The consideration of heart rate complexity as a co-morbidity factor for liver transplantation selection procedures

Application of short-term analysis of skin temperature variability in prediction of survival in patients with cirrhosis

Background: Liver cirrhosis is a complex disorder, involving several different organ systems and physiological network disruption. Various physiological markers have been developed for survival modelling in patients with cirrhosis. Reduction in heart rate variability and skin temperature variability have been shown to predict mortality in cirrhosis, with the potential to aid clinical prognostication. We have recently reported that short-term skin temperature variability analysis can predict survival independently of the severity of liver failure in cirrhosis. However, in previous reports, 24-h skin temperature recordings were used, which are often not feasible in the context of routine clinical practice. The purpose of this study was to determine the shortest length of time from 24-h proximal temperature recordings that can accurately and independently predict 12-month survival post-recording in patients with cirrhosis. Methods: Forty individuals diagnosed with cirrhosis participated in this study and wireless temperature sensors (iButtons) were used to record patients' proximal skin temperature. From 24-h temperature recordings, different length of recordings (30 min, 1, 2, 3 and 6 h) were extracted sequentially for temperature variability analysis using the Extended Poincaré plot to quantify both short-term (SD1) and long-term (SD2) variability. These patients were then subsequently followed for a period of 12 months, during which data was gathered concerning any cases of mortality. Results: Cirrhosis was associated with significantly decreased proximal skin temperature fluctuations among individuals who did not survive, across all durations of daytime temperature recordings lasting 1 hour or more. Survival analysis showcased 1-h daytime proximal skin temperature time-series to be significant predictors of survival in cirrhosis, whereby SD2, was found to be independent to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and thus, the extent of disease severity. As expected, longer durations of time-series were also predictors of mortality for the majority of the temperature variability indices. Conclusion: Crucially, this study suggests that 1-h proximal skin temperature recordings are sufficient in length to accurately predict 12-month survival in patients with cirrhosis, independent from current prognostic indicators used in the clinic such as MELD.

The mechanistic and prognostic implications of heart rate variability analysis in patients with cirrhosis

Chronic liver damage leads to scarring of the liver tissue and ultimately a systemic illness known as cirrhosis. Patients with cirrhosis exhibit multi-organ dysfunction and high mortality. Reduced heart rate variability (HRV) is a hallmark of cirrhosis, reflecting a state of defective cardiovascular control and physiological network disruption. Several lines of evidence have revealed that decreased HRV holds prognostic information and can predict survival of patients independent of the severity of liver disease. Thus, the aim of this review is to shed light on the mechanistic and prognostic implications of HRV analysis in patients with cirrhosis. Notably, several studies have extensively highlighted the critical role systemic inflammation elicits in conferring the reduction in patients' HRV. It appears that IL-6 is likely to play a central mechanistic role, whereby its levels also correlate with manifestations, such as autonomic neuropathy and hence the partial uncoupling of the cardiac pacemaker from autonomic control. Reduced HRV has also been reported to be highly correlated with the severity of hepatic encephalopathy, potentially through systemic inflammation affecting specific brain regions, involved in both cognitive function and autonomic regulation. In general, the prognostic ability of HRV analysis holds immense potential in improving survival rates for patients with cirrhosis, as it may indeed be added to current prognostic indicators, to ultimately increase the accuracy of selecting the recipient most in need of liver transplantation. However, a network physiology approach in the future is critical to delineate the exact mechanistic basis by which decreased HRV confers poor prognosis.

Skin temperature variability is an independent predictor of survival in patients with cirrhosis

Background

Cirrhosis is a disease with multisystem involvement. It has been documented that patients with cirrhosis exhibit abnormal patterns of fluctuation in their body temperature. However, the clinical significance of this phenomenon is not well understood. The aim of this study was to determine if temperature variability analysis can predict survival in patients with cirrhosis.

Methods

Thirty eight inpatients with cirrhosis were enrolled in the study. Wireless temperature sensors were used to record patients’ proximal skin temperature for 24 hr. The pattern of proximal temperature fluctuation was assessed using the extended Poincaré plot to measure short‐term and long‐term proximal temperature variability (PTV). Patients were followed up for 12 months, and information was collected on the occurrence of death/liver transplantation.

Results

During the follow‐up period, 15 patients (39%) died or underwent transplantation for hepatic decompensation. Basal proximal skin temperature absolute values were comparable in survivors and nonsurvivors. However, nonsurvivors showed a significant reduction in both short‐term and long‐term HRV indices. Cox regression analysis showed that both short‐term and long‐term PTV indices could predict survival in these patients. However, only measures of short‐term PTV were shown to be independent of the severity of hepatic failure in predicting survival. Finally, the prognostic value of short‐term PTV was also independent of heart rate variability, that is, a measure of autonomic dysfunction.

Conclusion

Changes in the pattern of patients’ temperature fluctuations, rather than their absolute values, hold key prognostic information, suggesting that impaired thermoregulation may play an important role in the pathophysiology of cirrhosis.

Heart rate variability in patients with cirrhosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background. Cirrhosis is associated with abnormal autonomic function and regulation of cardiac rhythm. Measurement of heart rate variability (HRV) provides an accurate and non-invasive measurement of autonomic function as well as liver disease severity currently calculated using the MELD, UKELD, or Child-Pugh scores. This review assesses the methods employed for the measurement of HRV, and evaluates the alteration of HRV indices in cirrhosis, as well as their value in prognosis.Method.We undertook a systematic review using Medline, Embase and Pubmed databases in July 2020. Data were extracted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The risk of bias of the included studies was assessed by a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. The descriptive studies were analysed and the standardized mean differences of HRV indices were pooled.Results.Of the 247 studies generated from our search, 14 studies were included. One of the 14 studies was excluded from meta-analysis because it reported only the median of HRV indices. The studies included have a low risk of bias and include 583 patients with cirrhosis and 349 healthy controls. The HRV time and frequency domains were significantly lower in cirrhotic patients. Between-studies heterogeneity was high in most of the pooled studies (P < 0.05). Further, HRV indices predict survival independent of the severity of liver disease as assessed by MELD.Conclusion.HRV is decreased in patients with cirrhosis compared with healthy matched controls. HRV correlated with severity of liver disease and independently predicted survival. There was considerable variation in the methods used for HRV analysis, and this impedes interpretation and clinical applicability. Based on the data analysed, the standard deviation of inter-beat intervals (SDNN) and SDNN corrected for basal heart rate (cSDNN) are the most suitable indices for prognosis in patients with cirrhosis.

Heart Rate Turbulence Predicts Survival Independently From Severity of Liver Dysfunction in Patients With Cirrhosis

Background

Reduced heart rate variability (HRV) is an independent predictor of mortality in patients with cirrhosis. However, conventional HRV indices can only be interpreted in individuals with normal sinus rhythm. In patients with recurrent premature ventricular complexes (PVCs), the predictive capacity of conventional HRV indices is compromised. Heart Rate Turbulence (HRT) represents the biphasic change of the heart rate after PVCs. This study was aimed to define whether HRT parameters could predict mortality in cirrhotic patients.

Materials and Methods

24 h electrocardiogram recordings were collected from 40 cirrhotic patients. Turbulence Onset was calculated as HRT indices. The enrolled patients were followed up for 12 months after the recruitment in relation to survival and/or transplantation.

Results

During the follow-up period, 21 patients (52.5%) survived, 12 patients (30%) died and 7 patients (17.5%) had liver transplantation. Turbulence Onset was found to be strongly linked with mortality on Cox regression (Hazard ratio = 1.351, p < 0.05). Moreover, Turbulence Onset predicted mortality independently of MELD and Child-Pugh's Score.

Conclusion

This study provides further evidence of autonomic dysfunction in cirrhosis and suggests that HRT is reliable alternative to HRV in patients with PVCs.

Which heart rate variability index is an independent predictor of mortality in cirrhosis?

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis is associated with reduced heart rate variability (HRV), which indicates impaired integrity of cardiovascular control in this patient population. There are several different indices for HRV quantification. The present study was designed to: 1) determine which of the HRV indices is best at predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis; 2) verify if such ability to predict mortality is independent of the severity of hepatic failure.

METHODS

Ten minutes electrocardiogram was recorded in 74 patients with cirrhosis. Heart rate fluctuations were quantified using statistical, geometrical and non-linear analysis. The patients were followed-up for 18months and information was collected on the occurrence of death/liver transplantation.

RESULTS

During the follow-up period, 24 patients (32%) died or were transplanted for hepatic decompensation. Cox's regression analysis showed that SDNN (total HRV), cSDNN (corrected SDNN), SD1 (short-term HRV), SD2 (long-terms HRV) and spectral indices could predict survival in these patients. However, only SD2 and cSDNN were shown to be independent of MELD in predicting survival. The prognostic value of HRV indices was independent of age, gender, use of beta blockers, and the aetiology of liver disease.

CONCLUSION

Two HRV indices were identified that could predict mortality in patients with cirrhosis, independently of MELD. These indices are potentially useful tools for survival prediction.