Predicting which adult patients will need treatment over the next year

Patient history as a predictor of future treatment need? Considerations from a dataset containing over nine million courses of treatment

Aim It is the aim of this paper to consider whether overall patient treatment history per se and what length of patient history, matters in predicting future treatment need.Methods This study used a data set (SN7024, available from UKDataService), consisting of treatment records for General Dental Services' (GDS) patients, this being obtained from all items of service payment records for patients treated in the GDS of England and Wales between 1990 and 2006. For the purpose of this study, the GDS dataset for patients attending in 2003 was restricted to adult patients (aged 18 or over on 31 December 1990; that is, year of birth earlier than 1973) who attended in both two-year periods 1991/2 and 2004/5. Each course of treatment was classified as 'active' (eg restoration, extraction, prosthesis) or 'not active' (eg prevention, diagnosis). Treatment costs for 2001-2005 (outcome), 2000 (one-year history), 1999-2000 (two-year history) and so on until 1991-2000 (ten-year history) were determined, and history and outcome correlated.Results A total of 455,844 patients met the inclusion criteria, namely adults with a full history. They received 9,341,583 courses of treatment, of which 49% were classified as 'active' and 51% as 'not active'. The analysis indicated that both total costs and active treatment costs are positively correlated with their historical values, with the correlation coefficients increasing from 0.24 and 0.25 with one year of history to 0.42 and 0.44 with ten years of history. Overall, therefore, future treatment cost is correlated with past treatment costs.Conclusions Treatment history may provide an important correlate of future dental treatment needs and the more history the better, at least up to five years. However, active treatment is the important component and should be distinguished from preventive and diagnostic treatments.

Extraction of teeth over 5 years in regularly attending adults

OBJECTIVES

This prospective study was conducted to describe the incidence of tooth extraction in a group of regularly attending adults and to assess factors that are predictive of tooth loss.

METHODS

Baseline and annual incremental clinical data were obtained from 23 general dental practitioners on a group of their regularly attending, dentate adult patients over a 5-year period. The patients completed a postal questionnaire with questions relating to dental health behaviours, attitudes and knowledge, and social factors.

RESULTS

Complete clinical data were obtained from 2799 patients. Four hundred and seventy (17%) patients underwent extractions, 72% of which were posterior teeth. The majority of extractions were for reasons other than caries (79%). Bivariate analyses revealed many significant differences between patients who underwent extractions and those who did not, with respect to the clinical, social, behavioural and attitudinal variables. The logistic regression model for tooth loss included three clinical variables, number of teeth, crowns and sites with recession. Other variables in the final model included the dentist's and patient's prediction of treatment need, having sensitive teeth, having a sweet tooth, living alone and smoking. The sensitivity for the model was 0.57 with specificity 0.72.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is unique in its examination of patients and has highlighted that both clinical and other factors are important in predicting who will undergo extractions. Future investigations should assess the consequence of having extractions in terms of health benefit or detriment.