Serum models accurately predict liver-related clinical outcomes in chronic hepatitis C

Noninvasive Fibrosis Assessment in Chronic Hepatitis C Infection: An Update

Liver biopsy is historically the gold standard for liver fibrosis assessment of chronic hepatitis C patients. However, with the introduction and validation of noninvasive tests (NITs) to evaluate advanced fibrosis, and the direct-acting antiviral agents for treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV), the role of NITs have become even more complex. There is now need for longitudinal monitoring and elucidation of cutoff values for prediction of liver-related complication after sustained virological response. The aim of this report is to provide a critical overview of the various NITs available for the assessment of liver fibrosis in HCV patients.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Serum Biomarker Test for Risk-Stratified Liver Ultrasound Screening for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

Risk-stratified ultrasound screening for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), informed by a serum biomarker test, enables resources to be targeted to patients at the highest risk of developing cancer. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified screening for HCC in the Australian healthcare system.

METHODS

A Markov cohort model was constructed to test 3 scenarios for patients with compensated cirrhosis: (1) risk-stratified screening for high-risk patients, (2) all-inclusive screening, and (3) no formal screening. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken to determine the impact of uncertainty. Scenario analyses were used to assess cost-effectiveness in Australia's Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and to determine the impact of including productivity-related costs of mortality.

RESULTS

Both risk-stratified screening and all-inclusive screening programs were cost-effective compared with no formal screening, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of A$39 045 and A$23 090 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), respectively. All-inclusive screening had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of A$4453 compared with risk-stratified screening and had the highest probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of A$50 000 per QALY. Risk-stratified screening had the highest likelihood of cost-effectiveness when the WTP was between A$25 000 and A$35 000 per QALY. Cost-effectiveness results were further strengthened when applied to an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cohort and when productivity costs were included.

CONCLUSIONS

Cirrhosis population-wide screening for HCC is likely to be cost-effective in Australia. Risk-stratified screening using a serum biomarker test may be cost-effective at lower WTP thresholds.

Serum Marker Panels for Predicting Liver Fibrosis - An Update

Fibrosis prediction is an essential part of the assessment and management of patients with chronic liver disease. Traditionally the gold standard for assessment of fibrosis is liver biopsy, but it suffers from various limitations including risk of patient injury and sampling error. As a result, noninvasive tests of hepatic fibrosis have been used in patients with chronic liver disease due to conditions such as hepatitis B and C, and alcoholic and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. With the advent of new direct-acting antivirals, hepatic fibrosis staging is an important component of treatment decisions in the care of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection. Current limitations of the noninvasive biomarker models include a significant indeterminate range, and a predictive ability that is limited to only a few stages of fibrosis. However newer technologies and novel proteins identified by proteomics and genomics offer the possibility for further refinement and individualisation of biomarker fibrosis models in the future.

Implementation of Value-based Medicine (VBM) to Patients With Chronic Hepatitis C (HCV) Infection

INTRODUCTION

With the significant clinical and economic burden of chronic HCV, effective treatment must be provided efficiently and appropriately. VBM is predicated upon improving health outcomes (clinical and quality) while optimizing the cost of delivering these outcomes. This review explores the concepts of VBM and how it can be used as a strategy for HCV eradication, using the United States as a case example. Once treated with interferon-based regimens, patients with HCV experienced low cure rates, very poor health-related quality of life (HRQoL), decreased work productivity and significant costs. In this context, the old treatment of HCV produced little value to the patient and the society. However, the development of new antiviral regimens for HCV which are free of interferon, has greatly improved treatment success rates as documented with very high cure rates and by improving patient-reported outcomes (PROs), including HRQoL. However, the short-term economic investment to deliver this curative treatment to all HCV-infected patients can be sizeable. In contrast, if one takes the long-term view from the societal perspective, these new treatment regimens can lead to savings by reducing the costs of long-term complications of HCV infection.

CONCLUSIONS

All of the necessary tools are now available to implement strategies to eradicate HCV. The new all oral direct acting antivirals brings value to the patients and the society because it leads to improvements of clinically important outcomes. Furthermore, the costs associated with these treatment regimens can be recovered by preventing the future economic burden of HCV-complications.

Index serum hyaluronic acid independently and accurately predicts mortality in patients with liver disease

BACKGROUND

Hyaluronic acid is a recognised noninvasive marker of liver fibrosis. However, its prognostic ability has not been extensively studied.

AIMS

To investigate the ability of an index serum hyaluronic acid measurement to independently predict transplant-free survival in patients with liver disease of varying aetiology and severity.

METHODS

This was a retrospective single-centre cohort study. Serum hyaluronic acid was measured at the discretion of the attending clinicians, in patients attending the liver clinic, to assess disease severity. Patients with a hyaluronic acid measurement between 1995 and 2010 were identified. Patient characteristics at the point of hyaluronic acid measurement were recorded from medical records. Follow-up was from date of index hyaluronic acid measurement to date of death, date of transplant or censor date (July 01, 2015). Primary outcomes were all-cause and liver-related mortality. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to compare survival in 3 patient groups with hyaluronic acid levels of <100 μg/L, 100-300 μg/L and >300 μg/L. Survival models were constructed using Cox proportional hazard and prediction accuracy was assessed by Harrell's C-statistic.

RESULTS

Five hundred and eighty nine patients fulfilled inclusion criteria. Median follow-up was 5.6 years (range 0.1-19.7). Transplant-free survival was significantly different between patients with hyaluronic acid <100 μg/L, 100-300 μg/L and >300 μg/L for liver-related as well as all-cause mortality (P < 0.001). Hyaluronic acid level was an independent predictor of survival (liver-related: HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.20-1.60, P < 0.001; all-cause: HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.06, P = 0.001). The liver-related prediction accuracy of hyaluronic acid was 0.74 (Standard error 0.03).

CONCLUSION

Index hyaluronic acid measurement can accurately and independently predict liver-related and all-cause mortality in patients with liver disease.

Improved Hepascore in hepatitis C predicts reversal in risk of adverse outcome

AIM

To establish if serial Hepascore tests (referred to as delta Hepascore) in those with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) correlate with the increase and/or decrease in risk of liver related complications.

METHODS

Three hundred and forty-six CHC patients who had two Hepascore tests performed were studied. During 1944 patient years follow-up 28 (8.1%) reached an endpoint. The Hepascore is a serum test that provides clinically useful data regarding the stage of liver fibrosis and subsequent clinical outcomes in chronic liver disease.

RESULTS

Patients with a baseline Hepascore > 0.75 had a significantly increased rate of reaching a composite endpoint consisting of hepatocellular carcinoma, liver death, and/or decompensation (P < 0.001). In those with an initial Hepascore > 0.75, a subsequent improved Hepascore showed a significantly decreased risk for the composite endpoint (P = 0.004). There were no negative outcomes in those with a stable or improved delta Hepascore. The minimum time between tests that was found to give a statically significant result was in those greater than one year (P = 0.03).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, Hepascore is an accurate predictor of liver related mortality and liver related morbidity in CHC patients. Of note, we have found that there is a decreased risk of mortality and morbidity in CHC patients when the patient has an improving delta Hepascore. Repeat Hepascore tests, when performed at a minimum one-year interval, may be of value in routine clinical practice to predict liver related clinical outcomes and to guide patient management.