Associations between private vaccine and antimicrobial consumption across Indian states, 2009-2017

Modeling of malaria vaccine effectiveness on disease burden and drug resistance in 42 African countries

BACKGROUND

The emergence of antimalarial drug resistance poses a major threat to effective malaria treatment and control. This study aims to inform policymakers and vaccine developers on the potential of an effective malaria vaccine in reducing drug-resistant infections.

METHODS

A compartmental model estimating cases, drug-resistant cases, and deaths averted from 2021 to 2030 with a vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum infection administered yearly to 1-year-olds in 42 African countries. Three vaccine efficacy (VE) scenarios and one scenario of rapidly increasing drug resistance are modeled.

RESULTS

When VE is constant at 40% for 4 years and then drops to 0%, 235.7 (Uncertainty Interval [UI] 187.8-305.9) cases per 1000 children, 0.6 (UI 0.4-1.0) resistant cases per 1000, and 0.6 (UI 0.5-0.9) deaths per 1000 are averted. When VE begins at 80% and drops 20 percentage points each year, 313.9 (UI 249.8-406.6) cases per 1000, 0.9 (UI 0.6-1.3) resistant cases per 1000, and 0.9 (UI 0.6-1.2) deaths per 1000 are averted. When VE remains 40% for 10 years, 384.7 (UI 311.7-496.5) cases per 1000, 1.0 (0.7-1.6) resistant cases per 1000, and 1.1 (UI 0.8-1.5) deaths per 1000 are averted. Assuming an effective vaccine and an increase in current levels of drug resistance to 80% by 2030, 10.4 (UI 7.3-15.8) resistant cases per 1000 children are averted.

CONCLUSIONS

Widespread deployment of a malaria vaccine could substantially reduce health burden in Africa. Maintaining VE longer may be more impactful than a higher initial VE that falls rapidly.

Empowering Low- and Middle-Income Countries to Combat AMR by Minimal Use of Antibiotics: A Way Forward

Antibiotic overuse poses a critical global health concern, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where access to quality healthcare and effective regulatory frameworks often fall short. This issue necessitates a thorough examination of the factors contributing to antibiotic overuse in LMICs, including weak healthcare infrastructure, limited access to quality services, and deficiencies in diagnostic capabilities. To address these challenges, regulatory frameworks should be implemented to restrict non-prescription sales, and accessible point-of-care diagnostic tools must be emphasized. Furthermore, the establishment of effective stewardship programs, the expanded use of vaccines, and the promotion of health systems, hygiene, and sanitation are all crucial components in combating antibiotic overuse. A comprehensive approach that involves collaboration among healthcare professionals, policymakers, researchers, and educators is essential for success. Improving healthcare infrastructure, enhancing access to quality services, and strengthening diagnostic capabilities are paramount. Equally important are education and awareness initiatives to promote responsible antibiotic use, the implementation of regulatory measures, the wider utilization of vaccines, and international cooperation to tackle the challenges of antibiotic overuse in LMICs.

How can we tackle the overuse of antibiotics in low- and middle-income countries?

INTRODUCTION

Antibiotic overuse is a pressing global health concern, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where there is limited access to quality healthcare and insufficient regulation of antibiotic dispensation. This perspective piece highlights the challenges of antibiotic overuse in LMICs and provides insights into potential solutions to address this issue.

AREAS COVERED

This perspective explores key factors contributing to antibiotic overuse in LMICs, encompassing weak healthcare infrastructure, limited access to quality services, and deficiencies in diagnostic capabilities. It discusses regulatory frameworks to curb non-prescription sales, the role of accessible point-of-care diagnostic tools, challenges in implementing effective stewardship programs, the expanded use of vaccines, and the importance of health systems, hygiene, and sanitation.

EXPERT OPINION

In this article, we emphasize the need for a comprehensive approach involving collaboration among healthcare professionals, policymakers, researchers, and educators. We underscore the importance of improving healthcare infrastructure, enhancing access to quality services, and strengthening diagnostic capabilities. The article also highlights the significance of education and awareness in promoting responsible antibiotic use, the role of regulatory measures, the expanded utilization of vaccines, and the need for international collaboration to address the challenges of antibiotic overuse in LMICs.

The value of vaccines

Optimizing vaccine spending depends on recognizing the full value of vaccination (VoV). Existing taxonomies of such value are not comprehensive because they are not guided by general theories. I rely on two such theories: subjective-value theory claims that what has value is determined by what people actually or ideally want in life. A welfarist theory of government states that a fundamental objective of government is to promote social value (or social welfare). These jointly imply that any aspect of life that individuals actually or ideally value and that could be negatively affected by vaccine-preventable diseases (and therefore positively affected by preventive vaccines) is an element of VoV. I build a more comprehensive-value taxonomy than currently exists based on this implication.

Quantifying the Relationship between Antibiotic Use in Food-Producing Animals and Antibiotic Resistance in Humans

It is commonly asserted that agricultural production systems must use fewer antibiotics in food-producing animals in order to mitigate the global spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). In order to assess the cost-effectiveness of such interventions, especially given the potential trade-off with rural livelihoods, we must quantify more precisely the relationship between food-producing animal antimicrobial use and AMR in humans. Here, we outline and compare methods that can be used to estimate this relationship, calling on key literature in this area. Mechanistic mathematical models have the advantage of being rooted in epidemiological theory, but may struggle to capture relevant non-epidemiological covariates which have an uncertain relationship with human AMR. We advocate greater use of panel regression models which can incorporate these factors in a flexible way, capturing both shape and scale variation. We provide recommendations for future panel regression studies to follow in order to inform cost-effectiveness analyses of AMR containment interventions across the One Health spectrum, which will be key in the age of increasing AMR.