Misdiagnosis of Chikungunya Virus Infection: Comparison of Old and Younger Adults

Model-based estimates of chikungunya epidemiological parameters and outbreak risk from varied data types

Assessing the factors responsible for differences in outbreak severity for the same pathogen is a challenging task, since outbreak data are often incomplete and may vary in type across outbreaks (e.g., daily case counts, serology, cases per household). We propose that outbreaks described with varied data types can be directly compared by using those data to estimate a common set of epidemiological parameters. To demonstrate this for chikungunya virus (CHIKV), we developed a realistic model of CHIKV transmission, along with a Bayesian inference method that accommodates any type of outbreak data that can be simulated. The inference method makes use of the fact that all data types arise from the same transmission process, which is simulated by the model. We applied these tools to data from three real-world outbreaks of CHIKV in Italy, Cambodia, and Bangladesh to estimate nine model parameters. We found that these populations differed in several parameters, including pre-existing immunity and house-to-house differences in mosquito activity. These differences resulted in posterior predictions of local CHIKV transmission risk that varied nearly fourfold: 16% in Italy, 28% in Cambodia, and 62% in Bangladesh. Our inference method and model can be applied to improve understanding of the epidemiology of CHIKV and other pathogens for which outbreaks are described with varied data types.

Statistical modeling for identifying chikungunya high-risk areas of two large-scale outbreaks in Thailand's southernmost provinces

Chikungunya fever (CHIKF) has re-emerged in the southernmost Thailand and presents a significant threat to public health. The problem areas can be identified using appropriate statistical models. This study aimed to determine the geographic epidemic patterns and high-risk locations. Data on CHIKF's case characteristics, including age, gender, and residence sub-district, were obtained from the Office of Disease Prevention and Control of Thailand from 2008 to 2020. A logistic model was applied to detect illness occurrences. After removing records with no cases, a log-linear regression model was used to determine the incidence rate. The results revealed that two large-scale infections occurred in the southernmost provinces of Thailand between 2008 and 2010, and again between 2018 and 2020, indicating a 10-year epidemic cycle. The CHIKF occurrence in the first and second outbreaks was 28.4% and 15.5%, respectively. In both outbreaks of occurrence CHIKF, adolescents and working-age groups were the most infected groups but the high incidence rate of CHIKF was elderly groups. The first outbreak had a high occurrence and incidence rate in 39 sub-districts, the majority of which were in Narathiwat province, whilst the second outbreak was identified in 15 sub-districts, the majority of which were in Pattani province. In conclusion, the CHIKF outbreak areas can be identified and addressed by combining logistic and log-linear models in a two-step process. The findings of this study can serve as a guide for developing a surveillance strategy or an earlier plan to manage or prevent the CHIKF outbreak.

Tackling the global health threat of arboviruses: An appraisal of the three holistic approaches to health

Background: The rapid circulation of arboviruses in the human population has been linked with changes in climatic, environmental, and socio-economic conditions. These changes are known to alter the transmission cycles of arboviruses involving the anthropophilic vectors and thus facilitate an extensive geographical distribution of medically important arboviral diseases, thereby posing a significant health threat. Using our current understanding and assessment of relevant literature, this review aimed to understand the underlying factors promoting the spread of arboviruses and how the three most renowned interdisciplinary and holistic approaches to health such as One Health, Eco-Health, and Planetary Health can be a panacea for control of arboviruses. Methods: A comprehensive structured search of relevant databases such as Medline, PubMed, WHO, Scopus, Science Direct, DOAJ, AJOL, and Google Scholar was conducted to identify recent articles on arboviruses and holistic approaches to health using the keywords including "arboviral diseases", "arbovirus vectors", "arboviral infections", "epidemiology of arboviruses", "holistic approaches", "One Health", "Eco-Health", and "Planetary Health". Results: Changes in climatic factors like temperature, humidity, and precipitation support the growth, breeding, and fecundity of arthropod vectors transmitting the arboviral diseases. Increased human migration and urbanization due to socio-economic factors play an important role in population increase leading to the rapid geographical distribution of arthropod vectors and transmission of arboviral diseases. Medical factors like misdiagnosis and misclassification also contribute to the spread of arboviruses. Conclusion: This review highlights two important findings: First, climatic, environmental, socio-economic, and medical factors influence the constant distributions of arthropod vectors. Second, either of the three holistic approaches or a combination of any two can be adopted on arboviral disease control. Our findings underline the need for holistic approaches as the best strategy to mitigating and controlling the emerging and reemerging arboviruses.

Contribution of Research in the West Indies and Northeast Amazonia to Knowledge of the 2014-2015 Chikungunya Epidemic in the Americas

Purpose of Review

Although the chikungunya virus was discovered more than 60 years ago, it has only really been studied since the outbreak in La Reunion in 2005-2006. Ten years later, between 2014 and 2015, the chikungunya virus spread throughout the Americas, affecting millions of people. The objective of this review is to describe the contributions of research on chikungunya virus infection gained from epidemic in the West Indies and the Guiana Shield.

Recent Findings

Prevalence data were similar to those found in the Indian Ocean or Asia during epidemics. Clinically, there is now a better understanding of the typical, atypical, and severe forms. Several studies have insisted on the presence of neurological forms of chikungunya infection, such as encephalitis or Guillain-Barré syndrome. Cases of septic shock due to chikungunya virus as well as thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura were described for the first time. Given the magnitude of the epidemic and the large number of people affected, this has led to a better description and new classifications of chikungunya virus infections in specific populations such as pregnant women, the elderly, and children. Several studies also described the behavior of populations faced with an emerging disease.

Summary

Current epidemiological data from tropical regions highlights the risk of spreading emerging diseases at higher latitudes, especially concerning arboviruses, since the vector Aedes albopictus is already established in many parts of northern countries. A better understanding of the disease and its epidemic dynamics will foster better management, the crucial importance of which was demonstrated during the COVID-19 epidemic.

Prevalence of chronic chikungunya and associated risks factors in the French West Indies (La Martinique): A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a re-emerging alphavirus that can cause chronic and potentially incapacitating rheumatic musculoskeletal disorders known as chronic chikungunya arthritis (CCA). We conducted a prospective cohort study of CHIKV-infected subjects during the 2013 chikungunya outbreak in Martinique. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of CCA at 12 months and to search for acute phase factors significantly associated with chronicity.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A total of 193 patients who tested positive for CHIKV RNA via qRT-PCR underwent clinical investigations in the acute phase (<21 days), and then 3, 6, and 12 months after inclusion. The Asian lineage was identified as the circulating genotype. A total of 167 participants were classified as either with or without CCA, and were analyzed using logistic regression models. The overall prevalence of CCA at 12 months was 52.1% (95%CI: 44.5-59.7). In univariate analysis, age (RD 9.62, 95% CI, 4.87;14.38, p<0.0001), female sex (RD 15.5, 95% CI, 1.03;30.0, p = 0.04), headache (RD 15.42, 95% CI, 0.65;30.18 p = 0.04), vertigo (RD 15.33, 95% CI, 1.47;29.19, p = 0.03), vomiting (RD 12.89, 95% CI, 1.54;24.24, p = 0.03), dyspnea (RD 13.53, 95% CI, 0.73;26.33, p = 0.04), intravenous rehydration (RD -16.12, 95% CI, -31.58; -0.66 p = 0.04) and urea (RD 0.66, 95% CI, 0.12;1.20, p = 0.02) were significantly associated with the development of CCA. For the subpopulation with data on joint involvement in the acute phase, the risk factors significantly associated with CCA were at least one 1 enthesitis (RD 16.7, 95%CI, 2.8; 30.7, p = 0.02) and at least one tenosynovitis (RD 16.8, 95% CI, 1.4-32.2, p = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

This cohort study conducted in Martinique confirms that CCA is a common complication of acute chikungunya disease. Our analysis emphasized the importance of age and female sex for CCA occurrence, and highlighted the aggravating role of dehydration during the acute phase. Early and adequate hydration were found to reduce the risk chronic chikungunya disorders.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01099852).

Beyond Fever and Pain: Diagnostic Methods for Chikungunya Virus

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an alphavirus that is primarily transmitted by Aedes species mosquitoes. Though reports of an illness consistent with chikungunya date back over 200 years, CHIKV only gained worldwide attention during a massive pandemic that began in East Africa in 2004. Chikungunya, the clinical illness caused by CHIKV, is characterized by a rapid onset of high fever and debilitating joint pain, though in practice, etiologic confirmation of CHIKV requires the availability and use of specific laboratory diagnostics. Similar to infections caused by other arboviruses, CHIKV infections are most commonly detected with a combination of molecular and serological methods, though cell culture and antigen detection are reported. This review provides an overview of available CHIKV diagnostics and highlights aspects of basic virology and epidemiology that pertain to viral detection. Although the number of chikungunya cases has decreased since 2014, CHIKV has become endemic in countries across the tropics and will continue to cause sporadic outbreaks in naive individuals. Consistent access to accurate diagnostics is needed to detect individual cases and initiate timely responses to new outbreaks.

Long-term survival and clinical forms in the acute phase of Chikungunya virus infection in older Caribbeans

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether the long-term survival in elderly patients with prior Chikungunya virus infection (CVI) is associated with the clinical form presented in the acute phase, as defined by the WHO classification.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study performed in Martinique University Hospitals. Patients who attended the emergency department for suspected CVI, and who had a positive biological diagnosis of CVI by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction on a plasma sample between 10 January and 31 December 2014 were eligible for inclusion. Time-to-death was the primary outcome. The independent relationship between clinical forms and time-to-death was analysed using a Cox model.

RESULTS

In total, 268 patients were included. Mean age was 80 ± 8 years, 53% were women. Median length of follow-up was 28 months (range: 0-39). During follow-up, 53 (19.8%) patients died. Median survival time was 13.2 months (range: 0-33.6). At the end of follow-up, death rates were 4.6% for acute clinical cases, 19.0% for atypical cases, 19.2% for severe acute cases and 23.5% for unclassifiable cases. By multivariable analysis, the clinical form of CVI at admission was found to be independently associated with long-term survival (atypical form: HR = 2.38; 95% CI = 2.15-2.62; severe acute form: HR = 2.40; 95% CI = 2.17-2.64; unclassifiable form: HR = 2.28; 95% CI = 2.06-2.51).

CONCLUSION

The clinical form at presentation with CVI has a significant impact on long-term survival. Management of CVI patients should be tailored according to their clinical form at admission.