Interspecific network centrality, host range and early-life development are associated with wildlife hosts of Rift Valley fever virus

Predicting Suitable Areas for African Swine Fever Outbreaks in Wild Boars in South Korea and Their Implications for Managing High-Risk Pig Farms

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease affecting domestic pigs and wild boars, with no effective vaccine or treatment available. In South Korea, extensive measures have been implemented to prevent ASF transmission between wild boars and ASF spillover from wild boars to pig farm sectors, including the search for ASF-infected carcasses in mountainous forests and the installation of fences across wide areas of these forests. To determine the priority search range for infected carcasses and establish pig farm-centered quarantine measures, it is necessary to predict the specific path of ASF outbreaks in wild boars and identify pig farms at high risk of ASF spillover from wild boars. Here, we aimed to predict suitable areas and geographical paths for ASF outbreaks in wild boars using the MaxEnt model and shortest-path betweenness centrality analysis. The analysis identified a high frequency of ASF outbreaks in areas with a suitability value ≥0.4 on the suitability map and in areas within a 1.8 km range from the path on the shortest-path map, indicating these areas were high-risk zones for ASF outbreaks. Among the 5063 pig farms analyzed, 37 were in the high-risk zone on the suitability map, 499 were in the high-risk zone on the shortest-path map, and 9 were in both risk zones. Of the 51 pig farm sectors with a dense distribution of pig farms (kernel density ≥ 8), 25 sectors were in contact with or partially overlapped the high risk zone on the suitability map, 18 sectors were located within the high risk zone on the shortest-path map, and 14 sectors were located within both risk zones. These findings aided in determining the priority range for searches for wild boar carcasses and enabled the establishment of preemptive ASF prevention measures around the pig farming sectors that are at risk of ASF spillover from wild boars.

Mechanistic models of Rift Valley fever virus transmission: A systematic review

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arbovirosis which has been reported across Africa including the northernmost edge, South West Indian Ocean islands, and the Arabian Peninsula. The virus is responsible for high abortion rates and mortality in young ruminants, with economic impacts in affected countries. To date, RVF epidemiological mechanisms are not fully understood, due to the multiplicity of implicated vertebrate hosts, vectors, and ecosystems. In this context, mathematical models are useful tools to develop our understanding of complex systems, and mechanistic models are particularly suited to data-scarce settings. Here, we performed a systematic review of mechanistic models studying RVF, to explore their diversity and their contribution to the understanding of this disease epidemiology. Researching Pubmed and Scopus databases (October 2021), we eventually selected 48 papers, presenting overall 49 different models with numerical application to RVF. We categorized models as theoretical, applied, or grey, depending on whether they represented a specific geographical context or not, and whether they relied on an extensive use of data. We discussed their contributions to the understanding of RVF epidemiology, and highlighted that theoretical and applied models are used differently yet meet common objectives. Through the examination of model features, we identified research questions left unexplored across scales, such as the role of animal mobility, as well as the relative contributions of host and vector species to transmission. Importantly, we noted a substantial lack of justification when choosing a functional form for the force of infection. Overall, we showed a great diversity in RVF models, leading to important progress in our comprehension of epidemiological mechanisms. To go further, data gaps must be filled, and modelers need to improve their code accessibility.

Population structure and diet generalism define a preliminary ecological profile of zoonotic virus hosts in the Western Ghats, India

The rainforests of the Western Ghats exhibit some of the highest biodiversity on the planet, and yet are undergoing rapid land use change due to the expansion of agriculture and other industries. As the landscape of the region is transformed, more people are coming into conflict with wildlife and becoming exposed to pathogens that previously circulated beyond the boundaries of human incursion. Despite an ecological knowledge imperative, this emerging landscape is ill-defined with respect to the ecology of zoonotic viruses and their mammalian wildlife hosts. Without a better understanding of the underlying infection ecology, the epidemiology of viral spillover will remain elusive and unsuited to the task of predicting and preventing outbreaks. The current investigation explored the association between mammalian zoonotic virus richness and species-level landscape, life-history, and dietary traits to describe an initial ecological profile of zoonotic virus hosts in the Western Ghats. Social group composition and dietary forage were both non-linearly associated with greater zoonotic viral richness among these species, whereby species active in smaller social groups, albeit in higher population densities, and exhibiting a tendency toward a generalist diet hosted more zoonotic viruses. While these findings provide no definitive ecological demarcation of zoonotic virus hosts or their contribution to viral maintenance or amplification, it is expected that this preliminary profile can help to develop targeted wildlife pathogen surveillance programs and to expand the current approach to epidemiological modelling of emerging zoonoses in the region, which typically do not account for the macroecological parameters of infection transmission.

Livestock Challenge Models of Rift Valley Fever for Agricultural Vaccine Testing

Since the discovery of Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV) in Kenya in 1930, the virus has become widespread throughout most of Africa and is characterized by sporadic outbreaks. A mosquito-borne pathogen, RVFV is poised to move beyond the African continent and the Middle East and emerge in Europe and Asia. There is a risk that RVFV could also appear in the Americas, similar to the West Nile virus. In light of this potential threat, multiple studies have been undertaken to establish international surveillance programs and diagnostic tools, develop models of transmission dynamics and risk factors for infection, and to develop a variety of vaccines as countermeasures. Furthermore, considerable efforts to establish reliable challenge models of Rift Valley fever virus have been made and platforms for testing potential vaccines and therapeutics in target species have been established. This review emphasizes the progress and insights from a North American perspective to establish challenge models in target livestock such as cattle, sheep, and goats in comparisons to other researchers' reports. A brief summary of the potential role of wildlife, such as buffalo and white-tailed deer as reservoir species will also be discussed.

Increased Susceptibility of Cattle to Intranasal RVFV Infection

Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV) is a zoonotic mosquito-borne virus that belongs to the Phenuiviridae family. Infections in animal herds cause abortion storms, high mortality rates in neonates, and mild to severe symptoms. Infected animals can also transmit the virus to people, particularly people who live or work in close contact with livestock. There is currently an ongoing effort to produce safe and efficacious veterinary vaccines against RVFV in livestock to protect against both primary infection in animals and zoonotic infections in people. To test the efficacy of these vaccines it is essential to have a reliable challenge model in relevant target species, including ruminants. In this study we evaluated three routes of inoculation (intranasal, intradermal and a combination of routes) in Holstein cattle using an infectious dose of 10⁷ pfu/ml and a virus strain from the 2006-2007 outbreak in Kenya and Sudan. Our results demonstrated that all routes of inoculation were effective at producing viremia in all animals; however, the intranasal route induced the highest levels and longest duration of viremia, the most noticeable clinical signs, and the most widespread infection of tissues. We therefore recommend using the intranasal inoculation for future vaccine and challenge studies.

A preliminary ecological profile of Kyasanur Forest disease virus hosts among the mammalian wildlife of the Western Ghats, India

Kyasanur Forest disease (KFD) virus is one of India's severe arboviruses capable of causing prolonged debilitating disease. It has been expanding beyond its historical endemic locus at an alarming rate over the last two decades. The natural nidus of this zoonosis is located in the monsoon rainforest of the Western Ghats, India, which is one of the world's most important biodiversity hotspots. Definitive reservoir hosts for KFD virus (KFDV) have yet to be delineated, and thus much of the infection ecology of this virus, and its consequent transmission dynamics, remains uncertain. Given its unique biogeographical context, identifying ecological parameters of KFDV relevant to the virus' epidemiology has been complex and challenging. The challenge has been exacerbated by diminished research efforts in wildlife surveillance over the last two decades, coinciding with the expansion of the range of KFD across the region. The current investigation sought to define a preliminary ecological profile of KFDV hosts based on their life history and feeding traits to aid in re-establishing targeted wildlife surveillance and to discern those ecological traits of wildlife hosts that may improve our understanding of KFD epidemiology. The importance of fast-living among KFDV hosts was of special interest with respect to the latter aim. We compared mammalian traits between host and non-host species using general additive models and phylogenetic generalised linear models. This study found that both body mass and forest forage were strongly associated with mammalian host infection status, but that reproductive life history traits were not. These findings will help in structuring ecologically based wildlife surveillance and field investigations, while also helping to parameterise novel epidemiological models of zoonotic infection risk that incorporate species functional traits in a region where biogeography, landscape ecology, and community ecology manifest extraordinary complexity, particularly under growing anthropogenic pressure.

Mechanisms of inter-epidemic maintenance of Rift Valley fever phlebovirus

Rift Valley fever phlebovirus (RVFV) is an arthropod-borne virus that has caused substantial epidemics throughout Africa and in the Arabian Peninsula. The virus can cause severe disease in livestock and humans and therefore the control and prevention of viral outbreaks is of utmost importance. The epidemiology of RVFV has some particular characteristics. Unexpected and significant epidemics have been observed in spatially and temporally divergent patterns across the African continent. Sudden epidemics in previously unaffected areas are followed by periods of long-term apparent absence of virus and sudden, unpredictable reoccurrence in disparate regions. Therefore, the elucidation of underlying mechanisms of viral maintenance is one of the largest gaps in the knowledge of RVFV ecology. It remains unknown whether the virus needs to be reintroduced before RVF outbreaks can occur, or if unperceived viral circulation in local vertebrates or mosquitoes is sufficient for maintenance of the virus. To gain insight into these knowledge gaps, we here review existing data that describe potential mechanisms of RVFV maintenance, as well as molecular and serological studies in endemic and non-endemic areas that provide evidence of an inter- or pre-epidemic virus presence. Basic and country-specific mechanisms of RVFV introduction into non-endemic countries are summarized and an overview of studies using mathematical modeling of RVFV persistence is given.

Ecological and life history traits are associated with Ross River virus infection among sylvatic mammals in Australia

Background

Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia’s most important arbovirus given its annual burden of disease and the relatively large number of Australians at risk for infection. This mosquito-borne arbovirus is also a zoonosis, making its epidemiology and infection ecology complex and cryptic. Our grasp of enzootic, epizootic, and zoonotic RRV transmission dynamics is imprecise largely due to a poor understanding of the role of wild mammalian hosts in the RRV system.

Methods

The current study applied a piecewise structural equation model (PSEM) toward an interspecific comparison of sylvatic Australian mammals to characterize the ecological and life history profile of species with a history of RRV infection relative to those species with no such history among all wild mammalian species surveyed for RRV infection. The effects of species traits were assessed through multiple causal pathways within the PSEM framework.

Results

Sylvatic mammalian species with a history of RRV infection tended to express dietary specialization and smaller population density. These species were also characterized by a longer gestation length.

Conclusions

This study provides the first interspecific comparison of wild mammals for RRV infection and identifies some potential targets for future wildlife surveys into the infection ecology of this important arbovirus. An applied RRV macroecology may prove invaluable to the epidemiological modeling of RRV epidemics across diverse sylvatic landscapes, as well as to the development of human and animal health surveillance systems.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12898-019-0220-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.