A novel score predicts mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt: MOTS - Modified TIPS Score

Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor levels predict survival in patients with portal hypertension undergoing TIPS

Background & Aims

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is the most effective therapy for complications of portal hypertension. However, clinical outcomes following TIPS placement vary widely between patients and identifying ideal candidates remains a challenge. Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is a circulating marker of immune activation that has previously been associated with liver inflammation, but its prognostic value in patients receiving TIPS is unknown. In the present study, we evaluated the potential clinical relevance of suPAR levels in patients undergoing TIPS insertion.

Methods

suPAR concentrations were measured by ELISA in hepatic vein (HV) and portal vein (PV) blood samples from 99 patients (training cohort) as well as peripheral venous blood samples from an additional 150 patients (validation cohort) undergoing TIPS placement. The association between suPAR levels and patient outcomes was assessed using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox-regression analyses.

Results

suPAR concentrations were significantly higher in HV samples compared to PV samples and correlated with PV concentration, the presence of ascites, renal injury, and consequently with the Child-Pugh and MELD scores. Patients with lower suPAR levels had significantly better short- and long-term survival after TIPS insertion, which remained robust after adjustment for confounders in multivariate Cox-regression analyses. Sensitivity analysis showed an improvement in risk prediction in patients stratified by Child-Pugh or MELD scores. In an independent validation cohort, higher levels of suPAR predicted poor transplant-free survival after TIPS, particularly in patients with Child-Pugh A/B cirrhosis.

Conclusion

suPAR is largely derived from the injured liver and its levels are predictive of outcome in patients undergoing TIPS. suPAR, as a surrogate of hepatic inflammation, may be used to stratify care in patients following TIPS insertion.

Impact and implications

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is the most effective therapy for complications of portal hypertension. However, clinical outcomes following TIPS placement vary widely between patients and identification of the ideal candidates remains challenging. We show that soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR), a circulating marker of immune activation that can easily be measured in routine clinical practice, is a novel marker to identify patients who will benefit from TIPS and those who will not.

A nomogram for predicting prognosis in patients with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt creation based on deep learning-derived spleen volume-to-platelet ratio

OBJECTIVES

The objective of our study was to develop a nomogram to predict post-transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) survival in patients with cirrhosis based on CT images.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included patients who had received TIPS operation at the Wenzhou Medical University First Affiliated Hospital between November 2013 and April 2017. To predict prognosis, a nomogram and Web-based probability were developed to assess the overall survival (OS) rates at 1, 3, and 5 years based on multivariate analyses. With deep learning algorithm, the automated measurement of liver and spleen volumes can be realized. We assessed the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram using the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Age, total bilirubin, and spleen volume-to-platelet ratio (SVPR) were identified as the independent risk factors for OS. The nomogram was constructed based on the above risk factors. The C-index (0.80, 0.74, 0.70), ROC curve (area under curve: 0.828, 0.761, 0.729), calibration curve, and DCA showed that nomogram good at predictive value, stability, and clinical benefit in the prediction of 1-, 3-, 5-year OS in patients with TIPS creation.

CONCLUSIONS

We constructed a nomogram for predicting prognosis in patients with TIPS creation based on risk factors. The nomogram can help clinicians in identifying patients with poor prognosis, eventually facilitating earlier treatment and selecting suitable patients before TIPS.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

This study developed the first nomogram based on SVPR to predict the prognosis of patients treated with TIPS. The nomogram could help clinician in non-invasive decision-making.

A modified model for predicting mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt: A multicentre study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt has controversial survival benefits; thus, patient screening should be performed preoperatively. In this study, we aimed to develop a model to predict post-transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt mortality to aid clinical decision making.

METHODS

A total of 811 patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt from five hospitals were divided into the training and external validation data sets. A modified prediction model of post-transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt mortality (ModelMT ) was built after performing logistic regression. To verify the improved performance of ModelMT , we compared it with seven previous models, both in discrimination and calibration. Furthermore, patients were stratified into low-, medium-, high- and extremely high-risk subgroups.

RESULTS

ModelMT demonstrated a satisfying predictive efficiency in both discrimination and calibration, with an area under the curve of .875 in the training set and .852 in the validation set. Compared to previous models (ALBI, BILI-PLT, MELD-Na, MOTS, FIPS, MELD, CLIF-C AD), ModelMT showed superior performance in discrimination by statistical difference in the Delong test, net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement (all p < .050). Similar results were observed in calibration. Low-, medium-, high- and extremely high-risk groups were defined by scores of ≤160, 160-180, 180-200 and >200, respectively. To facilitate future clinical application, we also built an applet for ModelMT .

CONCLUSIONS

We successfully developed a predictive model with improved performance to assist in decision making for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt according to survival benefits.

Prognostic models in end stage liver disease

Cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide, and is associated with significant health care costs. Even if milestones have been recently reached in understanding and managing end-stage liver disease (ESLD), the disease course remains somewhat difficult to prognosticate. These difficulties have already been acknowledged already in the past, when scores instead of single parameters have been proposed as valuable tools for short-term prognosis. These standard scores, like Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, relying on biochemical and clinical parameters, are still widely used in clinical practice to predict short- and medium-term prognosis. The MELD score, which remains an accurate, easy-to-use, objective predictive score, has received significant modifications over time, in order to improve its performance especially in the liver transplant (LT) setting, where it is widely used as prioritization tool. Although many attempts to improve prognostic accuracy have failed because of lack of replicability or poor benefit with the comparator (often the MELD score or its variants), few scores have been recently proposed and validated especially for subgroups of patients with ESLD, as those with acute-on-chronic liver failure. Artificial intelligence will probably help hepatologists in the near future to fill the current gaps in predicting disease course and long-term prognosis of such patients.

Predictive Accuracy Comparison of Prognostic Scoring Systems for Survival in Patients Undergoing TIPS Placement: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the performance of different risk assessment models (RAMs) for survival after Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt (TIPS) in patients with cirrhotic portal hypertension.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic search of PubMed, WOS, Embase, Cochrane, and CNKI from inception to February 2023 was conducted. We comprehensively reviewed and aggregated data from numerous studies covering prevalent RAMs such as Child-Turcotte-Pugh, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Sodium (MELD-Na), the Freiburg Index of Post-TIPS Survival (FIPS), Bilirubin-platelet, Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute Decompensation score, and Albumin-Bilirubin grade across different timeframes. For this study, short-term is defined as outcomes within a year while long-term refers to outcomes beyond one year. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve or Concordance Statistics was chosen as the metric to assess predictive capacity for mortality outcomes across six predetermined time intervals. Mean effect sizes at various time points were determined using robust variance estimation.

RESULTS

MELD consistently stood out as a primary short-term survival predictor, particularly for 1 month (± 2 weeks) (AUC: 0.72) and 3 months of (± 1 month) survival (AUC: 0.72). MELD-Na showed the best long-term predictive ability, with an AUC of 0.70 at 3.5 years (± 1.5 years). FIPS performed well for 6 months of (± 2 months) survival (AUC: 0.68) and overall transplant-free survival (AUC: 0.75). Efficacy nuances were observed in RAMs when applied to particular subgroups. Meta-regression emphasized the potential predictor overlaps in models like MELD and FIPS.

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis underscores the MELD score as the premier predictor for short-term survival following TIPS. Meanwhile, the FIPS score and MELD-Na model exhibit potential in forecasting long-term outcomes. The study accentuates the significance of RAM selection for enhancing patient outcomes and advocates for additional research to corroborate these findings and fine-tune risk assessment in TIPS.

Prognosis value of serum chloride on 1-year mortality in cirrhotic patients receiving transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Emerging researches have regarded serum chloride as a capable predictor of mortality in liver cirrhosis. We aim to investigate the clinical role of admission chloride in cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric varices receiving transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS), which is unclear.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed data of cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric varices undergoing TIPS in Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University. Mortality outcome was obtained by following up for 1-year after TIPS. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression were used to identify independent predictors of 1-year mortality post-TIPS. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were adopted to assess the predictive ability of the predictors. In addition, log-rank test and Kaplan-Meier (KM) analyses were employed to evaluate the prognostic value of predictors in the survival probability.

RESULTS

A total of 182 patients were included ultimately. Age, fever symptom, platelet-to lymphocyte-ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), total bilirubin, serum sodium, chloride, and Child-Pugh score were related to 1-year follow-up mortality. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, serum chloride (HR = 0.823, 95%CI = 0.757-0.894, p < 0.001) and Child-Pugh score (HR = 1.401, 95%CI = 1.151-1.704, p = 0.001) were identified as independent predictors of 1-year mortality. Patients with serum chloride <107.35 mmol/L showed worse survival probability than those with serum chloride ≥107.35 mmol/L no matter with or without ascites (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Admission hypochloremia and increasing Child-Pugh score are independent predictors of 1-year mortality in cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric varices receiving TIPS.

EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of hepatic encephalopathy

The EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPGs) on the management of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) present evidence-based answers to a set of relevant questions (where possible, formulated in PICO [patient/population, intervention, comparison and outcomes] format) on the definition, diagnosis, differential diagnosis and treatment of HE. The document does not cover the pathophysiology of HE and does not cover all available treatment options. The methods through which it was developed and any information relevant to its interpretation are also provided.