Suboptimal accuracy of GES score to stratify post-SVR HCC risk in a single center cohort of European cirrhotics infected with any HCV genotype

International multicenter validation of GES score for HCC risk stratification in chronic hepatitis C patients

We have recently demonstrated the ability of a simple predictive model (GES) score to determine the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after using direct-acting antivirals. However, our results were restricted to Egyptian patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 4. Therefore, we studied a large, independent cohort of multiethnic populations through our international collaborative activity. Depending on their GES scores, patients are stratified into low risk (≤ 6/12.5), intermediate risk (> 6-7.5/12.5), and high risk (> 7.5/12.5) for HCC. A total of 12,038 patients with chronic HCV were analyzed in this study, of whom 11,202 were recruited from 54 centers in France, Japan, India, the U.S., and Spain, and the remaining 836 were selected from the Gilead-sponsored randomized controlled trial conducted across the U.S., Europe, Canada, and Australia. Descriptive statistics and log-rank tests. The performance of the GES score was evaluated using Harrell's C-index (HCI). The GES score proved successful at stratifying all patients into 3 risk groups, namely low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk. It also displayed significant predictive value for HCC development in all participants (p < .0001), with HCI ranging from 0.55 to 0.76 among all cohorts after adjusting for HCV genotypes and patient ethnicities. The GES score can be used to stratify HCV patients into 3 categories of risk for HCC, namely low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk, irrespective of their ethnicities or HCV genotypes. This international multicenter validation may allow the use of GES score in individualized HCC risk-based surveillance programs.

HCC incidence after hepatitis C cure among patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

HCV cure reduces but does not eliminate the risk of HCC. HCC surveillance is recommended in populations where the incidence exceeds 1.5% per year. In cirrhosis, HCC surveillance should continue after HCV cure, although it is uncertain if this should be indefinite. For patients with advanced fibrosis (F3), guidelines are inconsistent in their recommendations. We evaluated the incidence of HCC after HCV cure among patients with F3 fibrosis or cirrhosis.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This systematic review and meta-analysis identified 44 studies (107,548 person-years of follow-up) assessing the incidence of HCC after HCV cure among patients with F3 fibrosis or cirrhosis. The incidence of HCC was 2.1 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 1.9-2.4) among patients with cirrhosis and 0.5 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 0.3-0.7) among patients with F3 fibrosis. In a meta-regression analysis among patients with cirrhosis, older age (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] per 10-year increase in mean/median age, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.00-1.73) and prior decompensation (aRR per 10% increase in the proportion of patients with prior decompensation, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.12) were associated with an increased incidence of HCC. Longer follow-up after HCV cure was associated with a decreased incidence of HCC (aRR per year increase in mean/median follow-up, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.79-0.96).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with cirrhosis, the incidence of HCC decreases over time after HCV cure and is lowest in patients with younger age and compensated cirrhosis. The substantially lower incidence in F3 fibrosis is below the recommended threshold for cost-effective screening. The results should encourage the development of validated predictive models that better identify at-risk individuals, especially among patients with F3 fibrosis.

Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Patients with Chronic HCV Infection and a Sustained Virological Response to Direct-Acting Antivirals

Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) may complicate with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), especially in patients with cirrhosis. Although the achievement of a sustained virological response (SVR) had been associated with a reduction in the risk of HCC already in the Interferon era, some concerns initially raised following the use of direct-acting antivirals (DAA), as their use was associated with increased risk of HCC development and aggressiveness. However, studies demonstrated that the risk of HCC was strongly influenced by pre-treatment fibrosis stage and, eventually, prior HCC history more than the type of antiviral therapy. According to published studies, rates of de-novo HCC ranged between 1.4% and 13.6% in patients with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis vs 0.9% and 5.9% in those with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Conversely, rates of recurrent HCC were higher, ranging between 3.2% and 49% in cirrhotics vs 0% and 40% in CHC patients. Most studies tried to identify predictors of HCC development, either de-novo or recurrent, and some authors were also able to build predictive scores for HCC risk stratification, which however still need prospective validation. Whereas some clinical features, such as age, gender, presence of comorbidities and fibrosis stage, may influence both de-novo and recurrent HCC, previous tumour burden before DAA seems to prevail over these features in recurrent HCC risk prediction.