Improving flood risk communication by focusing on prevention-focused motivation

A risk-risk trade-off assessment of climate-induced mortality risk changes

The impact of climate change on human health was identified as a priority for the UN COP26 conference. In this article, we consider climate-induced changes to mortality risks and how to incorporate these formally in the policy appraisal process. In the United Kingdom (UK), the Value of Statistical Life (VSL) is used to monetarize the benefits of policies to reduce mortality risks but it remains an open, empirical question as to whether the current VSL (£2.14 million per fatality prevented, December 2021 values) for traffic accidents should be applied in other contexts without any modification and particularly for extreme weather event fatalities. Using a representative sample of the UK population, we aim to estimate and better understand the trade-offs people make when comparing mortality risks, drawing on psychological insights from construal level and regulatory focus theories. We design a stated preference survey using a relative valuation framework with nonmonetary, risk-risk trade-off questions between extreme weather event and traffic accident mortality risks. We find evidence of an extreme weather event risk premium of 1.2-1.6 (implying a climate-related VSL of £2.52-£3.41 million). We also find that participants who are psychologically close to climate change (based on construal level theory), weigh reducing extreme weather event mortality risks almost two times that of reducing traffic accident mortality risks.

The Effectiveness of a Large-Scale Flood Risk Awareness Campaign: Evidence from Two Panel Data Sets

In the context of integrated flood risk management, governments and public agencies aim to strengthen flood risk reduction and insurance at the household level. They often employ awareness campaigns in order to educate the public about flood risk and possible coping strategies. However, the effectiveness of these awareness campaigns has hardly been examined empirically, and the available analyses come to ambiguous conclusions. Evaluations based on longitudinal data of actual household behavior are missing. In this study, we perform two independent empirical analyses to assess whether a large-scale awareness campaign in Germany affected private flood protection or insurance behavior. We thereby exploit the fact that different federal states initiated the campaign at different points in time between 2009 and 2017. In the first analysis, we use a longitudinal data set of a national sample of 6,729 household heads in the years 2012 and 2014 and focus on three federal states that launched the campaign in 2013. In the second analysis, we use flood damage and insurance penetration data at the federal state level from 2002 to 2018 (N = 256). Based on a fixed effects difference-in-differences estimator, we do not find that the campaign had a significant effect on households' behaviors, damage, or insurance penetration. The results show that large-scale flood risk awareness campaigns, as they are currently conducted in many countries, have a limited effectiveness in terms of strengthening actual flood protection or insurance behavior of households.

Risk Communication for Empowerment: Interventions in a Rohingya Refugee Settlement

There are many reasons that people, when warned of an impending extreme event, do not take proactive, self-defensive action. We focus on one possible reason, which is that, sometimes, people lack a sense of agency or even experience disempowerment, which can lead to passivity. This article takes up one situation where the possibility of disempowerment is salient, that of Rohingya refugees who were evicted from their homes in Myanmar and forced to cross the border into neighboring Bangladesh. In their plight, we see the twin elements of marginalization and displacement acting jointly to produce heightened vulnerability to the risks from extreme weather. Building on a relational model of risk communication, a consortium of researchers and practitioners designed a risk communication training workshop that featured elements of empowerment-based practice. The program was implemented in two refugee camps. Evaluation suggests that the workshop may have had an appreciable effect in increasing participants' sense of agency and hope, while decreasing their level of fatalism. The outcomes were considerably more positive for female than male participants, which has important implications. This work underscores the potential for participatory modes of risk communication to empower the more marginalized, and thus more vulnerable, members of society.

Risk communication and adaptive behaviour in flood-prone areas of Austria: A Q-methodology study on opinions of affected homeowners

Adaptive behaviour has become a crucial aspect in current flood risk management strategies across the globe, especially in response to potential consequences of flood hazards and facing challenges of climate change. There are several factors which influence the motivation to implement flood risk management strategies such as property-level flood risk adaptation (PLFRA) measures. This paper assesses and evaluates the role of risk communication, which is a vital and overarching driver or barrier in the successful implementation of PLFRA measures. We explored this issue through a bootstrapped Q-methodology with 20 residents in the urban area of Graz, Austria, who have been affected by flood events in the past. Additionally, semi-structured interviews concerning risk communication were conducted with the participants to understand the preferred risk communication modes. The results show that respondents have a high level of perceived self-efficacy (most have implemented PLFRA measures), that there is general distrust in public protection measures and that there is a high understanding of residual risk. Considering the communication modes preferred by a majority of respondents, face-to-face interaction with unbiased experts is more attractive than online applications. Additionally, citizens want to be engaged in decision-making processes concerning public protection measures in their area. This calls for participatory processes in flood risk management which involve mutual knowledge transfer and social learning.

Characters matter: How narratives shape affective responses to risk communication

Introduction

Whereas scientists depend on the language of probability to relay information about hazards, risk communication may be more effective when embedding scientific information in narratives. The persuasive power of narratives is theorized to reside, in part, in narrative transportation.

Purpose

This study seeks to advance the science of stories in risk communication by measuring real-time affective responses as a proxy indicator for narrative transportation during science messages that present scientific information in the context of narrative.

Methods

This study employed a within-subjects design in which participants (n = 90) were exposed to eight science messages regarding flood risk. Conventional science messages using probability and certainty language represented two conditions. The remaining six conditions were narrative science messages that embedded the two conventional science messages within three story forms that manipulated the narrative mechanism of character selection. Informed by the Narrative Policy Framework, the characters portrayed in the narrative science messages were hero, victim, and victim-to-hero. Natural language processing techniques were applied to identify and rank hero and victim vocabularies from 45 resident interviews conducted in the study area; the resulting classified vocabulary was used to build each of the three story types. Affective response data were collected over 12 group sessions across three flood-prone communities in Montana. Dial response technology was used to capture continuous, second-by-second recording of participants’ affective responses while listening to each of the eight science messages. Message order was randomized across sessions. ANOVA and three linear mixed-effects models were estimated to test our predictions.

Results

First, both probabilistic and certainty science language evoked negative affective responses with no statistical differences between them. Second, narrative science messages were associated with greater variance in affective responses than conventional science messages. Third, when characters are in action, variation in the narrative mechanism of character selection leads to significantly different affective responses. Hero and victim-to-hero characters elicit positive affective responses, while victim characters produce a slightly negative response.

Conclusions

In risk communication, characters matter in audience experience of narrative transportation as measured by affective responses.

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks.

Adolescents' and Young Adults' Online Risk Taking: The Role of Gist and Verbatim Representations

Young people are exposed to and engage in online risky activities, such as disclosing personal information and making unknown friends online. Little research has examined the psychological mechanisms underlying young people's online risk taking. Drawing on fuzzy trace theory, we examined developmental differences in adolescents' and young adults' online risk taking and assessed whether differential reliance on gist representations (based on vague, intuitive knowledge) or verbatim representations (based on specific, factual knowledge) could explain online risk taking. One hundred and twenty two adolescents (ages 13-17) and 172 young adults (ages 18-24) were asked about their past online risk-taking behavior, intentions to engage in future risky online behavior, and gist and verbatim representations. Adolescents had significantly higher intentions to take online risks than young adults. Past risky online behaviors were positively associated with future intentions to take online risks for adolescents and negatively for young adults. Gist representations about risk negatively correlated with intentions to take risks online in both age groups, while verbatim representations positively correlated with online risk intentions, particularly among adolescents. Our results provide novel insights about the underlying mechanisms involved in adolescent and young adults' online risk taking, suggesting the need to tailor the representation of online risk information to different age groups.

More Than Fear Induction: Toward an Understanding of People's Motivation to Be Well-Prepared for Emergencies in Flood-Prone Areas

This article examines the extent and manner to which evaluations of flood-related precautions are affected by an individual's motivation and perception of context. It argues that the relationship between risk perception and flood risk preparedness can be fruitfully specified in terms of vulnerability and efficacy if these concepts are put into the perspective of prevention-focused motivation. This relationship was empirically examined in a risk communication experiment in a delta area of the Netherlands (n = 1,887). Prevention-focused motivation was induced by contextualized risk information. The results showed that prevention-focused individuals were more sensitive to the relevance of potential precautions for satisfying their needs in the context they found themselves in. The needs included, but were not limited to, fear reduction. Due to the heterogeneity of the residents, the evaluations reflected individual differences in the intensity and the selectivity of precautionary processes. Four types of persons could be distinguished according to their evaluation of precautionary measures: a high-scoring minority, two more selective types, and a low-scoring minority. For policymakers and risk communicators it is vital to consider the nature of prevention motivation and the context in which it is likely to be high.