Global eradication of rinderpest. Yea or nay?

Quantitative impacts of incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus

The current investigation applied a Bayesian modeling approach to a unique experimental transmission study to estimate the occurrence of transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) during the incubation phase amongst group-housed pigs. The primary outcome was that transmission occurred approximately one day prior to development of visible signs of disease (posterior median 21 hours, 95% CI: 1.1-45.0). Updated disease state durations were incorporated into a simulation model to examine the importance of addressing preclinical transmission in the face of robust response measures. Simulation of FMD outbreaks in the US pig production sector demonstrated that including a preclinical infectious period of one day would result in a 40% increase in the median number of farms affected (166 additional farms and 664,912 pigs euthanized) compared to the scenario of no preclinical transmission, assuming suboptimal outbreak response. These findings emphasize the importance of considering transmission of FMD during the incubation phase in modeling and response planning.

A world without parasites: exploring the hidden ecology of infection

Parasites have historically been considered a scourge, deserving of annihilation. Although parasite eradications rank among humanity's greatest achievements, new research is shedding light on the collateral effects of parasite loss. Here, we explore a "world without parasites": a thought experiment for illuminating the ecological roles that parasites play in ecosystems. While there is robust evidence for the effects of parasites on host individuals (eg affecting host vital rates), this exercise highlights how little we know about the influence of parasites on communities and ecosystems (eg altering energy flow through food webs). We present hypotheses for novel, interesting, and general effects of parasites. These hypotheses are largely untested, and should be considered a springboard for future research. While many uncertainties exist, the available evidence suggests that a world without parasites would be very different from the world we know, with effects extending from host individuals to populations, communities, and even ecosystems.

Cattle scourge no more. The eradication of rinderpest and its lessons for global health campaigns

In 2011, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) officially declared rinderpest eradicated. This cattle virus, which has historically had significant political, economic, and social consequences, is only the second infectious disease to disappear from the face of the planet due to concerted human actions. This paper explores the effects that rinderpest has had historically, chronicles the actions of the Global Rinderpest Eradication Campaign (GREP), and discusses the lessons that GREP can offer for combating other infectious diseases. I argue that rinderpest's unique viral characteristics made eradication particularly feasible, but that GREP's activities offer important lessons for fostering international cooperation on controlling infectious disease outbreaks.