CHESS-ALARM score to stratify decompensation risk in compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients: An international multicenter study

Comparing serial and current liver stiffness measurements to predict decompensation in compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The utility of serial liver stiffness measurements (LSM) to predict decompensation in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) remains unclear. We aimed to validate whether comparing serial LSM is superior to using the current LSM to predict liver-related events (LRE) in patients with cACLD.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

In this retrospective analysis of an international registry, patients with cACLD and serial LSM were followed up until index LRE. We compared the performance of both the dynamic LSM changes and the current LSM in predicting LRE using Cox regression analysis, considering time zero of follow-up as the date of latest liver stiffness measurement. In all, 480 patients with cACLD with serial LSM were included from 5 countries. The commonest etiology of cACLD was viral (53%) and MASLD (34%). Over a median follow-up of 68 (IQR: 45 -92) months, 32% experienced a LSM decrease to levels below 10kPa (resolved cACLD) and 5.8% experienced LRE. Resolved cACLD were more likely to be nondiabetic and had better liver function. While a higher value of the current LSM was associated with higher LREs, LSM changes over time (LSM slope) were not associated with LRE. In multivariable Cox regression, neither the prior LSM nor the LSM slope added predictive value to latest liver stiffness measurement.

CONCLUSIONS

Once the current LSM is known, previous LSM values do not add to the prediction of LREs in patients with cACLD.

Serum liver fibrosis markers predict hepatic decompensation in compensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The literature is sparse on the association between serum liver fibrosis markers and the development of hepatic decompensation in patients with compensated cirrhosis. We aimed to assessed whether the serum liver fibrosis markers are predictive of the occurrence of hepatic decompensation.

METHODS

We ascertained 688 cirrhotic patients with varying etiologies, between December 2015 to December 2019. Serum hyaluronic acid (HA), laminin (LN), collagen IV (CIV), and N-terminal propeptide of type III collagen (PIIINP) levels were measured at enrollment. All subjects were followed for at least 6 months for occurrence of hepatic decompensation. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) of hepatic decompensation during follow-up.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 22.0 (13.0-32.0) months, decompensation occurred in 69 (10.0%) patients. Multivariate analysis indicated that higher LN (HR: 1.008, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.002-1.014, P = 0.011) and CIV (HR: 1.004, 95% CI: 1.001-1.007, P = 0.003) levels were independently associated with hepatic decompensation. Furthermore, patients in the tertile 2 and tertile 3 groups for CIV levels had HRs of 4.787 (1.419, 16.152) (P = 0.012) and 5.153 (1.508, 17.604) (P = 0.009), respectively, for occurrence of decompensation event compared with those in the tertile 1 group.

CONCLUSION

Serum liver fibrosis markers, particularly in CIV, appeared to be reliable biomarkers of disease progression and liver decompensation in patients with compensated cirrhosis with varying etiologies.