Rapid Red Sea Deep Water renewals caused by volcanic eruptions and the North Atlantic Oscillation

Oil spill risk analysis for the NEOM shoreline

A risk analysis is conducted considering an array of release sources located around the NEOM shoreline. The sources are selected close to the coast and in neighboring regions of high marine traffic. The evolution of oil spills released by these sources is simulated using the MOHID model, driven by validated, high-resolution met-ocean fields of the Red Sea. For each source, simulations are conducted over a 4-week period, starting from first, tenth and twentieth days of each month, covering five consecutive years. A total of 180 simulations are thus conducted for each source location, adequately reflecting the variability of met-ocean conditions in the region. The risk associated with each source is described in terms of amount of oil beached, and by the time required for the spilled oil to reach the NEOM coast, extending from the Gulf of Aqaba in the North to Duba in the South. To further characterize the impact of individual sources, a finer analysis is performed by segmenting the NEOM shoreline, based on important coastal development and installation sites. For each subregion, source and release event considered, a histogram of the amount of volume beached is generated, also classifying individual events in terms of the corresponding arrival times. In addition, for each subregion considered, an inverse analysis is conducted to identify regions of dependence of the cumulative risk, estimated using the collection of all sources and events considered. The transport of oil around the NEOM shorelines is promoted by chaotic circulations and northwest winds in summer, and a dominant cyclonic eddy in winter. Hence, spills originating from release sources located close to the NEOM shorelines are characterized by large monthly variations in arrival times, ranging from less than a week to more than 2 weeks. Similarly, large variations in the volume fraction of beached oil, ranging from less then 50% to more than 80% are reported. The results of this study provide key information regarding the location of dominant oil spill risk sources, the severity of the potential release events, as well as the time frames within which mitigation actions may need to deployed.

Tritium and radiocarbon in the water column of the Red Sea

Despite being the busiest transient sea in the world due to the Suez Canal, radionuclide distribution studies in seawater and sediment of the Red Sea remain rare. A sampling expedition in the Red Sea was conducted from June 9 to July 6, 2021, visiting a transect of several deep sampling stations located along the central axis of the basin from the Gulf of Aqaba to the southern Red Sea (near Farasan Island, Saudi Arabia). The collected seawater profile samples were analyzed for tritium, radiocarbon and oxygen-18. The observed tritium levels in surface waters of the Red Sea peaked at 0.3-0.4 TU, similar to the values observed in the western Arabian Sea (decay corrected). The values observed at waters below 150 m were around 0.2 TU, however, at depths of 450 and 750 m, tritium minima (<0.2 TU) were observed, which could be associated with a partial return flow of bottom waters from the southern to the northern Red Sea. At two stations at the depth of about 550 m, deep Δ14C minima were observed as well (-4‰ and -10‰), documenting ongoing transport of carbon in the water column, important for sink of anthropogenic carbon.

Hazard assessment of oil spills along the main shipping lane in the Red Sea

This study investigates the risk from oil spills along the main shipping lane in the Red Sea based upon oil spill model trajectories forced by the outputs of validated high resolution regional met-ocean data. Following the intra-annual variations in the met-ocean conditions, the results are presented by classifying the basin into three regions: northern, central and southern Red Sea. The maximum distance traveled by the slick is presented for 1, 2, 5, 10, 14 and 20 days after the commencement of a spill. Different measures of hazard assessment in terms of the concentration of beached oil alongside the corresponding probability maps are also analyzed. The volume fractions of beached, dispersed and evaporated oil, 20 days after the commencement of a spill are quantified. The Red Sea general circulation is characterized by rich mesoscale eddies, which appear to be the most prevailing dynamics in oil transport in the basin. Two case events are analyzed to closely examine the effects of the mesoscale circulations on the fate of spilled oil. The results of this study provide a comprehensive assessment of oil spill hazards in the Red Sea, stemming its main shipping lane and identifies the areas at high risk that require timely mitigation strategies.

The Red Sea Deep Water is a potent source of atmospheric ethane and propane

Non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) such as ethane and propane are significant atmospheric pollutants and precursors of tropospheric ozone, while the Middle East is a global emission hotspot due to  extensive oil and gas production. Here we compare in situ hydrocarbon measurements, performed around the Arabian Peninsula, with global model simulations that include current emission inventories (EDGAR) and state-of-the-art atmospheric circulation and chemistry mechanisms (EMAC model). While measurements of high mixing ratios over the Arabian Gulf are adequately simulated, strong underprediction by the model was found over the northern Red Sea. By examining the individual sources in the model and by utilizing air mass back-trajectory investigations and Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) analysis, we deduce that Red Sea Deep Water (RSDW) is an unexpected, potent source of atmospheric NMHCs. This overlooked underwater source is comparable with total anthropogenic emissions from entire Middle Eastern countries, and significantly impacts the regional atmospheric chemistry.

Dissolved organic carbon contribution to oxygen respiration in the central Red Sea

In oligotrophic waters, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is mostly produced in the surface layers by phytoplankton and remineralized by heterotrophic prokaryotes throughout the water column. DOC surface excess is subducted and exported to deeper layers where a semi-labile fraction is further processed contributing to oxygen consumption. How this cycling of DOC occurs in the Red Sea, one of the warmest oligotrophic marine basins, is virtually unknown. We examined DOC vertical and seasonal variability in a mesopelagic station (ca. 700 m depth) of the central Red Sea performing monthly profile samplings over a two-year period. Together with DOC vertical and seasonal distribution we evaluated the interaction with heterotrophic prokaryotes and contribution to oxygen respiration. DOC values ranged from 41.4 to 95.4 µmol C L⁻¹, with concentrations in the epipelagic (70.0 ± 7.5 µmol C L⁻¹) 40% higher on average than in the mesopelagic (50.7 ± 4.1 µmol C L⁻¹). Subduction of seasonally accumulated semi-labile DOC was estimated to be responsible for ∼20% of the oxygen consumption mostly occurring at the low epipelagic-upper mesopelagic boundary layer. Variability in mesopelagic waters was higher than expected (ca. 20 µmol C L⁻¹) evidencing a more active realm than previously thought, with consequences for carbon sequestration.

Evaluating tropical phytoplankton phenology metrics using contemporary tools

The timing of phytoplankton growth (phenology) in tropical oceans is a crucial factor influencing the survival rates of higher trophic levels, food web structure and the functioning of coral reef ecosystems. Phytoplankton phenology is thus categorised as an 'ecosystem indicator', which can be utilised to assess ecosystem health in response to environmental and climatic perturbations. Ocean-colour remote sensing is currently the only technique providing global, long-term, synoptic estimates of phenology. However, due to limited available in situ datasets, studies dedicated to the validation of satellite-derived phenology metrics are sparse. The recent development of autonomous oceanographic observation platforms provides an opportunity to bridge this gap. Here, we use satellite-derived surface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) observations, in conjunction with a Biogeochemical-Argo dataset, to assess the capability of remote sensing to estimate phytoplankton phenology metrics in the northern Red Sea - a typical tropical marine ecosystem. We find that phenology metrics derived from both contemporary platforms match with a high degree of precision (within the same 5-day period). The remotely-sensed surface signatures reflect the overall water column dynamics and successfully capture Chl-a variability related to convective mixing. Our findings offer important insights into the capability of remote sensing for monitoring food availability in tropical marine ecosystems, and support the use of satellite-derived phenology as an ecosystem indicator for marine management strategies in regions with limited data availability.