Prognostic markers: data misinterpretation often leads to overoptimistic conclusions

An early increase in endothelial protein C receptor is associated with excess mortality in pneumococcal pneumonia with septic shock in the ICU

BACKGROUND

This study investigated changes in plasma level of soluble endothelial protein C receptor (sEPCR) in association with outcome in patients with septic shock. We explored sEPCR for early sepsis prognosis assessment and constructed a scoring system based on clinical and biological data, in order to discriminate between surviving at hospital discharge and non-surviving patients.

METHODS

Clinical data and samples were extracted from the prospective "STREPTOGENE" cohort. We enrolled 278 patients, from 50 intensive care units (ICUs), with septic shock caused by pneumococcal pneumonia. Patients were divided into survivors (n = 194) and non-survivors (n = 84) based on in-hospital mortality. Soluble EPCR plasma levels were quantified at day 1 (D1) and day 2 (D2) by ELISA. The EPCR gene A3 haplotype was determined. Patients were followed up until hospital discharge. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed. A scoring system was constructed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) logistic regression for selecting predictive variables.

RESULTS

In-hospital mortality was 30.2% (n = 84). Plasma sEPCR level was significantly higher at D1 and D2 in non-surviving patients compared to patients surviving to hospital discharge (p = 0.0447 and 0.0047, respectively). Early increase in sEPCR at D2 was found in non-survivors while a decrease was observed in the survival group (p = 0.0268). EPCR A3 polymorphism was not associated with mortality. Baseline sEPCR level and its variation from D1 to D2 were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. The scoring system including sEPCR predicted mortality with an AUC of 0.75.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings confirm that high plasma sEPCR and its increase at D2 are associated with poor outcome in sepsis and thus we propose sEPCR as a key player in the pathogenesis of sepsis and as a potential biomarker of sepsis outcome.

A useful scoring system for the prediction and management of delayed graft function following kidney transplantation from cadaveric donors

Delayed graft function (DGF) is a common complication in kidney transplantation and is known to be correlated with short- and long-term graft outcomes. Here we explored the possibility of developing a simple tool that could predict with good confidence the occurrence of DGF and could be helpful in current clinical practice. We built a score, tentatively called DGFS, from a French multicenter and prospective cohort of 1844 adult recipients of deceased donor kidneys collected since 2007, and computerized in the Données Informatisées et VAlidées en Transplantation databank. Only five explicative variables (cold ischemia time, donor age, donor serum creatinine, recipient body mass index, and induction therapy) contributed significantly to the DGF prediction. These were associated with a good predictive capacity (area under the ROC curve at 0.73). The DGFS calculation is facilitated by an application available on smartphones, tablets, or computers at www.divat.fr/en/online-calculators/dgfs. The DGFS should allow the simple classification of patients according to their DGF risk at the time of transplantation, and thus allow tailored-specific management or therapeutic strategies.