Albumin-bilirubin grade-based nomogram of the BCLC system for personalized prognostic prediction in hepatocellular carcinoma

A pathologic scoring system for predicting postoperative prognosis in patients with ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The accuracy of pathological factors to predict the prognosis of patients with ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma (rHCC) is unclear. We aimed to develop and validate a novel scoring system based on pathological factors to predict the postoperative survival of patients with rHCC.

METHOD

Patients with rHCC who underwent hepatectomy were recruited from three hospitals and allocated to the training (n = 221) and validation (n = 194) cohorts. A new scoring system, namely the MSE (microvascular invasion-satellite foci-Edmondson Steiner) score, was established based on three pathological factors using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses, including microvascular invasion, satellite foci, and differentiation grade. Finally, patients were stratified into three groups based on their risk of prognosis (low, intermediate, or high) according to their MSE score. We also constructed MSE score-based nomograms. The performance of the nomograms was assessed by receiver operating characteristic and calibration curve analyses and validated using the validation cohort.

RESULTS

Three pathological factors were significantly correlated with overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS), three of which were included in the MSE score. The score can clearly stratify rHCC patients after hepatectomy (P < 0.05). And we established nomograms based on the MSE score (MSE score, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, and alpha-fetoprotein concentration) to predict postoperative OS and RFS in patients with rHCC. The nomograms showed good discrimination, with C-indices over 0.760 for OS and RFS at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. The calibration curve showed excellent nomogram calibration, which was also verified in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

The clinical MSE score were accurate in predicting OS and RFS in patients with rHCC with resectable lesions after hepatectomy.

Performance status as a prognostic surrogate in hepatocellular carcinoma: Role of albumin-bilirubin and easy-albumin-bilirubin grade

BACKGROUND

Performance status (PS) is associated with the severity of liver cirrhosis and is also an important survival determinant in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and easy (EZ)-ALBI grade have been proposed to evaluate liver dysfunction in HCC, but their role in patients with different PS is unclear. We aimed to investigate the prognostic role of ALBI and EZ-ALBI grade in a large HCC cohort with variable PS.

METHODS

A total of 3355 newly diagnosed HCC patients between 2002 and 2018 were identified and retrospectively analyzed. Independent prognostic predictors associated with survival were investigated using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Patients with poor PS had decreased survival compared with those with good PS. In the Cox model, creatinine ≥1.2 mg/dL, α-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥20 ng/mL, vascular invasion, distant metastasis, total tumor volume >100 cm 3 , presence of ascites, ALBI grades 2 and 3, EZ-ALBI grade 2 and grade 3, PS 1-4, and noncurative treatment were independently associated with higher mortality in the entire cohort (all p < 0.001). ALBI grade and EZ-ALBI grade can well stratify overall survival in subgroup patients with PS 0, PS 1-2, and PS 3-4 (all p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Patients with good PS have better long-term survival compared with those with poor PS. ALBI and EZ-ALBI grade can discriminate long-term outcome in the entire cohort as well as in patients with different PS. ALBI and EZ-ALBI are objective and feasible prognostic models to evaluate liver dysfunction in HCC patients independent of PS.

Machine Learning-Based Development of Nomogram for Hepatocellular Carcinoma to Predict Acute Liver Function Deterioration After Drug-Eluting Beads Transarterial Chemoembolization

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

Acute liver function deterioration (ALFD) following drug-eluting beads transarterial chemotherapy embolism (DEB-TACE) was considered a risk factor for prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this study, we aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for the prediction of ALFD after DEB-TACE.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 288 patients with HCC from a single center were randomly divided into a training dataset (n = 201) and a validation dataset (n = 87). The univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine risk factors for ALFD. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was applied to identify the key risk factors and fit a model. The performance, calibration, and clinical utility of the predictive nomogram were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

LASSO regression analysis determined six risk factors with fibrosis index based on four factors (FIB-4) as the independent factor for the occurrence of ALFD after DEB-TACE. Gamma-glutamyltransferase, FIB-4, tumor extent, and portal vein invasion were integrated into the nomogram. In both the training and validation cohorts, the nomogram demonstrated promising discrimination with AUC of 0.762 and 0.878, respectively. The calibration curves and DCA revealed good calibration and clinical utility of the predictive nomogram.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram-based risk of ALFD stratification may improve clinical decision-making and surveillance protocols for patients with a high risk of ALFD after DEB-TACE.

Preoperative Radiomics Nomogram Based on CT Image Predicts Recurrence-Free Survival After Surgical Resection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

To construct preoperative models based on CT radiomics, radiologic and clinical features to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) after liver resection (LR) of BCLC 0 to B stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to classify the prognosis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study retrospectively analyzed 161 HCC patients who underwent radical LR. Two methods, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and random survival forest analysis, were performed for radiomics signature (RS) construction. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Cox regression analyses were performed to establish a combined nomogram (RCN) of RS and clinical parameters and a clinical nomogram (CN). The performance of the models was assessed comprehensively using Harrell's concordance index (C-index), the calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. The discrimination accuracy of the models was compared using integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI). The risk stratification effect was assessed with Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and subgroup analysis.

RESULTS

The RCN achieved a C-index of 0.792/0.758 in the training/validation set, which was higher than the CN, RS, and BCLC stage system. The discriminatory accuracy of the RCN was improved when compared to the CN, RS, and BCLC staging systems (IDI > 0). Decision curve analysis reflected the clinical net benefit of the RCN. The RCN allows risk stratification of patients in different clinical subgroups.

CONCLUSION

The integrated model combining RS and clinical factors can more effectively predict RFS after LR of BCLC 0 to B stage HCC patients and can effectively stratify the prognostic risk.

Tumor burden in patients with early and intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing liver resection: a retrospective multicenter study on clinical and oncological outcomes

BACKGROUND

According to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system, liver resection (LR) is recommended for early-stage (BCLC-A) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) but not for intermediate-stage (BCLC-B). This study aimed to assess the outcomes of LR in these patients using a subclassification tumour burden score (TBS).

METHODS

All consecutive patients that underwent LR for BCLC-A and BCLC-B HCC between 01/2010 and 12/2020 in 4 tertiary referral centers were included. Clinical outcomes and overall survival (OS) were assessed in relation to TBS and BCLC stages.

RESULTS

Among 612 patients included, 562 were classified as BCLC-A and 50 as BCLC-B. The incidence of overall postoperative complications (56.0 vs 41.5%, p = 0.053) and mortality (0 vs 1.6%, p = 1.000) were similar between BCLC-A and BCLC-B patients. OS was significantly higher for BCLC A/low TBS than BCLC B/low TBS (p = 0.009), while patients with medium and high TBS had similar OS, irrespective of BCLC stage (respectively p = 0.103 and p = 0.343).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with medium and high TBS had comparable OS and DFS, irrespective of BCLC A or B stage, and postoperative morbidity was comparable. These results highlight the need for refinement of the BCLC staging system, and LR could be considered for selected intermediate stage (BCLC-B) according to the tumour burden.

Tumor burden score-AFP-albumin-bilirubin grade score predicts the survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver resection

PURPOSE

There is little information regarding the overall survival (OS) predictive ability of the combination of tumor burden score (TBS), α-fetoprotein (AFP), and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Here, we aimed to develop a model including TBS, AFP, and ALBI grade to predict HCC patient OS following liver resection.

METHODS

Patients (N = 1556) from six centers were randomly divided 1:1 into training and validation sets. The X-Tile software was used to determine the optimal cutoff values. The time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated to assess the prognostic ability of the different models.

RESULTS

In the training set, tumor differentiation, TBS, AFP, ALBI grade, and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage were independently related to OS. According to the coefficient values of TBS, AFP, and ALBI grade, we developed the TBS-AFP-ALBI (TAA) score using a simplified point system (0, 2 for low/high TBS, 0, 1 for low/high AFP and 0,1 for ALBI grade 1/2). Patients were further divided into low TAA (TAA ≤ 1), medium TAA (TAA = 2-3), and high TAA (TAA= 4) groups. TAA scores (low: referent; medium, HR = 1.994, 95% CI = 1.492-2.666; high, HR = 2.413, 95% CI = 1.630-3.573) were independently associated with patient survival in the validation set. The TAA scores showed higher AUROCs than BCLC stage for the prediction of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS in both the training and validation sets.

CONCLUSION

TAA is a simple score that has better OS prediction performance than the BCLC stage in predicting OS for HCC patients after liver resection.

Prognostic Significance of Serum Albumin Level and Albumin-Based Mono- and Combination Biomarkers in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the predominant form of primary liver cancer. Although many surgical and nonsurgical therapeutic options have been established for treating HCC, the overall prognosis for HCC patients receiving different treatment modalities remains inadequate, which causes HCC to remain among the most life-threatening human cancers worldwide. Therefore, it is vitally important and urgently needed to develop valuable and independent prognostic biomarkers for the early prediction of poor prognosis in HCC patients, allowing more time for more timely and appropriate treatment to improve the survival of patients. As the most abundant protein in plasma, human serum albumin (ALB) is predominantly expressed by the liver and exhibits a wide variety of essential biological functions. It has been well recognized that serum ALB level is a significant independent biomarker for a broad spectrum of human diseases including cancer. Moreover, ALB has been commonly used as a potent biomaterial and therapeutic agent in clinical settings for the treatment of various human diseases. This review provides a comprehensive summary of the evidence from the up-to-date published literature to underscore the prognostic significance of serum ALB level and various ALB-based mono- and combination biomarkers in the prediction of the prognosis of HCC patients after treatment with different surgical, locoregional, and systemic therapies.

Prognostic Prediction for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Ascites: Role of Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) Grade and Easy (EZ)-ALBI Grade

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) often have co-existing ascites, which is a hallmark of liver decompensation. The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and EZ (easy)-ALBI grade are used to assess liver functional reserve in HCC, but the predictive accuracy of these two models in HCC patients with ascites is unclear. We aimed to determine the prognostic role of ALBI and EZ-ALBI grades in these patients. A total of 4431 HCC patients were prospectively enrolled and retrospectively analyzed. Independent prognostic predictors were identified by the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Of all patients, 995 (22.5%) patients had ascites. Grade 1, 2, and 3 ascites were found in 16%, 4%, and 3% of them, respectively. A higher ascites grade was associated with higher ALBI and EZ-ALBI scores and linked with decreased overall survival. In the Cox multivariate analysis, serum bilirubin level > 1.1 mg/dL, creatinine level ≥ 1.2 mg/dL, α-fetoprotein ≥ 20 ng/mL, total tumor volume > 100 cm3, vascular invasion, distant metastasis, poor performance status, ALBI grade 2 and 3, EZ-ALBI grade 2 and 3, and non-curative treatments were independently associated with increased mortality (all p < 0.05) among HCC patients with ascites. The ALBI and EZ-ALBI grade can adequately stratify overall survival in both the entire cohort and specifically in patients with ascites. Ascites is highly prevalent and independently predict patient survival in HCC. The ALBI and EZ-ALBI grade are feasible markers of liver dysfunction and can stratify long-term survival in HCC patients with ascites.

Cryptogenic hepatocellular carcinoma: characteristics, outcome, and prognostic role of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade vs easy ALBI grade

BACKGROUND

The characteristics and prognosis of cryptogenic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remain unclear. The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and its updated version, the easy ALBI (EZ-ALBI) grade, are important prognostic predictors for HCC. We aimed to investigate the long-term survival of patients with cryptogenic HCC and the prognostic role of ALBI and EZ-ALBI grade in these patients.

METHODS

A prospective cohort of 2,937 HCC patients with viral or cryptogenic etiology were retrospectively analyzed. The multivariate Cox model was used to determine prognostic predictors.

RESULTS

Cryptogenic HCC patients were often older and diabetic, had lower serum ɑ-fetoprotein (AFP) levels, larger tumor burden, poor performance status, advanced cancer stage, and received non-curative treatments compared with hepatitis B or C-related HCC. The Cox analysis showed that age > 65 years, serum AFP > 400 ng/mL, presence of vascular invasion or distant metastasis, presence of ascites, performance status 2-4, ALBI grade 2 and 3, EZ-ALBI grade 2 and 3, and non-curative treatment, were independent predictors of decreased survival in cryptogenic HCC (p < .001). Significant survival differences were found across ALBI grade and EZ-ALBI grade in cryptogenic HCC and subgroup patients receiving curative or non-curative treatments. The Cancer of Liver Italian Program was the best staging system for patients with cryptogenic HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with cryptogenic HCC have a larger tumor burden and advanced cancer stage at disease presentation compared with those with viral HCC. The ALBI and EZ-ALBI score are robust models to evaluate liver functional reserve for these patients independent of treatment modality.

Tumor burden score as a new prognostic surrogate in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing radiofrequency ablation: role of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade vs easy ALBI grade

INTRODUCTION

Tumor burden score (TBS) was proposed to represent tumor burden in solid tumors, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The prognostic role of TBS in HCC patients in relation to recently introduced liver reserve markers, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, and easy (EZ)-ALBI grade, is unclear. We aimed to investigate the feasibility of TBS in HCC patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 576 treatment-naïve patients with HCC undergoing RFA were analyzed. The multivariate Cox analysis was used to identify independent predictors associated with tumor recurrence and long-term survival.

RESULTS

Patients with high TBS had increased risk of tumor recurrence and mortality compared with those with low TBS. The Cox analysis showed that serum ɑ-fetoprotein (AFP) level >20 ng/mL, medium and high TBS, ALBI grade 2 and grade 3, EZ-ALBI grade 2 and grade 3 were associated with tumor recurrence and decreased patient survival (all p <0.05). In addition, TBS can reliably stratify tumor recurrence and overall survival in different ALBI and EZ-ALBI grade groups.

CONCLUSIONS

TBS is a simple and feasible prognostic surrogate to predict tumor recurrence and survival in HCC patients undergoing RFA. Its prognostic ability remains stable in patients with variable liver functional reserve.

Radiofrequency Ablation versus Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma within Milan Criteria: Prognostic Role of Tumor Burden Score

Tumor burden score (TBS), estimated by the diameter and number of tumor nodules, was recently proposed to assess the tumor burden in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to evaluate the prognostic impact of TBS on HCC patients within the Milan criteria undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA) or transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). A total of 883 patients undergoing RFA and TACE were included. The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine independent prognostic predictors in different patient cohorts. The TACE group had significantly higher TBS compared with the RFA group. The RFA group had better long-term survival than the TACE group in patients within the Milan criteria in univariate survival analysis. In the Cox model, serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) > 20 ng/mL, performance status 1−2, medium and high TBS, albumin−bilirubin (ALBI) grade 2 and grade 3 were independent predictors linked with mortality (all p < 0.001). Overall, TACE was not an independent predictor; among patients with low TBS, TACE was independently associated with decreased survival compared with RFA (p = 0.034). Conclusions: TBS is a feasible prognostic marker for HCC patients within the Milan criteria. TACE may be an effective treatment alternative for these patients. Among patients with low TBS, RFA should be considered the priority treatment modality.

Dual hepatitis B and C-associated hepatocellular carcinoma: clinical characteristics, outcome, and prognostic role of albumin-bilirubin grade

BACKGROUND

Albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade is used to evaluate the outcome of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) which is often associated with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. This study aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics, outcome, and prognostic role of ALBI grade in dual HBV/HCV-related HCC.

METHODS

A total 3341 HCC patients with viral etiology were prospectively enrolled and retrospectively analyzed. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify independent prognostic predictors.

RESULTS

Of all patients, 2083 (62%), 1068 (32%), and 190 (6%) patients had HBV, HCV, and dual HBV/HCV infection, respectively. The mean age of HBV, HCV, and dual virus group was 60, 68, and 64 years (p < 0.001), respectively. There was no significant survival difference between HBV, HCV, and dual HBV/HCV-related HCC group (p = 0.712). Multivariate Cox analysis in dual HBV/HCV-related HCC showed that multiple tumors [hazard ratio (HR): 1.537, p = 0.044], tumor size >3 cm (HR 2.014, p = 0.044), total tumor volume (TTV) >50 cm³ (HR 3.050, p < 0.001), vascular invasion (HR 3.258, p < 0.001), performance status 2-4 (HR 2.232, p < 0.001), ALBI grade 2-3 (HR 2.177, p < 0.001), and BCLC stage B-D (HR 2.479, p < 0.001) were independent predictors of poor survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Dual viral infection does not accelerate the development of HCC in HBV carriers. Patient survival is similar between dual HBV/HCV-related HCC and single HBV- or HCV-related HCC group. The ALBI grade is a robust prognostic model in dual virus-related HCC to discriminate patient long-term survival.

A New Tumor Burden Score and Albumin-Bilirubin Grade-Based Prognostic Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

The prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) varies widely due to variable tumor extent and liver reserve. We aimed to develop and validate a new prognostic model based on tumor burden score (TBS) and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade for HCC. We prospectively identified 3794 HCC patients who were randomized into derivation and validation groups. Survival predictors were evaluated by a multivariate Cox model. The TBS-ALBI system allocated two points for high TBS and ALBI grade 3, and one point each for the presence of ascites, serum α-fetoprotein ≥ 400 ng/mL, vascular invasion or distant metastasis, performance status 2-4, medium TBS, and ALBI grade 2, with a maximal score of 8 points. Significant survival differences were found across different TBS-ALBI score groups in the validation cohort (all p < 0.001). The TBS-ALBI system had the lowest corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc) and the highest homogeneity compared with other proposed staging models. The discriminative ability of the TBS-ALBI system was consistently stable across different viral etiologies, cancer stages, and treatment strategies. Conclusions: This new TBS-ALBI system is a feasible and robust prognostic system in comparison with other systems; it is a user-friendly tool for long-term outcome assessment independent of treatment modality and cancer stage in HCC.

Tumor burden score as a new prognostic marker for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing transarterial chemoembolization

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Size and number are major determinants of tumor burden in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Patients with HCC undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) have variable outcomes due to heterogeneity of tumor burden. Recently, tumor burden score (TBS) was proposed to evaluate the extent of tumor involvement. However, the prognostic accuracy of TBS has not been well evaluated in HCC. This study aimed to assess its prognostic role in HCC patients undergoing TACE.

METHODS

A total of 935 treatment-naïve HCC patients receiving TACE were retrospectively analyzed. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine independent prognostic predictors.

RESULTS

Tumor burden score tended to increase with increasing size and number of tumors in study patients. The Cox model showed that serum creatinine ≥ 1.2 mg/dL (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.296, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.077-1.559, P = 0.006), serum α-fetoprotein ≥ 400 ng/dL (HR: 2.245, 95% CI: 1.905-2.645, P < 0.001), vascular invasion (HR: 1.870, 95% CI: 1.520-2.301, P < 0.001), medium TBS (HR: 1.489, 95% CI: 1.206-1.839, P < 0.001) and high TBS (HR: 2.563, 95% CI: 1.823-3.602, P < 0.001), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade 2-3 (HR: 1.521, 95% CI: 1.291-1.792, P < 0.001), and performance status 1 (HR: 1.362, 95% CI: 1.127-1.647, P < 0.001) and status 2 (HR: 1.553, 95% CI: 1.237-1.948, P < 0.001) were associated with increased mortality. Patients with high TBS had poor overall survival in Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage B/C and different ALBI grades.

CONCLUSIONS

Tumor burden score is a feasible new prognostic surrogate marker of tumor burden in HCC and can well discriminate survival in patients undergoing TACE across different baseline characteristics.

Easy albumin-bilirubin score as a new prognostic predictor in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Liver functional reserve is a major prognostic determinant in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score is an objective method to assess the severity of cirrhosis in this setting. However, calculation of the ALBI score is complex and difficult to access in clinical practice. Recently, the EZ (easy)-ALBI score was proposed as an alternative biomarker of liver injury. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic role of the EZ-ALBI score in HCC from early to advanced stages.

METHODS

A total of 3794 newly diagnosed HCC patients were prospectively enrolled and retrospectively analyzed. Independent prognostic predictors were determined by using the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

The EZ-ALBI score showed good correlation with the ALBI score (correlation coefficient, 0.965; p < 0.001). The correlation of the EZ-ALBI score was highly preserved in different Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classifications, treatment methods, and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages (correlation coefficients, 0.90-0.97). In the Cox multivariate analysis, age >65 years, male sex, serum α-fetoprotein >20 ng/ml, large or multiple tumors, total tumor volume >100 cm³ , vascular invasion or distant metastasis, ascites, poor performance status, EZ-ALBI grade 2 and 3, and noncurative treatments were independently associated with increased mortality (all p < 0.05). Moreover, EZ-ALBI grade can stratify long-term survival in patients with different CTP class, treatment strategy, and BCLC stage.

CONCLUSIONS

The EZ-ALBI score is an easy and feasible method to evaluate liver functional reserve. As a new prognostic biomarker in HCC, the predictive power of the EZ-ALBI grade is independent across different cancer stages and treatments.

ALBI grade in dialysis patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: prognostic impact and staging strategy

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may develop end-stage renal disease and receive dialysis, but the impact of dialysis on the prognosis is unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the outcome of dialysis HCC patients and the prognostic role of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade in these patients.

METHODS

Among the consecutive 3,794 HCC patients between 2002-2017, 43 patients undergoing dialysis, and 129 age, sex-matched controls were analyzed. Multivariate Cox hazards model was used to identify independent prognostic predictors.

RESULTS

Dialysis patients had decreased overall survival when compared with non-dialysis patients (n=3,751) and matched controls (n=129; each P=0.004). Patients with ALBI grade 1 had the best survival in the pooled cohort of dialysis and matched controls (n=172). In the Cox model, total tumor volume >33 cm3 [hazard ratio (HR): 6.763, P<0.001], presence of ascites (HR: 6.168, P<0.001), dialysis duration less than 24 months (HR: 3.144, P=0.006), diabetes-related dialysis (HR: 9.366, P=0.001) and non-curative treatments (HR: 9.220, P<0.001) were poor prognosis factors associated with increase mortality among dialysis patients. Of the 9 currently-used HCC staging systems, the CLIP score was the optimal cancer staging for dialysis patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients receiving dialysis had decreased overall survival compared with non-dialysis patients. Longer duration of dialysis, non-diabetes related dialysis, absence of ascites, and curative treatments were associated with improved survival in these patients. The ALBI grade is a feasible prognostic model to evaluate liver functional reserve, and the CLIP model is the best staging system for dialysis patients with HCC.

Combination of albumin-bilirubin grade and clinically significant portal hypertension predicts the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver resection

There is little information concerning whether incorporating clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) into albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grading could improve its predictive capacity. In this study, we investigated the predictive ability of ALBI grade plus CSPH (ALBI-P score) for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver resection. Data from 1,679 patients were retrospectively reviewed. The ALBI-P score was calculated from the ALBI grade and a point for CSPH (0 for absence of CSPH and 1 for presence of CSPH). Independent risk factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed. Multivariate analysis suggested that the ALBI-P score was an independent risk factor for both postoperative recurrence (HR = 1.441, 95% CI = 1.328-1.563, P < 0.001) and mortality (HR = 1.332, 95% CI = 1.156-1.535, P < 0.001). Both the RFS and OS of patients with an ALBI-P score of 1 were significantly better than those of patients with ALBI-P scores of 2 and 3 (5-year RFS of 38.9%, 26.1%, and 14.7%, respectively, P < 0.001; 5-year OS of 52.7%, 42.6%, and 29.3%, P < 0.001). When the ALBI-P score and BCLC stage were combined, the ALBI-P-BCLC score showed the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict both postoperative recurrence and mortality compared with BCLC stage alone, BCLC stage combined with ALBI grade, or platelet-albumin-bilirubin grade. These results suggested incorporating CSPH into the ALBI grade could strengthen its prognostic power. The ALBI-P score may serve as a surrogate marker to predict HCC patient outcomes after liver resection.

AGLR is a novel index for the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients: a retrospective study

Background

Most hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients’ liver function indexes are abnormal. We aimed to investigate the relationship between (alkaline phosphatase + gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase)/lymphocyte ratio (AGLR) and the progression as well as the prognosis of HCC.

Methods

A total of 495 HCC patients undergoing radical hepatectomy were retrospectively analyzed. We randomly divided these patients into the training cohort (n = 248) and the validation cohort (n = 247). In the training cohort, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the optimal cut-off value of AGLR for predicting postoperative survival of HCC patients, and the predictive value of AGLR was evaluated by concordance index (C-index). Further analysis of clinical and biochemical data of patients and the correlation analysis between AGLR and other clinicopathological factors were finished. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify prognostic factors for HCC patients. Survival curves were analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method.

Results

According to the ROC curve analysis, the optimal predictive cut-off value of AGLR was 90. The C-index of AGLR was 0.637 in the training cohort and 0.654 in the validation cohort, respectively. Based on this value, the HCC patients were divided into the low-AGLR group (AGLR ≤ 90) and the high-AGLR group (AGLR > 90). Preoperative AGLR level was positively correlated with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), tumor size, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, and microvascular invasion (MVI) (all p < 0.05). In the training and validation cohorts, patients with AGLR > 90 had significantly shorter OS than patients with AGLR ≤ 90 (p < 0.001). Univariate and multivariate analyses of the training cohort (HR, 1.79; 95% CI 1.21–2.69; p < 0.001) and validation cohort (HR, 1.82; 95% CI 1.35–2.57; p < 0.001) had identified AGLR as an independent prognostic factor. A new prognostic scoring model was established based on the independent predictors determined in multivariate analysis.

Conclusions

The elevated preoperative AGLR level indicated poor prognosis for patients with HCC; the novel prognostic scoring model had favorable predictive capability for postoperative prognosis of HCC patients, which may bring convenience for clinical management.

Prognostic Model and Nomogram for Estimating Survival of Small Breast Cancer: A SEER-based Analysis

BACKGROUND

Different clinicopathologic characteristics could contribute to inconsistent prognoses of small breast neoplasms (T1a/T1b). This study was done to conduct a retrospective analysis and establish a clinical prediction model to predict individual survival outcomes of patients with small carcinomas of the breast.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, eligible patients with small breast carcinomas were analyzed. Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis were performed to clarify the indicators of overall survival. Pooling risk factors enabled nomograms to be constructed and further predicted 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year survival of patients with small breast cancer. The model was internally validated for discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

A total of 17,543 patients with small breast neoplasms diagnosed between 2013 and 2016 were enrolled. Histologic grade, lymph node stage, estrogen receptor or progesterone receptor status, and molecular subtypes of breast cancer were regarded as the risk factors of prognosis in a Cox proportional hazards model (P < .05). A nomogram was constructed to give predictive accuracy toward individual survival rate of patients with small breast neoplasms.

CONCLUSIONS

This prognostic model provided a robust and effective method to predict the prognosis of patients with small breast cancer.

Prognostic nomograms and risk classifications of outcomes in very early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma patients after hepatectomy

BACKGROUND

Numerous clinical models have been proposed to evaluate and predict recurrence and survival of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients in different stages after resection, but no model for very early-stage HCC.

METHODS

The data of 661 very early-stage HCC patients after curative resection in our hospital were retrospectively reviewed. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to analyze recurrence and survival. The risk classifications for recurrence and survival were established by using classification and regression tree analysis. The nomograms were constructed and validated using bootstrap resampling and an independent 186-patient validation cohort from the same institution.

RESULTS

According to the results of multivariate analysis for prognosis after resection, decision trees and 3-stratification classifications that satisfactorily determined the risk of recurrence and survival were established. Based on these two risk classifications, a six-factor nomogram for predicting recurrence and a six-factor nomogram for predicting survival were created. The concordance indexes were 0.64 for recurrence nomogram, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.60-0.67, and 0.76 for survival nomogram, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.70-0.82. The calibration curves showed good agreement between the predictions made by the nomograms and the actual survival outcomes. These predicting results for recurrence and survival were better than three common classical HCC stages and were confirmed in the independent validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The 3-stratification classifications enabled satisfactory risk evaluations of recurrence and survival, and the nomograms showed considerably accurate predictions of the risk of recurrence and survival in very early-stage HCC patients after curative resection.

The albumin-bilirubin score as a predictor of outcomes in Japanese patients with PBC: an analysis using time-dependent ROC

The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score is calculated using only serum albumin and bilirubin levels, and was developed as a simple method to assess hepatic function. In this study, a total of 409 patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) were enrolled between March 1990 and October 2018. The predictive performances of the ALBI score and other well-established prognostic scores were compared using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. During the follow-up period, 60 patients died, 45 due to liver-related diseases and 15 due to non-liver-related diseases, and 16 patients underwent liver transplantation. Time-dependent ROC analysis showed that the ALBI score has higher the areas under the ROC curves (AUROCs) than the Child-Pugh (C-P) score at each time point; AUROCs at 3, 5, and 10 years after the start of follow-up were 0.94, 0.91, and 0.90 for the ALBI score, and 0.89, 0.88, and 0.82 for the C-P score, respectively. The ALBI score showed the highest AUROCs within 2 years after the start of observation; beyond 2 years, however, the Mayo score had better prognostic ability for mortality and liver transplantation. The ALBI score/grade, derived from objective blood tests, and the Mayo score were superior prognostic tools in PBC patients.

Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and albumin bilirubin grade in hepatocellular carcinoma: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a frequent cause of cancer related death globally. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and albumin bilirubin (ALBI) grade are emerging prognostic indicators in HCC.

AIM

To study published literature of NLR and ALBI over the last five years, and to validate NLR and ALBI locally in our centre as indicators of HCC survival.

METHODS

A systematic review of the published literature on PubMed of NLR and ALBI in HCC over the last five years. The search followed the guidelines of the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Additionally, we also investigated HCC cases between December 2013 and December 2018 in our centre.

RESULTS

There were 54 studies describing the relation between HCC and NLR and 95 studies describing the relation between HCC and ALBI grade over the last five years. Our local cohort of patients showed NLR to have a significant negative relationship to survival (P = 0.011). There was also significant inverse relationship between the size of the largest HCC nodule and survival (P = 0.009). Median survival with alpha fetoprotein (AFP) < 10 KU/L was 20 mo and with AFP > 10 KU/L was 5 mo. We found that AFP was inversely related to survival, this relationship was not statically significant (P = 0.132). Mean survival for ALBI grade 1 was 37.7 mo, ALBI grade 2 was 13.4 months and ALBI grade 3 was 4.5 mo. ALBI grades performed better than Child Turcotte Pugh score in detecting death from HCC.

CONCLUSION

NLR and ALBI grade in HCC predict survival better than the conventional alpha fetoprotein. ALBI grade performs better than Child Turcotte Pugh score. These markers are done as part of routine clinical care and in cases of normal alpha fetoprotein, these markers could give a better understanding of the patient disease progression. NLR and ALBI grade could have a role in modified easier to learn staging and prognostic systems for HCC.

Survival of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Renal Insufficiency: Prognostic Role of Albumin-Bilirubin Grade

Renal insufficiency (RI) is commonly seen in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The prognostic role of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade in this special setting is unclear. We aimed to investigate the role of ALBI grade associated with the impact of RI on HCC. A prospective cohort of 3690 HCC patients between 2002 and 2016 were retrospectively analyzed. The Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model were used to determine survival and independent prognostic predictors. Of all patients, RI was an independent predictor associated with decreased survival. In multivariate Cox analysis for patients with RI, α-fetoprotein level ≥20 ng/mL, tumor size >3 cm, vascular invasion, distant metastasis, presence of ascites, performance status 1-2, performance status 3-4, and ALBI grade 2 and grade 3 were independent predictors of decreased survival (all p < 0.05). In subgroup analysis of patients with RI undergoing curative and non-curative treatments, the ALBI grade remained a significant prognostic predictor associated with decreased survival (p < 0.001). In summary, HCC patients with RI have decreased survival compared to those without RI. The ALBI grade can discriminate the survival in patients with RI independent of treatment strategy and is a feasible prognostic tool in this special patient population.

Nomogram Based on microRNA Signature Contributes to Improve Survival Prediction of Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma

Objective

Numerous microRNAs (miRNAs) have been identified in ccRCC and recommended to be used for predicting clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) prognosis. However, it is not clear whether a miRNA-based nomogram results in improved survival prediction in patients with ccRCC.

Methods

miRNA profiles from tumors and normal tissues were downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database and analyzed using the "limma" package. The association between differentially expressed miRNAs and patient prognosis was identified using univariate, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Next, all patients were randomly divided into development and validation cohorts at a ratio of 1 : 1. A nomogram was established based on independent prognostic factors in the development cohort. The prognostic performance of the nomogram was validated in both cohorts using the concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots.

Results

Multivariate Cox analysis identified the 13-miRNA signature, as well as AJCC stage and age, as independent prognostic factors after adjusting for other clinical covariates. The nomogram was built based on the independent variables. In the development cohort, the C-index for the constructed nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) was 0.792, which was higher than the C-index (0.731) of the AJCC staging system and C-index (0.778) of the miRNA signature. The nomogram demonstrated good discriminative ability in the validation cohort in predicting OS, with a C-index of 0.762. The calibration plots indicated an excellent agreement between the nomogram predicted survival probability and the actual observed outcomes. Furthermore, decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated that the nomogram was superior to the AJCC staging system in increasing the net clinical benefit.

Conclusions

The novel proposed nomogram based on a miRNA signature is a more reliable and robust tool for predicting the OS of patients with ccRCC compared to AJCC staging system, thus, improving clinical decision-making.