Demographers and the study of mortality: scope, perspectives, and theory

Infant Death Clustering in the Quarter of a Century in India: A Decomposition Analysis

The study aims to examine the clustering of infant deaths in India and the relative contribution of infant death clustering after accounting for the socio-economic and biodemographic factors that explain the decline in infant deaths. The study utilized 10 years of birth history data from three rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS). The random effects dynamic probit model was used to decompose the decline in infant deaths into the contributions by the socio-economic and demographic factors, including the lagged independent variable, the previous infant death measuring the clustering of infant deaths in families. The study found that there has been a decline in the clustering of infant deaths among families during the past two and half decades. The simulation result shows that if the clustering of infant deaths in families in India was completely removed, there would be a decline of nearly 30 percent in the infant mortality rate (IMR). A decomposition analysis based on the dynamic probit model shows that for NFHS-1 and NFHS-3, in the total change of the probability of infant deaths, the rate of change for a given population composition contributed around 45 percent, and about 44 percent was explained by a compositional shift. Between NFHS-3 and NFHS-4, the rate of change for a given population composition contributed 86%, and the population composition for a given rate contributed 10% to the total change in the probability of infant deaths. Within this rate, the contribution of a previous infant was 0.8% and the mother's age was 10%; nearly 31% was contributed by the region of residence, 69% by the mother's education, and around 20% was contributed by the wealth index and around 8.7% by the sex of the child. The mother's unobserved factors contributed more than 50 percent to the variability of infant deaths in all the survey rounds and was also statistically significant (p < 0.01). Bivariate analysis suggests that women with two or more infant losses were much less likely to have full immunization (10%) than women with no infant loss (62%), although institutional delivery was high among both groups of women.

Care Life Expectancy: Gender and Unpaid Work in the Context of Population Aging

Amid growing concern regarding the potential added burden of care due to population aging, we have very little understanding of what is the burden of care in aging populations. To answer this question, we introduce a novel metric that encompasses demographic complexity and social context to summarize unpaid family care work provided to children, elderly, and other family members across the life cycle at a population level. The measure (Care Life Expectancy), an application of the Sullivan method, estimates the number of years and proportion of adult life that people spend in an unpaid caregiving role. We demonstrate the value of the metric by using it to describe gender differences in unpaid care work in 23 European aging countries. We find that at age 15, women and men are expected to be in an unpaid caregiving role for over half of their remaining life. For women in most of the countries, over half of those years will involve high-level caregiving for a family member. We also find that men lag in caregiving across most countries, even when using the lowest threshold of caregiving. As we show here, demographic techniques can be used to enhance our understanding of the gendered implications of population aging, particularly as they relate to policy research and public debate.

Local application of bacteria improves safety of Salmonella -mediated tumor therapy and retains advantages of systemic infection

Cancer is a devastating disease and a large socio-economic burden. Novel therapeutic solutions are on the rise, although a cure remains elusive. Application of microorganisms represents an ancient therapeutic strategy, lately revoked and refined via simultaneous attenuation and amelioration of pathogenic properties. Salmonella Typhimurium has prevailed in preclinical development. Yet, using virulent strains for systemic treatment might cause severe side effects. In the present study, we highlight a modified strain based on Salmonella Typhimurium UK-1 expressing hexa-acylated Lipid A. We corroborate improved anti-tumor properties of this strain and investigate to which extent an intra-tumoral (i.t.) route of infection could help improve safety and retain advantages of systemic intravenous (i.v.) application. Our results show that i.t. infection exhibits therapeutic efficacy against CT26 and F1.A11 tumors similar to a systemic route of inoculation. Moreover, i.t. application allows extensive dose titration without compromising tumor colonization. Adverse colonization of healthy organs was generally reduced via i.t. infection and accompanied by less body weight loss of the murine host. Despite local application, adjuvanticity remained, and a CT26-specific CD8⁺ T cell response was effectively stimulated. Most interestingly, also secondary tumors could be targeted with this strategy, thereby extending the unique tumor targeting ability of Salmonella. The i.t. route of inoculation may reap the benefits of systemic infection and aid in safety assurance while directing potency of an oncolytic vector to where it is most needed, namely the primary tumor.

Burden of cancer mortality and differences attributable to demographic aging and risk factors in Argentina, 1986-2011

The world faces an aging population that implies a large number of people affected with chronic diseases. Argentina has reached an advanced stage of demographic transition and presents a comparatively high rate of cancer mortality within Latin America. The objectives of this study were to examine cancer mortality trends in the province of Córdoba, Argentina, between 1986 and 2011, and to analyze the differences attributable to risk variations and demographic changes. Longitudinal series of age-standardized mortality rates for overall, breast and prostate cancers were modeled by Joinpoint regression to estimate the annual percent change. The Bashir & Estève method was used to split crude mortality rate variation into three components: mortality risk, population age structure and population size. A decreasing cancer age-standardized mortality rates trend was observed (1986-2011 annual percent change: -1.4, 95%CI: -1.6, -1.2 in men; -0.8, 95%CI: -1.0, -0.6 in women), with a significant shift in 1996. There were positive crude mortality rate net changes for overall female cancer, breast and prostate cancers, which were primarily attributable to demographic changes. Inversely, overall male cancer crude mortality rate showed a 9.15% decrease, mostly due to mortality risk. Despite favorable age-standardized mortality rates trends, the influence of population aging reinforces the challenge to control cancer in populations with an increasingly aged demographic structure.

Demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions: are they relevant to population health patterns in Africa?

BACKGROUND

Studies of trends in population changes and epidemiological profiles in the developing world have overwhelmingly relied upon the concepts of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions, even though their usefulness in describing and understanding population and health trends in developing countries has been repeatedly called into question. The issue is particularly relevant for the study of population health patterns in Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, as the history and experience there differs substantially from that of Western Europe and North America, for which these concepts were originally developed.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is two-fold: to review and clarify any distinction between the concepts of demographic transition, epidemiological transition and health transition and to identify summary indicators of population health to test how well these concepts apply in Africa.

RESULTS

Notwithstanding the characteristically diverse African context, Africa is a continent of uncertainties and emergencies where discontinuities and interruptions of health, disease, and mortality trends reflect the enduring fragility and instability of countries and the vulnerabilities of individuals and populations in the continent. Africa as a whole remains the furthest behind the world's regions in terms of health improvements and longevity, as do its sub-Saharan African regions and societies specifically. This study documents: 1) theoretically and empirically the similarities and differences between the demographic transition, epidemiological transition, and health transition; 2) simple summary indicators that can be used to evaluate their descriptive and predictive features; 3) marked disparities in the onset and pace of variations and divergent trends in health, disease, and mortality patterns as well as fertility and life expectancy trajectories among African countries and regions over the past 60 years; 4) the rapid decline in infant mortality and gains in life expectancy from the 1950s through the 1990s in a context of preponderant communicable diseases in all African countries; 5) the salient role of adult mortality, mostly ascribed to HIV/AIDS and co-morbidities, since the 1990s in reversing trends in mortality decline, its interruption of life expectancy improvements, and its reversal of gender differences in life expectancies disadvantaging women in several countries with the highest prevalence of HIV/AIDS; 6) the huge impact of wars in reversing the trends in under-five mortality decline in sub-Saharan countries in the 1990s and beyond. These assessments of these transition frameworks and these phenomena were not well documented to date for all five regions and 57 countries of Africa.

CONCLUSION

Prevailing frameworks of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions as descriptive and predictive models are incomplete or irrelevant for charting the population and health experiences and prospects of national populations in the African context.

Declining stroke and myocardial infarction mortality between 1989 and 2010 in a country of the african region

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

In low- and middle-income countries, the total burden of cardiovascular diseases is expected to increase due to demographic and epidemiological transitions. However, data on cause-specific mortality are lacking in sub-Saharan Africa. Seychelles is one of the few countries in the region where all deaths are registered and medically certified. In this study, we examine trends in mortality for stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) between 1989 and 2010.

METHODS

Based on vital statistics, we ascertained stroke and MI as the cause of death if appearing in any of the 4 fields for immediate, intermediate, underlying, and contributory causes in death certificates.

RESULTS

Mortality rates (per 100 000, age-standardized to World Health Organization standard population) decreased from 1669/710 (men/women) in 1989 to 1991 to 1113/535 in 2008-10 for all causes, from 250/140 to 141/86 for stroke, and from 117/51 to 59/24 for MI, corresponding to proportionate decreases of 33%/25% for all-cause mortality, 44%/39% for stroke, and 50%/53% for MI over 22 years. The absolute number of stroke and MI deaths did not increase over time. In 2008 to 2010, the median age of death was 65/78 years (men/women) for all causes, 68/78 for stroke, and 66/73 for MI.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 1989 and 2010, age-standardized stroke and MI mortality decreased markedly and more rapidly than all-cause mortality. The absolute number of cardiovascular disease deaths did not increase over time because the impact of population aging was fully compensated by the decline in cardiovascular disease mortality. Stroke mortality remained high, emphasizing the need to strengthen cardiovascular disease prevention and control.

Receding horizons of health: biocultural approaches to public health paradoxes

Worldwide challenges to health reflect a "paradox of success," whereby both the strengths and the weaknesses of current approaches in public health, epidemiology, and biomedicine have determined the nature of the health problems we now face. In detail, we analyze and illustrate five constituent paradoxes that fuel continued health risk even in the face of success, including: (1) unmasking, (2) local biology, (3) socialization, (4) emerging and reemerging disease, and (5) savage inequity. We trace the pathways behind the paradoxes and their effects on health, and demonstrate that biocultural dynamics are involved in each. Furthermore, we track the roots of health paradox to changes that divert or disrupt pathways for production of health. These analyses contribute to an emerging literature of research and praxis on integrative biocultural models of health.