[Comparison of cost and benefits of each model for rubella immunization in Japan]

Examination of scenarios introducing rubella vaccine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

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Serosurvey data suggest R₀ values for rubella in the DRC on the range 3 to 8.

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Supplementary immunization activities provide multi-decade reduction in burden.

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Post-vaccine introduction, burden will likely be concentrated in outbreaks.

Background

Rubella vaccine has yet to be introduced into the national immunization schedule of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC); the current burden of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) is unknown and likely to be high. An important consideration prior to introducing rubella containing vaccine (RCV) is the potential inverse relationship between RCV coverage and CRS incidence. Increasing RCV coverage will also increase in the average age of infection. Cumulative infections across all age groups will decrease, but the number of infections in age groups vulnerable to CRS may increase.

Methods

Rubella transmission dynamics in the DRC were simulated using a stochastic agent-based model of transmission. Input parameter values for known properties, demographic variables, and interventions were fixed; infectivity was inferred from seropositivity profiles in survey data.

Results

Our simulations of RCV introduction for the DRC demonstrate that an increase in CRS burden is unlikely. Continued endemic transmission is only plausible when routine immunization coverage is less than 40% and follow-up supplemental immunization activities have poor coverage for decades.

Conclusion

Increased vaccination coverage tends to increase the annual variability of CRS burden. Simulations examining low vaccination coverage and high mean CRS burden are outbreak prone, with multiple years of reduced burden followed by acute outbreaks. These outcomes contrast simulations with no vaccination coverage and high mean CRS burden, which have more consistent burden from year to year.

Model Comparisons of the Cost Effectiveness of Rubella Vaccination Method in Japanese Adults

The number of rubella cases has increased in Japan, especially among adults. Rubella infection in pregnant females can lead to congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). The Japanese government is promoting vaccination to prevent CRS. This study performs a cost-effectiveness analysis of the following four methods: (1) females who wished to become pregnant and partners, with an antibody-titer test; (2) females only, with an antibody-titer test; (3) females and males, without an antibody-titer test; (4) females only, without an antibody-titer test. A decision tree model with a hypothetical cohort of 500 males and 500 females was used for the analysis, and the parameters were obtained from previous studies. The number of avoidances of CRS was defined as the effect. Compared to the case where methods were not implemented, the number of CRS cases that can be prevented by implementing the methods was 0.0115589 by (1) and (3) and 0.0147891 by (2) and (4). The cost effectiveness of (1) to (4) was 287,413,677 JPY, 135,050,529 JPY, 388,524,974 JPY, and 197,744,219 JPY, respectively (1 JPY = 0.00963247 USD). Method (2) was the most cost-effective and did not change by sensitivity analysis. We conclude that the vaccination for females only with an antibody-titer test is recommended.