Small area variations in low birth weight and small size of births in India

Multilevel analysis of determinants in postnatal care utilisation among mother-newborn pairs in India, 2019-21

Background

Postnatal care (PNC) utilisation within 24 hours of delivery is a critical component of health care services for mothers and newborns. While substantial geographic variations in various health outcomes have been documented in India, there remains a lack of understanding regarding PNC utilisation and underlying factors accounting for these geographic variations. In this study, we aimed to partition and explain the variation in PNC utilisation across multiple geographic levels in India.

Methods

Using India's 5th National Family Health Survey (2019-21), we conducted four-level logistic regression analyses to partition the total geographic variation in PNC utilisation by state, district, and cluster levels, and to quantify how much of theses variations are explained by a set of 12 demographic, socioeconomic, and pregnancy-related factors. We also conducted analyses stratified by selected states/union territories.

Results

Among 149 622 mother-newborn pairs, 82.29% of mothers and 84.92% of newborns were reported to have received PNC within 24 hours of delivery. In the null model, more than half (56.64%) of the total geographic variation in mother's PNC utilisation was attributed to clusters, followed by 26.06% to states/union territories, and 17.30% to districts. Almost 30% of the between-state variation in mother's PNC utilisation was explained by the demographic, socioeconomic, and pregnancy-related factors (i.e. state level variance reduced from 0.486 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.238, 0.735) to 0.320 (95% CI = 0.152, 0.488)). We observed consistent results for newborn's PNC utilisation. State-specific analyses showed substantial geographic variation attributed to clusters across all selected states/union territories.

Conclusions

Our findings highlight the consistently large cluster variation in PNC utilisation that remains unexplained by compositional effects. Future studies should explore contextual drivers of cluster variation in PNC utilisation to inform and design interventions aimed to improve maternal and child health.

Unraveling birth weight determinants: Integrating machine learning, spatial analysis, and district-level mapping

Despite a decrease in the prevalence of low birth weight (LBW) over time, its ongoing significance as a public health concern in Bangladesh remains evident. Low birth weight is believed to be a contributing factor to infant mortality, prolonged health complications, and vulnerability to non-communicable diseases. This study utilizes nationally representative data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) conducted in 2012-2013 and 2019 to explore factors associated with birth weight. Modeling birth weight data considers interactions among factors, clustering in data, and spatial correlation. District-level maps are generated to identify high-risk areas for LBW. The average birth weight has shown a modest increase, rising from 2.93 kg in 2012-2013 to 2.96 kg in 2019. The study employs a regression tree, a popular machine learning algorithm, to discern essential interactions among potential determinants of birth weight. Findings from various models, including fixed effect, mixed effect, and spatial dependence models, highlight the significance of factors such as maternal age, household head's education, antenatal care, and few data-driven interactions influencing birth weight. District-specific maps reveal lower average birth weights in the southwestern region and selected northern districts, persisting across the two survey periods. Accounting for hierarchical structure and spatial autocorrelation improves model performance, particularly when fitting the most recent round of survey data. The study aims to inform policy formulation and targeted interventions at the district level by utilizing a machine learning technique and regression models to identify vulnerable groups of children requiring heightened attention.

Progress on Sustainable Development Goal indicators in 707 districts of India: a quantitative mid-line assessment using the National Family Health Surveys, 2016 and 2021

Background

India has committed itself to accomplishing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. Meeting these goals would require prioritizing and targeting specific areas within India. We provide a mid-line assessment of the progress across 707 districts of India for 33 SDG indicators related to health and social determinants of health.

Methods

We used data collected on children and adults from two rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) conducted in 2016 and 2021. We identified 33 indicators that cover 9 of the 17 official SDGs. We used the goals and targets outlined by the Global Indicator Framework, Government of India and World Health Organization (WHO) to determine SDG targets to be met by 2030. Using precision-weighted multilevel models, we estimated district mean for 2016 and 2021, and using these values, computed the Annual Absolute Change (AAC) for each indicator. Using the AAC and targets, we classified India and each district as: Achieved-I, Achieved-II, On-Target and Off-Target. Further, when a district was Off-Target on a given indicator, we further identified the calendar year in which the target will be met post-2030.

Findings

India is not On-Target for 19 of the 33 SDGs indicators. The critical Off-Target indicators include Access to Basic Services, Wasting and Overweight Children, Anaemia, Child Marriage, Partner Violence, Tobacco Use, and Modern Contraceptive Use. For these indicators, more than 75% of the districts were Off-Target. Because of a worsening trend observed between 2016 and 2021, and assuming no course correction occurs, many districts will never meet the targets on the SDGs even well after 2030. These Off-Target districts are concentrated in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, and Odisha. Finally, it does not appear that Aspirational Districts, on average, are performing better in meeting the SDG targets than other districts on majority of the indicators.

Interpretation

A mid-line assessment of districts' progress on SDGs suggests an urgent need to increase the pace and momentum on four SDG goals: No Poverty (SDG 1), Zero Hunger (SDG 2), Good Health and Well-Being (SDG 3) and Gender Equality (SDG 5). Developing a strategic roadmap at this time will help India ensure success with regards to meeting the SDGs. India's emergence and sustenance as a leading economic power depends on meeting some of the more basic health and social determinants of health-related SDGs in an immediate and equitable manner.

Funding

This work was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, INV-002992.