Reduced tropical cyclone densities and ocean effects due to anthropogenic greenhouse warming

Moisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate

The intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) is expected to increase in response to greenhouse warming. However, how future climate change will affect TC frequencies and tracks is still under debate. Here, to further elucidate the underlying sensitivities and mechanisms, we study TCs response to different past and future climate forcings. Using a high-resolution TC-resolving global Earth system model with 1/4° atmosphere and 1/10° ocean resolution, we conducted a series of paleo-time-slice and future greenhouse warming simulations targeting the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, 125 ka), glacial sub-stage MIS5d (115 ka), present-day (PD), and CO2 doubling (2×CO2) conditions. Our analysis reveals that precessional forcing created an interhemispheric difference in simulated TC densities, whereas future CO2 forcing impacts both hemispheres in the same direction. In both cases, we find that TC genesis frequency, density, and intensity are primarily controlled by changes in tropospheric thermal and moisture structure, exhibiting a clear reduction in TC genesis density in warmer hemispheres.

Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model

Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We find that the number of TCs decreases (- 45 % ) in the North Atlantic but increases (+ 15 % ) in the Western Pacific. Part of these opposing variations are linked to differences in the ocean's meridional overturning circulation, which gives rise to a different sea surface temperature response and air-sea fluxes between the two basins. The results show the important role of oceanic climate change on TC response.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3.

Radar and optical remote sensing for near real-time assessments of cyclone impacts on coastal ecosystems

Rapid impact assessment of cyclones on coastal ecosystems is critical for timely rescue and rehabilitation operations in highly human-dominated landscapes. Such assessments should also include damage assessments of vegetation for restoration planning in impacted natural landscapes. Our objective is to develop a remote sensing-based approach combining satellite data derived from optical (Sentinel-2), radar (Sentinel-1), and LiDAR (Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation) platforms for rapid assessment of post-cyclone inundation in non-forested areas and vegetation damage in a primarily forested ecosystem. We apply this multi-scalar approach for assessing damages caused by the cyclone Amphan that hit coastal India and Bangladesh in May 2020, severely flooding several districts in the two countries, and causing destruction to the Sundarban mangrove forests. Our analysis shows that at least 6821 sq. km. land across the 39 study districts was inundated even after 10 days after the cyclone. We further calculated the change in forest greenness as the difference in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) pre- and post-cyclone. Our findings indicate a <0.2 unit decline in NDVI in 3.45 sq. km. of the forest. Rapid assessment of post-cyclone damage in mangroves is challenging due to limited navigability of waterways, but critical for planning of mitigation and recovery measures. We demonstrate the utility of Otsu method, an automated statistical approach of the Google Earth Engine platform to identify inundated areas within days after a cyclone. Our radar-based inundation analysis advances current practices because it requires minimal user inputs, and is effective in the presence of high cloud cover. Such rapid assessment, when complemented with detailed information on species and vegetation composition, can inform appropriate restoration efforts in severely impacted regions and help decision makers efficiently manage resources for recovery and aid relief. We provide the datasets from this study on an open platform to aid in future research and planning endeavors.

Sericulture and the edible-insect industry can help humanity survive: insects are more than just bugs, food, or feed

The most serious threat which humans face is rapid global climate change, as the Earth shifts rapidly into a regime less hospitable to humans. To address the crisis caused by severe global climate change, it will be necessary to modify humankind's way of life. Because livestock production accounts for more than 14.5% of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it is critical to reduce the dependence of humans on protein nutrients and calories obtained from livestock. One way to do so is to use insects as food. Compared with typical livestock, farming edible insects (or "mini-livestock") produce fewer GHG emissions, require less space and water, involve shorter life cycles, and have higher feed conversion rates. It has been recently reported that consumption of certain insects can prevent or treat human diseases. This review goes beyond entomophagy to entomotherapy and their application to the food industry.

Traditional and novel time-series approaches reveal submarine groundwater discharge dynamics under baseline and extreme event conditions

Groundwater is a vital resource for humans and groundwater dependent ecosystems. Coastal aquifers and submarine groundwater discharge (SGD), both influenced by terrestrial and marine forces, are increasingly affected by climate variations and sea-level rise. Despite this, coastal groundwater resources and discharge are frequently poorly constrained, limiting our understanding of aquifer responses to external forces. We apply traditional and novel time-series approaches using an SGD dataset of previously unpublished resolution and duration, to analyze the dependencies between precipitation, groundwater level, and SGD at a model site (Kīholo Bay, Hawai'i). Our objectives include (1) determining the relative contribution of SGD drivers over tidal and seasonal periods, (2) establishing temporal relationships and thresholds of processes influencing SGD, and (3) evaluating the impacts of anomalous events, such as tropical storms, on SGD. This analysis reveals, for example, that precipitation is only a dominant influence during wet periods, and otherwise tides and waves dictate the dynamics of SGD. It also provides time lags between intense storm events and higher SGD rates, as well as thresholds for precipitation, wave height and tides affecting SGD. Overall, we demonstrate an approach for modeling a hydrological system while elucidating coastal aquifer and SGD response in unprecedented detail.

Scientists' warning - The outstanding biodiversity of islands is in peril

Despite islands contributing only 6.7% of land surface area, they harbor ~20% of the Earth’s biodiversity, but unfortunately also ~50% of the threatened species and 75% of the known extinctions since the European expansion around the globe. Due to their geological and geographic history and characteristics, islands act simultaneously as cradles of evolutionary diversity and museums of formerly widespread lineages—elements that permit islands to achieve an outstanding endemicity. Nevertheless, the majority of these endemic species are inherently vulnerable due to genetic and demographic factors linked with the way islands are colonized. Here, we stress the great variation of islands in their physical geography (area, isolation, altitude, latitude) and history (age, human colonization, human density). We provide examples of some of the most species rich and iconic insular radiations. Next, we analyze the natural vulnerability of the insular biota, linked to genetic and demographic factors as a result of founder events as well as the typically small population sizes of many island species. We note that, whereas evolution toward island syndromes (including size shifts, derived insular woodiness, altered dispersal ability, loss of defense traits, reduction in clutch size) might have improved the ability of species to thrive under natural conditions on islands, it has simultaneously made island biota disproportionately vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures such as habitat loss, overexploitation, invasive species, and climate change. This has led to the documented extinction of at least 800 insular species in the past 500 years, in addition to the many that had already gone extinct following the arrival of first human colonists on islands in prehistoric times. Finally, we summarize current scientific knowledge on the ongoing biodiversity loss on islands worldwide and express our serious concern that the current trajectory will continue to decimate the unique and irreplaceable natural heritage of the world’s islands. We conclude that drastic actions are urgently needed to bend the curve of the alarming rates of island biodiversity loss.

Insolation-paced sea level and sediment flux during the early Pleistocene in Southeast Asia

Global marine archives from the early Pleistocene indicate that glacial-interglacial cycles, and their corresponding sea-level cycles, have predominantly a periodicity of ~ 41 kyrs driven by Earth’s obliquity. Here, we present a clastic shallow-marine record from the early Pleistocene in Southeast Asia (Cholan Formation, Taiwan). The studied strata comprise stacked cyclic successions deposited in offshore to nearshore environments in the paleo-Taiwan Strait. The stratigraphy was compared to both a δ¹⁸O isotope record of benthic foraminifera and orbital parameters driving insolation at the time of deposition. Analyses indicate a strong correlation between depositional cycles and Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, which is precession-dominated with an obliquity component. Our results represent geological evidence of precession-dominated sea-level fluctuations during the early Pleistocene, independent of a global ice-volume proxy. Preservation of this signal is possible due to the high-accommodation creation and high-sedimentation rate in the basin enhancing the completeness of the stratigraphic record.

Rapid observations of ocean dynamics and stratification along a steep island coast during Hurricane María

Hurricanes are extreme storms that affect coastal communities, but the linkages between hurricane forcing and ocean dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we present full water column observations at unprecedented resolution from the southwest Puerto Rico insular shelf and slope during Hurricane María, representing a rare set of high-frequency, subsurface, oceanographic observations collected along an island margin during a hurricane. The shelf geometry and orientation relative to the storm acted to stabilize and strengthen stratification. This maintained elevated sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) throughout the storm and led to an estimated 65% greater potential hurricane intensity contribution at this site before eye passage. Coastal cooling did not occur until 11 hours after the eye passage. Our findings present a new framework for how hurricane interaction with insular island margins may generate baroclinic processes that maintain elevated SSTs, thus potentially providing increased energy for the storm.