Noninvasive risk assessment of hepatic decompensation in patients with hepatitis B virus-related liver cirrhosis

Identification of multiple complications as independent risk factors associated with 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality in hepatitis B-associated cirrhosis patients

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B-associated cirrhosis (HBC) is associated with severe complications and adverse clinical outcomes. This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for the occurrence of multiple complications (three or more) in patients with HBC and to explore the effects of multiple complications on HBC prognosis.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, data from 121 HBC patients treated at Nanjing Second Hospital from February 2009 to November 2019 were analysed. The maximum follow-up period was 10.75 years, with a median of 5.75 years. Eight machine learning techniques were employed to construct predictive models, including C5.0, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), k-nearest neighbour (KNN), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), support vector machine (SVM), generalised linear model (GLM) and naive Bayes (NB), utilising variables such as medical history, demographics, clinical signs, and laboratory test results. Model performance was evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, residual analysis, calibration curve analysis, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The influence of multiple complications on HBC survival time was assessed via Kaplan‒Meier curve analysis. Furthermore, LASSO and univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) in patients with HBC, followed by ROC, C-index, calibration curve, and DCA curve analyses of the constructed prognostic nomogram model. This study utilized bootstrap resampling for internal validation and employed the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database for external validation.

RESULTS

The GBDT model exhibited the highest area under the curve (AUC) and emerged as the optimal model for predicting the occurrence of multiple complications. The key predictive factors included posthospitalisation fever (PHF), body mass index (BMI), retinol binding protein (RBP), total bilirubin (TB) levels, and eosinophils (EOS). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that patients with multiple complications had significantly worse OS than those with fewer complications. Additionally, multivariable Cox regression analysis, informed by least absolute shrinkage and LASSO selection, identified hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), multiple complications, and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels as independent prognostic factors for OS. The prognostic model demonstrated 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS ROC AUCs of 0.802, 0.793, and 0.817, respectively. For the internal validation cohort, the corresponding AUC values were 0.797, 0.832, and 0.835. In contrast, the external validation cohort yielded a 1-year ROC AUC of 0.707. Calibration curves indicated good consistency of the model, and DCA demonstrated the model's clinical utility, showing high net benefits within certain threshold ranges. Compared with the univariable models, the multivariable ROC curves indicated higher AUC values for this prognostic model, and the model also possessed the best c-index.

CONCLUSION

The GBDT prediction model provides a reliable tool for the early identification of high-risk HBC patients prone to developing multiple complications. The concurrent occurrence of multiple complications is an independent prognostic factor for OS in patients with HBC. The constructed prognostic model demonstrated remarkable predictive performance and clinical applicability, indicating its crucial role in enhancing patient outcomes through timely and targeted interventions.

Assessment of human Herpes Virus-8 infection in Iranian cirrhotic patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation: A cross-sectional analysis

Background

Human Herpes Virus 8 (HHV-8) is involved in autoimmunity. However, its association with advanced liver disease has not been fully explained. Herein, the prevalence of HHV-8 viremia was assessed in Iranian liver transplant candidates with a confirmed diagnosis of cirrhosis.

Methods

This cross-sectional study was conducted on 230 patients with cryptogenic cirrhosis, virus-related cirrhosis, and autoimmune hepatitis, as well as 140 healthy blood donors from April 2022 to September 2023. The HHV-8 IgG antibody concentration and viral load were evaluated via ELISA and RT‒PCR, respectively.

Results

Anti-HHV-8 IgG antibodies were detected in 25 cirrhotic patients (10.8 %) and four healthy individuals (2.6 %) (p = 0.022). The majority of the seropositive patients had cryptogenic cirrhosis (20.4 %), followed by autoimmune hepatitis (13.1 %) and virus-related cirrhosis (4.7 %). The seropositivity of HHV-8 IgG antibody was significantly different among the etiologies of liver cirrhosis (p = 0.011). However, HHV-8 genomic DNA was not detected in the sera of the patients or healthy blood donors.

Conclusion

The role of HHV-8 infection in the development of posttransplant diseases, together with the higher seroprevalence of HHV-8 antibodies in cirrhotic patients than in healthy individuals, highlights the importance of both primary and latent infections in liver transplantation. Therefore, serological and molecular screening of HHV-8 is highly suggested for liver transplant candidates and organ donors. The possibility of antibody-mediated epitope mimicry in cryptogenic and autoimmune groups with moderate HHV-8 antibody positivity and negative viral loads may account for the development of advanced liver diseases.

FibroScan® versus Biochemical Scores: A Study of Liver Fibrosis in HIV with HBV Co-Infection

The study aimed to determine liver fibrosis in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive individuals using transient elastography (FibroScan®), Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score, and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) in the HIV Department from Infectious Diseases Hospital "Victor Babeș" Craiova, Romania. Of the analyzed HIV-positive subjects (n = 161), 93 (57.76%) had HIV mono-infection, and 68 (42.24%) had Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) co-infection. The prevalence of advanced liver fibrosis was higher (F2: 11.76% and F3: 13.24%, F4: 4.41%) in the HIV-HBV co-infected group compared to the HIV mono-infected group. The univariate and multivariate analysis identified HBV co-infection (OR = 5.73) male sex (OR = 5.34), serum aspartate amino-transferase levels (Pearson's rho = 0.273), low platelet count (Pearson's rho = -0.149) and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (OR = 1.030) as risk factors for the presence of liver fibrosis. Body mass index (OR = 1.08), serum lipid levels (OR = 0.96), viral load at diagnosis (OR = 1.00005), and low CD4+ cell count (OR = 0.977) were also correlated with liver fibrosis. The FIB-4 and APRI scores were strongly correlated with each other. In conclusion, HBV co-infection seems to be a determinant factor for liver fibrosis development in people living with HIV, together with other risk factors.

Magnetic resonance elastography for the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B

Background and Aim

Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) is used for the evaluation of liver fibrosis; however, it remains unclear whether MRE-based liver stiffness is associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development, particularly in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

Methods

A total of 504 patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving MRE were enrolled. The primary endpoint was the association between MRE-based liver stiffness and HCC.

Results

In a cross-sectional analysis at the time of MRE measurement, the median (interquartile range) liver stiffness values in patients with presence or history of HCC and those without HCC were 3.68 (2.89-4.96) and 2.60 (2.22-3.45) kPa, respectively, and liver stiffness was significantly higher in patients with presence or history of HCC than in those without HCC (P < 0.001). In a longitudinal analysis of patients without HCC, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC in patients with liver stiffness ≥3.6 kPa and those with liver stiffness <3.6 kPa were 3.8%, 7.0%, and 22.9%, and 0%, 0.9%, and 1.5%, respectively (P < 0.001). In the multivariable analysis, MRE-based liver stiffness (per 1 kPa) or liver stiffness ≥3.6 kPa was an independent factor for HCC development with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 1.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-2.0) or aHR of 8.22 (95% CI, 2.1-31).

Conclusion

MRE-based liver stiffness is associated with HCC risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B and may be used for the early prediction of HCC development and determination of indications for treatment.