Role of BMI, airflow obstruction, St George's Respiratory Questionnaire and age index in prognostication of Asian COPD

Low body mass is associated with reduced left ventricular mass in Chinese elderly with severe COPD

There is limited information on the association of body mass index (BMI) with left ventricular (LV) remodeling corresponding to severity of reduced lung function in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Therefore, we investigated whether BMI is associated with cardiac atrial and ventricular dimensions according to severity of lung functional impairment in Chinese COPD elderly. A total of 563 hospitalized COPD patients with lung function impairment and 184 patients with non-COPD (aged 65–92 years) were collected retrospectively in a cross-sectional study in a university affiliated tertiary hospital in China. BMI and cardiac echocardiographic parameters were compared according to severity of lung functional impairment in COPD patients. BMI was 22.9 ± 3.9 kg/m² in COPD patients, 24.0 ± 4.1 kg/m² in non-COPD patients respectively. Reduced BMI, LV mass index, LV wall thickness and left atrial diameter, and dilated right ventricle (RV) existed in COPD patients with severe lung dysfunction as compared the COPD patients with mild to moderate lung functional reduction and non-COPD patients (P < 0.05), while there were no differences in BMI and echocardiographic parameters between the COPD patients with mild to moderate lung functional decline and non-COPD patients (P > 0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that low BMI (BMI < 18.5 kg/m²) was correlated with reduced LV mass and wall thickness, dilated RV and reduced lung function in the COPD patients with severe lung dysfunction. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that lower BMI is associated not only with dilated RV and impaired pulmonary function, but also it is related to reduced LV mass in Asian COPD elderly with severe lung dysfunction.

Prognostic marker for severe acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: analysis of diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) and forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1)

Background

It is important to assess the prognosis of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD). Recently, it was suggested that diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (D_LCO) should be added to multidimensional tools for assessing COPD. This study aimed to compare the D_LCO and forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV₁) to identify better prognostic factors for admitted patients with AECOPD.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 342 patients with AECOPD receiving inpatient treatment. We classified 342 severe AECOPD patients by severity of D_LCO and FEV₁ (≤ vs. > 50% predicted). We tested the association of FEV₁ and D_LCO with the following outcomes: in-hospital mortality, need for mechanical ventilation, need for intensive care unit (ICU) care. We analyzed the prognostic factors by multivariate analysis using logistic regression. In addition, we conducted a correlation analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Results

In multivariate analyses, D_LCO was associated with mortality (odds ratio = 4.408; 95% CI 1.070–18.167; P = 0.040) and need for mechanical ventilation (odds ratio = 2.855; 95% CI 1.216–6.704; P = 0.016) and ICU care (odds ratios = 2.685; 95% CI 1.290–5.590; P = 0.008). However, there was no statistically significant difference in mortality rate when using FEV₁ classification (P = 0.075). In multivariate linear regression analyses, D_LCO (B = − 0.542 ± 0.121, P < 0.001) and FEV₁ (B = − 0.106 ± 0.106, P = 0.006) were negatively associated with length of hospital stay. In addition, D_LCO showed better predictive ability than FEV₁ in ROC curve analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) of D_LCO was greater than 0.68 for all prognostic factors, and in contrast, the AUC of FEV₁ was less than 0.68.

Conclusion

D_LCO was likely to be as good as or better prognostic marker than FEV₁ in severe AECOPD.

Prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: systematic review and critical appraisal

OBJECTIVE

To map and assess prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed until November 2018 and hand searched references from eligible articles.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION

Studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model in COPD patients and focusing on any potential clinical outcome.

RESULTS

The systematic search yielded 228 eligible articles, describing the development of 408 prognostic models, the external validation of 38 models, and the validation of 20 prognostic models derived for diseases other than COPD. The 408 prognostic models were developed in three clinical settings: outpatients (n=239; 59%), patients admitted to hospital (n=155; 38%), and patients attending the emergency department (n=14; 3%). Among the 408 prognostic models, the most prevalent endpoints were mortality (n=209; 51%), risk for acute exacerbation of COPD (n=42; 10%), and risk for readmission after the index hospital admission (n=36; 9%). Overall, the most commonly used predictors were age (n=166; 41%), forced expiratory volume in one second (n=85; 21%), sex (n=74; 18%), body mass index (n=66; 16%), and smoking (n=65; 16%). Of the 408 prognostic models, 100 (25%) were internally validated and 91 (23%) examined the calibration of the developed model. For 286 (70%) models a model presentation was not available, and only 56 (14%) models were presented through the full equation. Model discrimination using the C statistic was available for 311 (76%) models. 38 models were externally validated, but in only 12 of these was the validation performed by a fully independent team. Only seven prognostic models with an overall low risk of bias according to PROBAST were identified. These models were ADO, B-AE-D, B-AE-D-C, extended ADO, updated ADO, updated BODE, and a model developed by Bertens et al. A meta-analysis of C statistics was performed for 12 prognostic models, and the summary estimates ranged from 0.611 to 0.769.

CONCLUSIONS

This study constitutes a detailed mapping and assessment of the prognostic models for outcome prediction in COPD patients. The findings indicate several methodological pitfalls in their development and a low rate of external validation. Future research should focus on the improvement of existing models through update and external validation, as well as the assessment of the safety, clinical effectiveness, and cost effectiveness of the application of these prognostic models in clinical practice through impact studies.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42017069247.

Risk factors predict frequent hospitalization in patients with acute exacerbation of COPD

Purpose

COPD is a heterogeneous disease, and the available prognostic indexes are therefore limited. This study aimed to identify the factors associated with acute exacerbation leading to hospitalization.

Patients and methods

This was a retrospective study of consecutive patients with COPD (meeting the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] diagnostic criteria) hospitalized at the Ninth Hospital of Xi’an Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University between October 2014 and September 2016. During follow-up after first hospitalization, the patients who had been rehospitalized within 1 year for acute exacerbation were grouped into the frequent exacerbation (FE) group, while the others were grouped into the infrequent exacerbation (IE) group. The baseline demographic, clinical, laboratory, pulmonary function, and imaging data were compared between the two groups.

Results

Compared with the IE group, the FE group had lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV₁)/forced vital capacity (FVC) (P=0.005), FEV_1%pred (P=0.002), maximal mid-expiratory flow (MMEF_25–75%pred) (P=0.003), and ratio of carbon monoxide diffusion capacity to alveolar ventilation (DLCO/VA) (P=0.03) and higher resonant frequency (F_res; P=0.04). According to generations of bronchi, the percentage of the wall area (%WA) of lobes was found to be higher in the FE group. Emphysema index (EI), mean emphysema density (MED)_whole and MED_{left lung} in the FE group were significantly worse than in the IE group (P<0.05). Using logistic regression, exacerbation hospitalizations in the past year (odds ratio [OR] 14.4, 95% CI 6.1–34.0, P<0.001) and EI >10% (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.2–7.1, P=0.02) were independently associated with frequent acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) hospitalization.

Conclusion

Exacerbation hospitalizations in the past year and imaging features of emphysema (EI) were independently associated with FE hospitalization.