Clinical impact of treatment timing for chronic hepatitis C infection: a decision model

The health impact of delaying direct-acting antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis C: A decision-analytic approach

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are highly effective, but expensive treatments for chronic hepatitis C (CHC). To manage costs, drug plans worldwide have rationed access to DAAs in a variety of ways. This study quantifies the health impact of formulary restrictions and presents a clinical decision tool for informing treatment timing decisions.

METHODS

A decision-analytic model was developed to quantify the health impact of delaying DAAs for subpopulations stratified by age, fibrosis level, viral genotype, and injection drug use over their lifetime. The health impact was quantified in terms of quality-adjusted life expectancy (quality-adjusted life years, or QALYs) and life expectancy (years).

RESULTS

Deferring DAAs for patients with no or mild fibrosis (F0/F1) for 1-5 years is unlikely to result in life expectancy losses and leads only to marginal losses of 0.02-0.06 QALYs per year of delay. However, for 30-50-year-olds with advanced fibrosis (≥F3) delays as short as a year results in a considerable health loss (0.25-1.04 QALYs and 0.19-1.53 years). Reimbursement limits for those with substance use are associated with large health losses. People who actively inject drugs with advanced fibrosis (≥F3) may lose 0.18-1.05 QALYs and 0.13-1.16 years per year of delay, despite the risk of reinfection and competing mortality. Results are robust to parameter uncertainty and key assumptions.

CONCLUSIONS

We present a clinical decision tool for informing treatment timing for various CHC subpopulations. In general, findings suggest that patients with at least moderate fibrosis should be treated promptly regardless of active drug use.

The Optimal Timing of Hepatitis C Therapy in Transplant Eligible Patients With Child B and C Cirrhosis: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

Ledipasvir (LDV)/sofosbuvir (SOF) has demonstrated high efficacy, safety, and tolerability in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients. There is limited data, however, regarding the optimal timing of therapy in the context of possible liver transplantation (LT).

METHODS

We compared the cost-effectiveness of 12 weeks of HCV therapy before or after LT or nontreatment using a decision analytical microsimulation state-transition model for a simulated cohort of 10 000 patients with HCV Genotype 1 or 4 with Child B or C cirrhosis. All model parameters regarding the efficacy of therapy, adverse events and the effect of therapy on changes in model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were derived from the SOLAR-1 and 2 trials. The simulations were repeated with 10 000 samples from the parameter distributions. The primary outcome was cost (2014 US dollars) per quality adjusted life year.

RESULTS

Treatment before LT yielded more quality-adjusted life year for less money than treatment after LT or nontreatment. Treatment before LT was cost-effective in 100% of samples at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US $100 000 in the base-case and when the analysis was restricted to Child B alone, Child C, or MELD > 15. Treatment before transplant was not cost-effective when MELD was 6-10. In sensitivity analyses, the MELD after which treatment before transplant was cost-effective was 13 and the maximum cost of LDV/SOF therapy at which treatment before LT is cost-effective is US $177 381.

CONCLUSIONS

From a societal perspective, HCV therapy using LDV/SOF with ribavirin before LT is the most cost-effective strategy for patients with decompensated cirrhosis and MELD score greater than 13.

Real-world effectiveness for 12 weeks of ledipasvir-sofosbuvir for genotype 1 hepatitis C: the Trio Health study

Early data regarding the "real-world" experience with novel therapies for hepatitis C (HCV) are encouraging. Data are still limited, however, regarding real-world rates of sustained virologic response (SVR) for ledipasvir-sofosbuvir (LDV-SOF), particularly for patients with prior treatment failure. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1597 patients with chronic genotype 1 HCV who were treated using 12 weeks of the following regimens LDV-SOF±ribavirin (RBV) (n=1521 without RBV, n=76 with RBV). The primary outcome was SVR-determined at 12 weeks in an intention-to-treat design. Prescription according to Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved labelling (adding RBV for patients with cirrhosis and treatment failure) was assessed in multivariate models. The study population was aged 60 years on average (range 19-89), 60% male, 50% Caucasian, 43% cared for at an academic centre and 30% cirrhotic. Overall, LDV-SOF resulted in a 94% SVR rate. Only 44 (2.9%) patients relapsed. LDV-SOF+RBV yielded SVR in 97% with 0 viral relapses. While cirrhosis and thrombocytopenia were associated with lower odds of SVR, in a multivariable regression model, only treatment at an academic centre and prescriptions contrary to FDA labelling were significantly associated with lower SVR-odds ratios, 0.56 95% CI (0.35-0.87) and 0.29 95% CI(0.12-0.68), respectively. The real-world experience with LDV-SOF mirrors the SVR rates observed in clinical trials. Efforts to promote prescription within FDA recommendations are warranted.

Limiting the access to direct-acting antivirals against HCV: an ethical dilemma

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection affects about 200 million people worldwide and represents a leading cause of liver-related mortality. Eradication of HCV infection, achieved mainly through direct-acting antivirals (DAA), results in a decrease of mortality and an improvement of quality of life. These drugs have a maximal efficacy and an optimal tolerability. However, their high cost precludes a universal access even in wealthy countries. Areas covered: This article deals with the policies adopted for the use of the new anti-HCV drugs, especially in Europe and most of all in Italy, supposedly the developed country with the highest HCV prevalence. The literature search was performed using Pubmed and Web of Science. Moreover, national regulatory institutional websites were consulted. Expert commentary: The current policy of limitation to the access of the DAA presents a series of ethical issues that makes it non-applicable. A 'treat-all' strategy should resolve all ethical dilemmas, by virtue of the wide benefits of anti-HCV treatment not only for the advanced stage of infection, but also for the initial stages. A reduction in price of the drugs is the actual condition to achieve such a change.

Estimating the Impact of Expanding Treatment Coverage and Allocation Strategies for Chronic Hepatitis C in a Direct Antiviral Agent Era

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is an important worldwide public health problem, and most of the global HCV burden is in low- to middle-income countries. This study aimed to estimate the future burden of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and the impact of public health policies using novel antiviral agents in Thailand. A mathematical model of CHC transmission dynamics was constructed to examine the disease burden over the next 20 years using different treatment strategies. We compared and evaluated the current treatment (PEGylated interferon and ribavirin) with new treatments using novel direct-acting antiviral agents among various treatment policies. Thailand’s CHC prevalence was estimated to decrease 1.09%–0.19% in 2015–2035. Expanding treatment coverage (i.e., a five-fold increment in treatment accessibility) was estimated to decrease cumulative deaths (33,007 deaths avoided, 25.5% reduction) from CHC-related decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The yearly incidence of HCC-associated HCV was estimated to decrease from 2,305 to 1,877 cases yearly with expanding treatment coverage. A generalized treatment scenario (i.e., an equal proportional distribution of available treatment to individuals at all disease stages according to the number of cases at each stage) was predicted to further reduce death from HCC (9,170 deaths avoided, 11.3% reduction) and the annual incidence of HCC (i.e., a further decrease from 1,877 to 1,168 cases yearly, 37.7% reduction), but cumulative deaths were predicted to increase (by 3,626 deaths, 3.7% increase). Based on the extensive coverage scenario and the generalized treatment scenario, we estimated near-zero death from decompensated cirrhosis in 2031. In conclusion, CHC-related morbidity and mortality in Thailand are estimated to decrease dramatically over the next 20 years. Treatment coverage and allocation strategies are important factors that affect the future burden of CHC in resource-limited countries like Thailand.

HLA-B18 as a risk factor of short-term progression to severe liver fibrosis in HIV/HCV co-infected patients with absent or minimal fibrosis: implications for timing of therapy

Our aim was to analyze the influence of HLA-B haplotypes on liver fibrosis progression in HIV/hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infected patients. Retrospective longitudinal study including HIV/HCV, non-cirrhotic and HCV treatment-naïve patients. The main outcome variable was liver fibrosis progression of at least one stage. One hundred and four patients constituted the study population (F0-F1: 62 (59.6%); F2: 22 (21.2%); F3: 20 (19.2%)). During a median follow-up of 54.5 months (IQR: 26.2-77), 45 patients (43.3%) showed an increase in the stage of liver fibrosis (time to event: 29 (IQR: 14-49.5) months). HLA-B18^pos patients more frequently had a higher and faster fibrosis progression rate (73.3%; 24 (IQR: 8-29) months) than HLA-B18^neg patients (38.2%; 34.5 (IQR: 14.7-51.2) months). This association was also observed in the development of F3-F4 fibrosis among F0-F2 patients (HLA-B18^pos: 69.2%; 18 (6.5-37) months vs HLA-B18^neg: 28.2%; 37 (IQR: 19-52) months). These results could impact the timing of HCV therapy in F0-F2 patients.

Duplex High-Resolution Melting Assay for the Simultaneous Genotyping of IL28B rs12979860 and PNPLA3 rs738409 Polymorphisms in Chronic Hepatitis C Patients

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is a major burden for public health worldwide. Although newer direct-acting antivirals show good efficacy, their cost precludes their wide adoption in resource-limited regions. Thus, strategies are being developed to help identify patients with high susceptibility to response to classic PEG-interferon + ribavirin therapy. IL28B polymorphism rs12979860 C/T is an important predictor for an efficient response to interferon-based therapy. A genetic variant in adiponutrin (PNPLA3) gene, rs738409 C/G, is associated with steatosis, severity, and progression of liver fibrosis in CHC patients, and predicts treatment outcome in difficult-to-cure HCV-infected patients with advanced fibrosis. We developed a rapid and inexpensive assay based on duplex high-resolution melting (HRM) for the simultaneous genotyping of these two polymorphisms. The assay validation was performed on synthetic DNA templates and 132 clinical samples from CHC patients. When compared with allele-specific PCR and sequencing, our assay showed 100% (95% CI: 0.9724-1) accuracy, with 100% sensitivity and specificity. Our assay was robust against concentration and quality of DNA samples, melting curve normalization intervals, HRM analysis algorithm, and sequence variations near the targeted SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphism). This duplex assay should provide useful information for patient-oriented management and clinical decision-making in CHC.

HCV: the best cure possible or the best possible cure?

Progress in medicine goes along with an exponential growth of the cost of drugs and devices. While any person has the right to obtain the best possible benefit from medical care, a state needs to strike a balance between granting the optimal personal benefit to each individual and the needs of the society as a whole. Health systems in all countries therefore are facing a huge problem of distributive justice, as while they should guarantee individual rights, among which the right to health in its broader sense, including physical, psychological and social well-being (therefore not limited to healing, but extending to compliance and quality of life), they must also grant equal access to the healthcare resources and keep the distribution system sustainable.