Source-receptor probability of atmospheric long-distance dispersal of viruses to Israel from the eastern Mediterranean area

Genomic Analysis Illustrated a Single Introduction and Evolution of Israeli Bluetongue Serotype 8 Virus Population 2008-2019

Outbreaks of the European Bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype 8 (BTV-8), which are characterized by activity cycles separated by years of inactivity, may be influenced by genetic changes of the virus or by herd immunity. BTV activity in Israel is characterized by similar dynamics, but differs from European countries in its vector population, environmental conditions, and lack of cattle vaccination against this serotype. Comparison of these two geographical systems and characterization of their epidemiological connection is therefore of high interest in-order to better understand the factors influencing BTV-8 evolution. BTV-8, closely related to the European strain, was introduced to Israel in 2008. It was at the center of BT outbreaks in 2010 and 2015–2016 and thereafter was lastly isolated in Israel in 2019. We performed genetic analyses of twelve BTV-8 Israeli strains isolated between 2008 and 2019 and compared them with published sequences of BTV-8 isolated in other countries. The analysis revealed a single introduction of BTV-8 into Israel and thereafter extensive occurrence of genomic drifts and multiple reassortments with local BTV strains. Comparison of the Israeli and Cypriot BTV-8 from 2015 to 2016 suggests transmission of the virus between the two countries and a separate and parallel development from European or other Israeli BTV-8 strains. The parallel development of other BTV-8 strains was demonstrated by the identification of the Israeli BTV-8 ISR-1194/1/19 strain, which exhibited common origin with reassorted Israeli BTV-8 strains from 2010 and additional reassortment of seven segments. In order to reveal the source of BTV-8 introduction into Israel we performed BEAST analysis which showed that a probable common ancestor for both European and Israeli BTV-8 presumably existed in 2003–2004. In 2019, a possible new introduction occurred in Israel, where a novel BTV-8 strain was detected, sharing ~95% identity by segments 2 and 6 with Nigerian BTV-8NIG1982/07 and European–Middle Eastern strains. The results of the study indicate that Israel and neighboring countries consist a separate environmental and evolutionary system, distinct from European ones.

A single holiday was the turning point of the COVID-19 policy of Israel

Objectives

Despite an initial success, Israel’s quarantine-isolation COVID-19 policy has abruptly collapsed. This study’s aim is to identify the causes that led to this exponential rise in the accumulation of confirmed cases.

Methods

Epidemiological investigation reports were used to reconstruct chains of transmission as well as assess the net contribution of local infections relative to imported cases, infected travelers arriving from abroad. A mathematical model was implemented in order to describe the efficiency of the quarantine-isolation policy and the inflow of imported cases. The model’s simulations included two scenarios for the actual time series of the symptomatic cases, providing insights into the conditions that lead to the abrupt change.

Results

The abrupt change followed a Jewish holiday, Purim, in which many public gatherings were held. According to the first scenario, the accumulation of confirmed cases before Purim was driven by imported cases resulting in a controlled regime, with an effective reproduction number, Re, of 0.69. In the second scenario, which followed Purim, a continuous rise of the local to imported cases ratio began, which led to an exponential growth regime characterized by an Re of 4.34.

It was found that the change of regime cannot be attributed to super-spreader events, as these consisted of approximately 5% of the primary cases, which resulted in 17% of the secondary cases.

Conclusions

A general lesson for health policymakers should be that even a short lapse in public responsiveness can lead to dire consequences.

Spatial analysis of lumpy skin disease in Eurasia-Predicting areas at risk for further spread within the region

Data from affected lumpy skin disease (LSD) locations between July 2012 and September 2018 in the Balkans, Caucasus, and Middle East were retrieved from FAO's Global Animal Disease Information System (EMPRES-i) from the European Commission's Animal Disease Notification System (ADNS) and completed with data from the official veterinary services of some countries. During this period, a total of 7,593 locations from 22 countries were affected. Within this period, over 46,000 cattle were clinically affected by LSD, 3,700 animals died and 17,500 were slaughtered due to culling policies to stop the spread of the disease. Most outbreaks occurred in 2016, between the months of May and November. The affected region was divided into a grid of 10 × 10 km cells and we fit a spatial regression model to analyse the association between the reported LSD outbreaks and climatic variables, land cover, and cattle density. The results showed big differences in the odds of being LSD positive due to the type of land cover: the odds of a cell being LSD positive was increased in areas mostly covered with croplands, grassland, or shrubland. The odds was also increased for higher cattle density, as well as areas with higher annual mean temperature and higher temperature diurnal range. The resulting model was utilized to predict the LSD risk in neighbouring unaffected areas in Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, identifying several areas with high risk of spread. Results from this study provide useful information for the design of surveillance and awareness systems, and preventive measures, e.g., vaccination programmes.