Ecological super-spreaders drive host-range oscillations: Omicron and risk space for emerging infectious disease

Climatic determinants of monkeypox transmission: A multi-national analysis using generalized count mixed models

Monkeypox (mpox) is a rare viral disease that can cause severe illness in humans, with outbreaks occurring primarily in central and western Africa. Well-coordinated and synchronized efforts are necessary to understand the factors involved in disease transmission and develop effective health interventions. The aim of this study is to assess the relationship between climate factors and daily mpox cases, as well as to identify the most suitable predictive model for transmission. We analyzed confirmed mpox cases from May 5, 2022, to February 14, 2023, in the 33 most affected countries. We employed and compared the efficiency of four models: Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial. We found a significant correlation between climate factors and daily mpox cases across most of the studied countries. Specifically, for each 1°C increase in the heat index (HI), daily cases increased by 7.7 % (IRR = 1.077, p < 0.05). Conversely, higher relative humidity (RH) decreased daily cases by 2.4 %, and increased wind speed (WS) reduced them by 7.3 %. The HI positively influences mpox spread, while RH and WS act as protective factors. Public health officials should consider these climate influences when developing targeted interventions.

Patch biogeography under intermittent barriers: macroevolutionary consequences of microevolutionary processes

The processes that generate biodiversity start on a microevolutionary scale, where each individual's history can impact the species' history. This manuscript presents a theoretical study that examines the macroevolutionary patterns that emerge from the microevolutionary dynamics of populations inhabiting two patches. The model is neutral, meaning that neither survival nor reproduction depends on a fixed genotype, yet individuals must have minimal genetic similarity to reproduce. We used historical sea level oscillation over the past 800 thousand years to hypothesize periods when individuals could migrate from one patch to another. In our study, we keep track of each speciation and extinction event, build the complete and extant phylogenies, and characterize the macroevolutionary patterns regarding phylogeny balance, acceleration of speciation, and crown age. We also evaluate ecological patterns: richness, beta diversity, and species distribution symmetry. The balance of the complete phylogeny can be a sign of the speciation mode, contrasting speciation induced by migration and isolation (vicariance). The acceleration of the speciation process is also affected by the geographical barriers and the duration of the isolation period, with high isolation times leading to accelerated speciation. We report the correlation between ecological and macroevolutionary patterns and show it decreases with the time spent in isolation. We discuss, in light of our results, the challenge of integrating present-time community ecology with macroevolutionary patterns.

Genomic Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in México: Three Years since Wuhan, China's First Reported Case

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this work was to analyze the metadata of the SARS-CoV-2 sequences obtained from samples collected in Mexico from 2020 to 2022.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Metadata of SARS-CoV-2 sequences from samples collected in Mexico up to 31 December 2022 was retrieved from GISAID and manually cured for interpretation.

RESULTS

As of December 2022, Mexican health authorities and the scientific community have sequenced up to 81,983 SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes deposited in GISAID, representing 1.1% of confirmed cases. The number of sequences obtained per state corresponded to the gross domestic product (GDP) of each state for the first (Mexico City) and the last (Tlaxcala). Approximately 25% of the sequences were obtained from CoViGen-Mex, an interdisciplinary initiative of health and scientific institutions to collect and sequence samples nationwide. The metadata showed a clear dominance of sequences retrieved by women. A similar variant distribution over time was found in Mexico and overseas, with the Omicron variant predominating. Finally, the age group with the highest representation in the sequences was adults aged 21 to 50 years, accounting for more than 50% of the total.

CONCLUSIONS

Mexico presents diverse sociodemographic and economic characteristics. The COVID-19 pandemic has been and continues to be a challenge for collaboration across the country and around the world.

Effect of Host-Switching on the Ecological and Evolutionary Patterns of Parasites

Speciation via host-switching is a macroevolutionary process that emerges from a microevolutionary dynamic where individual parasites switch hosts, establish a new association, and reduce reproductive contact with the original parasite lineage. Phylogenetic distance and geographic distribution of the hosts have been shown to be determinants of the capacity and opportunity of the parasite to change hosts. Although speciation via host-switching has been reported in many host-parasite systems, its dynamic on the individual, population and community levels is poorly understood. Here we propose a theoretical model to simulate parasite evolution considering host-switching events on the microevolutionary scale, taking into account the macroevolutionary history of the hosts, to evaluate how host-switching can affect ecological and evolutionary patterns of parasites in empirical communities at regional and local scales. In the model, parasite individuals can switch hosts under variable intensity and have their evolution driven by mutation and genetic drift. Mating is sexual and only individuals that are sufficiently similar can produce offspring. We assumed that parasite evolution occurs at the same evolutionary time scale as their hosts, and that the intensity of host-switching decreases as the host species differentiate. Ecological and evolutionary patterns were characterized by the turnover of parasite species among host species, and parasite evolutionary tree imbalance respectively. We found a range of host-switching intensity that reproduces ecological and evolutionary patterns observed in empirical communities. Our results showed that turnover decreased as host-switching intensity increased, with low variation among the model replications. On the other hand, tree imbalance showed wide variation and non-monotonic tendency. We concluded that tree imbalance was sensitive to stochastic events, whereas turnover may be a good indicator of host-switching. We found that local communities corresponded to higher host-switching intensity when compared to regional communities, highlighting that spatial scale is a limitation for host-switching. [Dispersal of parasites, opportunity and capacity of interaction, phylogenetic conservatism, and community structure.].

Domestication and microbiome succession may drive pathogen spillover

Emerging infectious diseases have posed growing medical, social and economic threats to humanity. The biological background of pathogen spillover or host switch, however, still has to be clarified. Disease ecology finds pathogen spillovers frequently but struggles to explain at the molecular level. Contrarily, molecular biological traits of host-pathogen relationships with specific molecular binding mechanisms predict few spillovers. Here we aim to provide a synthetic explanation by arguing that domestication, horizontal gene transfer even between superkingdoms as well as gradual exchange of microbiome (microbiome succession) are essential in the whole scenario. We present a new perspective at the molecular level which can explain the observations of frequent pathogen spillover events at the ecological level. This proposed rationale is described in detail, along with supporting evidence from the peer-reviewed literature and suggestions for testing hypothesis validity. We also highlight the importance of systematic monitoring of virulence genes across taxonomical categories and in the whole biosphere as it helps prevent future epidemics and pandemics. We conclude that that the processes of domestication, horizontal gene transfer and microbial succession might be important mechanisms behind the many spillover events driven and accelerated by climate change, biodiversity loss and globalization.

The ecosyndemic framework of the global environmental change and the COVID-19 pandemic

The ecosyndemic theory combines the concept of 'synergy' with 'epidemic' and the term "eco" implies the role of the environmental changes. Each of the conditions enhances the negative impacts of the other in an additive way making our society more vulnerable and heightening individual risk factors. In this study, we analyze the mutually reinforcing links between the environment and health from the complexity angle of the ecosyndemic theory and propose the characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic as ecosyndemic. We use the term 'ecosyndemic' because the global environmental change contributes to local-scale, regional-scale and global-scale alterations of the Earth's systems. These changes have their root causes in the way that people interact with the physical, chemical, and biotic factors of the environment. These interactions disturb nature and the consequences have feedbacks in every living organism.

Evolutionary Challenges to Humanity Caused by Uncontrolled Carbon Emissions: The Stockholm Paradigm

This review paper discusses the Stockholm Paradigm (SP) as a theoretical framework and practical computational instrument for studying and assessing the risk of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) as a result of climate change. The SP resolves the long-standing parasite paradox and explains how carbon emissions in the atmosphere increase parasites' generalization and intensify host switches from animals to humans. The SP argues that the growing rate of novel EID occurrence caused by mutated zoonotic pathogens is related to the following factors brought together as a unified issue of humanity: (a) carbon emissions and consequent climate change; (b) resettlement/migration of people with hyper-urbanization; (c) overpopulation; and (d) human-induced distortion of the biosphere. The SP demonstrates that, in an evolutionary way, humans now play a role migratory birds once played in spreading parasite pathogens between the three Earth megabiotopes (northern coniferous forest belt; tropical/equatorial rainforest areas; and hot/cold deserts), i.e., the role of "super-spreaders" of parasitic viruses, bacteria, fungi and protozoa. This makes humans extremely vulnerable to the EID threat. The SP sees the +1.0-+1.2 °C limit as the optimal target for the slow, yet feasible curbing of the EID hazard to public health (150-200 years). Reaching merely the +2.0 °C level will obviously be an EID catastrophe, as it may cause two or three pandemics each year. We think it useful and advisable to include the SP-based research in the scientific repository of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, since EID appearance and spread are indirect but extremely dangerous consequences of climate change.