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Davidson MR, Filatova T, Peng W, Verbeek L, Kucuksayacigil F. Simulating institutional heterogeneity in sustainability science. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2215674121. [PMID: 38359297 PMCID: PMC10895347 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2215674121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2022] [Accepted: 12/13/2023] [Indexed: 02/17/2024] Open
Abstract
Sustainability outcomes are influenced by the laws and configurations of natural and engineered systems as well as activities in socio-economic systems. An important subset of human activity is the creation and implementation of institutions, formal and informal rules shaping a wide range of human behavior. Understanding these rules and codifying them in computational models can provide important missing insights into why systems function the way they do (static) as well as the pace and structure of transitions required to improve sustainability (dynamic). Here, we conduct a comparative synthesis of three modeling approaches- integrated assessment modeling, engineering-economic optimization, and agent-based modeling-with underexplored potential to represent institutions. We first perform modeling experiments on climate mitigation systems that represent specific aspects of heterogeneous institutions, including formal policies and institutional coordination, and informal attitudes and norms. We find measurable but uneven aggregate impacts, while more politically meaningful distributional impacts are large across various actors. Our results show that omitting institutions can influence the costs of climate mitigation and miss opportunities to leverage institutional forces to speed up emissions reduction. These experiments allow us to explore the capacity of each modeling approach to represent insitutions and to lay out a vision for the next frontier of endogenizing institutional change in sustainability science models. To bridge the gap between modeling, theories, and empirical evidence on social institutions, this research agenda calls for joint efforts between sustainability modelers who wish to explore and incorporate institutional detail, and social scientists studying the socio-political and economic foundations for sustainability transitions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael R Davidson
- School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093
- Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093
| | - Tatiana Filatova
- Department of Multi Actor Systems, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands
| | - Wei Peng
- School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
- Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
| | - Liz Verbeek
- Department of Multi Actor Systems, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands
| | - Fikri Kucuksayacigil
- School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093
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Sparks MS, Farahbakhsh I, Anand M, Bauch CT, Conlon KC, East JD, Li T, Lickley M, Garcia-Menendez F, Monier E, Saari RK. Health and equity implications of individual adaptation to air pollution in a changing climate. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2215685121. [PMID: 38227646 PMCID: PMC10835109 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2215685121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2023] [Accepted: 11/05/2023] [Indexed: 01/18/2024] Open
Abstract
Future climate change can cause more days with poor air quality. This could trigger more alerts telling people to stay inside to protect themselves, with potential consequences for health and health equity. Here, we study the change in US air quality alerts over this century due to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), who they may affect, and how they may respond. We find air quality alerts increase by over 1 mo per year in the eastern United States by 2100 and quadruple on average. They predominantly affect areas with high Black populations and leakier homes, exacerbating existing inequalities and impacting those less able to adapt. Reducing emissions can offer significant annual health benefits ($5,400 per person) by mitigating the effect of climate change on air pollution and its associated risks of early death. Relying on people to adapt, instead, would require them to stay inside, with doors and windows closed, for an extra 142 d per year, at an average cost of $11,000 per person. It appears likelier, however, that people will achieve minimal protection without policy to increase adaptation rates. Boosting adaptation can offer net benefits, even alongside deep emission cuts. New adaptation policies could, for example: reduce adaptation costs; reduce infiltration and improve indoor air quality; increase awareness of alerts and adaptation; and provide measures for those working or living outdoors. Reducing emissions, conversely, lowers everyone's need to adapt, and protects those who cannot adapt. Equitably protecting human health from air pollution under climate change requires both mitigation and adaptation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matt S. Sparks
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ONN2L 3G1, Canada
| | - Isaiah Farahbakhsh
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Waterloo, ONN1G 2W1, Canada
| | - Madhur Anand
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Waterloo, ONN1G 2W1, Canada
| | - Chris T. Bauch
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ONN2L 3G, Canada
| | - Kathryn C. Conlon
- School of Medicine, Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA95616
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, University of California, Davis, CA95616
| | - James D. East
- Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC27695
| | - Tianyuan Li
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ONN2L 3G1, Canada
| | - Megan Lickley
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA02139N
| | - Fernando Garcia-Menendez
- Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC27695
| | - Erwan Monier
- Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA95616
| | - Rebecca K. Saari
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ONN2L 3G1, Canada
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Selin NE, Giang A, Clark WC. Progress in modeling dynamic systems for sustainable development. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2216656120. [PMID: 37751553 PMCID: PMC10556647 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2216656120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/28/2023] Open
Abstract
This Perspective evaluates recent progress in modeling nature-society systems to inform sustainable development. We argue that recent work has begun to address longstanding and often-cited challenges in bringing modeling to bear on problems of sustainable development. For each of four stages of modeling practice-defining purpose, selecting components, analyzing interactions, and assessing interventions-we highlight examples of dynamical modeling methods and advances in their application that have improved understanding and begun to inform action. Because many of these methods and associated advances have focused on particular sectors and places, their potential to inform key open questions in the field of sustainability science is often underappreciated. We discuss how application of such methods helps researchers interested in harnessing insights into specific sectors and locations to address human well-being, focus on sustainability-relevant timescales, and attend to power differentials among actors. In parallel, application of these modeling methods is helping to advance theory of nature-society systems by enhancing the uptake and utility of frameworks, clarifying key concepts through more rigorous definitions, and informing development of archetypes that can assist hypothesis development and testing. We conclude by suggesting ways to further leverage emerging modeling methods in the context of sustainability science.
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Affiliation(s)
- Noelle E. Selin
- Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA02139
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA02139
| | - Amanda Giang
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BCV6T 1Z4, Canada
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BCV6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - William C. Clark
- John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA02138
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McLamore E, Duckworth O, Boyer TH, Marshall AM, Call DF, Bhadha JH, Guzmán S. Perspective: Phosphorus monitoring must be rooted in sustainability frameworks spanning material scale to human scale. WATER RESEARCH X 2023; 19:100168. [PMID: 36793852 PMCID: PMC9923219 DOI: 10.1016/j.wroa.2023.100168] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2022] [Revised: 01/25/2023] [Accepted: 01/26/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Phosphorus (P) is a finite resource, and its environmental fate and transport is complex. With fertilizer prices expected to remain high for years and disruption to supply chains, there is a pressing need to recover and reuse P (primarily as fertilizer). Whether recovery is to occur from urban systems (e.g., human urine), agricultural soil (e.g., legacy P), or from contaminated surface waters, quantification of P in various forms is vital. Monitoring systems with embedded near real time decision support, so called cyber physical systems, are likely to play a major role in the management of P throughout agro-ecosystems. Data on P flow(s) connects the environmental, economic, and social pillars of the triple bottom line (TBL) sustainabilty framework. Emerging monitoring systems must account for complex interactions in the sample, and interface with a dynamic decision support system that considers adaptive dynamics to societal needs. It is known from decades of study that P is ubiquitous, yet without quantitative tools for studying the dynamic nature of P in the environment, the details may remain elusive. If new monitoring systems (including CPS and mobile sensors) are informed by sustainability frameworks, data-informed decision making may foster resource recovery and environmental stewardship from technology users to policymakers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric McLamore
- Science and Technologies for Phosphorus Sustainability (STEPS) Center, United States
- Agricultural Sciences, Clemson University, United States
- Materials Science and Engineering, North Carolina State University, United States
| | - Owen Duckworth
- Science and Technologies for Phosphorus Sustainability (STEPS) Center, United States
- Crop and Soil Sciences, North Carolina State University, United States
| | - Treavor H. Boyer
- Science and Technologies for Phosphorus Sustainability (STEPS) Center, United States
- Department of Sociology, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, United States
| | - Anna-Maria Marshall
- Science and Technologies for Phosphorus Sustainability (STEPS) Center, United States
- School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment (SSEBE), Arizona State University, United States
| | - Douglas F. Call
- Science and Technologies for Phosphorus Sustainability (STEPS) Center, United States
- Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States
| | - Jehangir H. Bhadha
- Science and Technologies for Phosphorus Sustainability (STEPS) Center, United States
- Soil, Water, and Ecosystem Sciences, University of Florida, Everglades Research and Education Center, Belle Glade, FL, United States
| | - Sandra Guzmán
- Science and Technologies for Phosphorus Sustainability (STEPS) Center, United States
- Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Indian River Research and Education Center, Fort Pierce, FL, United States
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Liao Q, Dong M, Yuan J, Lam WWT, Fielding R. Community vulnerability to the COVID-19 pandemic: A narrative synthesis from an ecological perspective. J Glob Health 2022; 12:05054. [PMID: 36462204 PMCID: PMC9719409 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.12.05054] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Background We aimed to conduct a narrative synthesis of components and indicators of community vulnerability to a pandemic and discuss their interrelationships from an ecological perspective. Methods We searched from PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, PsycINFO, and Scopus (updated to November 2021) for studies focusing on community vulnerability to a pandemic caused by novel respiratory viruses on a geographic unit basis . Studies that reported the associations of community vulnerability levels with at least one disease morbidity or mortality outcome were included. Results Forty-one studies were included. All were about the COVID-19 pandemic. Suitable temperature and humidity environments, advanced social and human development (including high population density and human mobility, connectivity, and occupations), and settings that intensified physical interactions are important indicators of vulnerability to viral exposure. However, the eventual pandemic health impacts are predominant in communities that faced environmental pollution, higher proportions of socioeconomically deprived people, health deprivation, higher proportions of poor-condition households, limited access to preventive health care and urban infrastructure, uneven social and human development, and racism. More stringent social distancing policies were associated with lower COVID-19 morbidity and mortality only in the early pandemic phases. Prolonged social distancing policies can disproportionately burden the socially disadvantaged and racially/ethnically marginalized groups. Conclusions Community vulnerability to a pandemic is foremost the vulnerability of the ecological systems shaped by complex interactions between the human and environmental systems. Registration PROSPERO (CRD42021266186).
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Zino L, Ye M, Cao M. Facilitating innovation diffusion in social networks using dynamic norms. PNAS NEXUS 2022; 1:pgac229. [PMID: 36712374 PMCID: PMC9802266 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac229] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2022] [Accepted: 09/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Dynamic norms have recently emerged as a powerful method to encourage individuals to adopt an innovation by highlighting a growing trend in its uptake. However, there have been no concrete attempts to understand how this individual-level mechanism might shape the collective population behavior. Here, we develop a framework to examine this by encapsulating dynamic norms within a game-theoretic mathematical model for innovation diffusion. Specifically, we extend a network coordination game by incorporating a probabilistic mechanism where an individual adopts the action with growing popularity, instead of the standard best-response update rule; the probability of such an event captures the population's "sensitivity" to dynamic norms. Theoretical analysis reveals that sensitivity to dynamic norms is key to facilitating social diffusion. Small increases in sensitivity reduces the advantage of the innovation over status quo or the number of initial innovators required to unlock diffusion, while a sufficiently large sensitivity alone guarantees diffusion.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Mengbin Ye
- Centre for Optimisation and Decision Science, Curtin University, Kent Street, Bentley WA 6102, Australia
| | - Ming Cao
- Engineering and Technology Institute Groningen, University of Groningen, Nijenborgh 4, 9747 AG Groningen, The Netherlands
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