Urban-rural and sex differentials in tuberculosis mortality in Bangladesh: results from a population-based survey

Exploring challenges and recommendations for verbal autopsy implementation in low-/middle-income countries: a cross-sectional study of Iringa Region-Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Verbal autopsy (VA) plays a vital role in providing cause-of-death information in places where such information is not available. Many low-/middle-income countries (LMICs) including Tanzania are still struggling to yield quality and adequate cause-of-death data for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS).

OBJECTIVE

To highlight challenges and recommendations for VA implementation to support LMICs yield quality and adequate mortality statistics for informed decisions on healthcare interventions.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

STUDY SETTING

Iringa region in Tanzania.

PARTICIPANTS

41 people including 33 community health workers, 1 VA national coordinator, 5 national task force members, 1 VA regional coordinator and 1 member of the VA data management team.

RESULTS

The perceived challenges of key informants include a weak death notification system, lengthy VA questionnaire, poor data quality and inconsistent responses, lack of clarity in the inclusion criteria, poor commitment to roles and responsibilities, poor coordination, poor financial mechanism and no or delayed feedback to VA implementers. Based on these findings, we recommend the following strategies for effective adaptation and use of VAs: (1) reinforce or implement legislative procedures towards the legal requirement for death notification. (2) Engage key stakeholders in the overall implementation of VAs. (3) Build capacity for data collection, monitoring, processing and use of VA data. (4) Improve the VA questionnaire and quality control mechanism for optimal use in data collection. (5) Create sustainable financing mechanisms and institutionalisation of VA implementation. (6) Integrating VA Implementation in CRVS.

CONCLUSION

Effective VA implementation demands through planning, stakeholder engagement, upskilling of local experts and fair compensation for interviewers. Such coordinated endeavours will overcome systemic, technical and behavioural challenges hindering VA's successful implementation.

Deaths among tuberculosis patients of the western state of India: A secondary record based analytical study on its determinants

INTRODUCTION

India has a significant TB burden, and ongoing attempts are being made to eradicate the disease. Globally, the number of TB deaths is declining, but not quickly enough to meet the End TB Goals. The National Strategic Plan (NSP) 2017-2025 in India set in motion an ambitious effort to expand the scope and efficacy of the National Tuberculosis Elimination Program (NTEP).

METHODS

A descriptive retrospective study based on secondary data was conducted on information obtained from the electronic TB notification register for 2019, abstracted from Ni-kshay. Further, descriptive analysis was undertaken to identify the factors associated with deaths and successful treatment outcomes. The binomial logistic regression model estimates the crude relative risk and a 95% confidence interval to describe the association between predictor variables and TB treatment outcomes.

RESULTS

After applying the eligibility criteria for the study population, a total of 1,44,643 (88%) TB patients were included in the study. 1,35,934 (94%) TB patients had completed the treatment and survived, while 8709 (6%) TB patients died. A significant association of treatment outcomes was observed in age, gender, key population, site of diseases, type of case, type of health facilities, HIV and Diabetes. When a logistic regression was applied, the model showed the association of the independent variables with the risk of death in TB patients.

CONCLUSION

The epidemiological factors associated with treatment outcomes among TB patients should be audited systematically. A structure of TB death surveillance and response system should be established with a mortality audit, including a community-based death review (CBDR) and a facility-based medical audit (FBMA) in case the patient is hospitalized or discharged from a hospital.

The contribution of private health facilities to the urban tuberculosis program of Afghanistan

SETTING

Although the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) is generally higher in urban areas than in rural areas, coordination between the private and public sectors for TB control is weak.

OBJECTIVE

To share experience from an urban DOTS program in five cities of Afghanistan.

DESIGN

An urban DOTS project was designed in 2009 in Kabul, Afghanistan, and later expanded to Kandahar, Jalalabad, Herat, Mazari-i-Sharif, and Paul-i-Khomri cities.

RESULTS

In total, 57 public health facilities and 49 private facilities provided DOTS services in the five cities from 2015 to 2018. A total of 28,542 (10.6%) adults (aged ≥15) screened were diagnosed with TB (all forms). The private sector contributed 5,618 (19.7%) of those. Positivity rates among presumptive TB cases in public facilities were 18.9%, 12.5%, 14.4%, and 4.8% in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018, respectively. In private facilities, positivity rates were 25.8%, 39.5%, and 27.4% in 2016, 2017, and 2018, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The private sector's contribution to case detection was very high and the TB positivity rate among people screened in the private sector was high, which could be due to more selective screening rather than all health facility visitors done by public health facilities.

Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08-1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45-9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000-279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01-1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000-425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82-1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820-11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300-100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69-5·02), 6·17 (5·48-7·02), and 1·17 (1·07-1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03-2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05-1·08) times greater among females than males.

INTERPRETATION

As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Spatio-temporal variation in tuberculosis incidence and risk factors for the disease in a region of unbalanced socio-economic development

BACKGROUND

Previous research pointed to a close relationship between the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in aging populations and socio-economic conditions, however there has been lack of studies focused on a region of unbalanced socio-economic development. The aim of this paper is to explore the spatio-temporal variation in TB incidence and examine risk determinants of the disease among aging populations in a typical region.

METHODS

Data on TB-registered cases between 2009 and 2014, in addition to social-economic factors, were collected for each district/county in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, a region characterized by an aging population and disparities in social-economic development. A Bayesian space-time hierarchy model (BSTHM) was used to reveal spatio-temporal variation in the incidence of TB among the elderly in this region between 2009 to 2014. GeoDetector was applied to measure the determinant power (q statistic) of risk factors for TB among the elderly.

RESULTS

The incidence of TB among the elderly exhibited geographical spatial heterogeneity, with a higher incidence in underdeveloped rural areas compared with that in urban areas. Hotspots of TB incidence risk among the elderly were mostly located in north-eastern and southern areas in the study region, far from metropolitan areas. Areas with low risk were distributed mainly in the Beijing-Tianjin metropolitan areas. Social-economic factors had a non-linear influence on elderly TB incidence, with the dominant factors among rural populations being income (q = 0.20) and medical conditions (q = 0.17). These factors had a non-linear interactive effect on the incidence of TB among the elderly, with medical conditions and the level of economic development having the strongest effect (q = 0.54).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings explain spatio-temporal variation in TB incidence and risk determinants of elderly TB in the presence of disparities in social-economic development. High-risk zones were located mainly in rural areas, far from metropolitan centres. Medical conditions and the economic development level were significantly associated with elderly TB incidence, and these factors had a non-linear interactive effect on elderly TB incidence. The findings can help to optimize the allocation of health resources and to control TB transmission in the aging population in this region.

Verbal autopsy models in determining causes of death

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review current practices, strengths and limitations of existing VA approaches to increase understanding of health system stakeholders and researchers.

METHODS

The review was conducted and reported based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines, in which articles were systematically obtained from the PubMed and SCOPUS online databases. The search was limited to English language journal articles published between 2010 and 2020. The review identified 5602 articles and after thorough scrutiny, 25 articles related to VA approaches were included.

RESULTS

(1) InterVA and Tariff are widely used VA models; (2) Bayes rule is the most common and successful algorithm; (3) the lack of standardised datasets and metrics to evaluate models creates bias in determining VA model performance; (4) performance of the models trained using in-hospital data cannot be replicated in community death; (5) the performance of models among physicians and computer-coded algorithms differs with variation in settings.

CONCLUSION

The physician-certified verbal autopsy (PCVA) approaches are more effective in determining community CoD while computerised coding of verbal autopsy (CCVA) models perform well when the underlying CoD are reliably established using hospital data where data are trained in a similar environment to the target population. Our study recommends the use of hybrid models that combine strengths from various models and using an open standards dataset that includes death from different settings.

Association of Xpert MTB/RIF Cycle Threshold Values with Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes

PURPOSE

Considering the current recommendation of the World Health Organization to replace sputum smear microscopy with Xpert MTB/RIF as an initial diagnostic test for tuberculosis (TB), and that culture takes time to provide results, the cycle threshold (C_T) of the Xpert test may be the only way to assess bacillary load. The objective of this study is to evaluate the association of bacillary load, measured by the Xpert C_T, with the TB treatment outcomes.

METHODS

In cohort study, Xpert C_T values were evaluated in cured and non-cured (failure and death) patients. Multivariate analysis was performed to evaluate if C_T is independently associated with TB treatment outcomes.

RESULTS

During this study period, 155 patients (84 cured and 71 non-cured) met the inclusion and were included in the analysis. The mean C_T value for Xpert MTB/RIF test was 20.7 ± 5.6 in cured patients and 17.1 ± 5.6 in non-cured patients (p < 0.0001). Previous TB was more frequent in non-cured (28.2%) than in cured patients (7.1%) (p < 0.0001). Non-cured patients were younger than cured ones (37.1 ± 13.3 vs 43.6 ± 16.2; p = 0.006). HIV was more frequent in non-cured (28.2%) than in cured patients (15.5%), although this difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.054). In multivariate analysis, C_T values, age, previous TB, and HIV were independently associated with non-cure.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower Xpert MTB/RIF C_T values were independently associated with worse treatment outcomes. The information from even a single test performed before starting treatment proved to be a relatively good predictor of TB treatment outcome.

Tuberculosis deaths are predictable and preventable: Comprehensive assessment and clinical care is the key

The goal of reducing tuberculosis (TB) mortality in the END TB Strategy can be achieved if TB deaths are considered predictable and preventable. This will require programs to examine and address some key gaps in the understanding of the distribution and determinants of TB mortality and the current model of assessment and care in high burden countries.

Most deaths in high-burden countries occur in the first eight weeks of treatment and in those belonging to the age group of 15–49 years, living in poverty, with HIV infection and/or low body mass index (BMI). Deaths result from extensive disease, comorbidities like advanced HIV disease complicated with other infections (bacterial, fungal, bloodstream), and moderate-severe undernutrition. Most early deaths in patients with TB, even with TB-HIV co-infection, are due to TB itself.

Comprehensive assessment and clinical care are a prerequisite of patient-centered care. Simple independent predictors of death like unstable vital signs, BMI, mid-upper arm circumference, or inability to stand or walk unaided can be used by programs for risk assessment. Programs need to define criteria for referral for inpatient care, address the paucity of hospital beds and develop and implement guidelines for the clinical management of seriously ill patients with TB, advanced HIV disease and severe undernutrition as co-morbidities. Programs should also consider notification and audit of all TB deaths, similar to audit of maternal deaths, and address the issues in delays in diagnosis, treatment, and quality of care.