Inequities in liver transplant allocation

Potential predictive value of the MELD score for short-term mortality after liver transplantation

In the last years, a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was suggested as a disease severity score for patients with end-stage liver disease awaiting liver transplantation. In the early 2002, United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) has proposed to replace the current status 2A, 2B, and 3 by a modified version of the original MELD score based upon patient risk for 3-month mortality on the waiting list. In this study UNOS status and MELD score were evaluated retrospectively for postoperative 3-month mortality in patients who underwent liver transplantation from 2000 to 2001. Liver recipients were stratified for UNOS status 2A, 2B, and 3, and the corresponding MELD score was calculated for each patient. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed for both conventional UNOS status and MELD score by fitting patient deaths within 3 months after liver transplantation. The MELD score revealed a better prediction rate for 3-month mortality after the first LT than conventional UNOS status, although no statistical significance was evident by ROC curve comparison. This preliminary study seems to suggest a potentially better predictive rate for the MELD score than conventional UNOS status concerning short-term mortality after liver transplantation.

Survival after liver transplantation in the United States: a disease-specific analysis of the UNOS database

Our goal was to describe disease-specific survival and the clinical variables that predict survival in a large national cohort of adult liver transplant recipients. Data on 17,044 adult patients who received an initial orthotopic liver transplant between 1990 and 1996 with follow-up through 1999 was obtained from the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). Disease-specific Kaplan-Meier survival plots and Cox Proportional Hazards models were estimated, and differences in the clinical characteristics of patients at the time of transplantation by disease were examined. Overall posttransplant survival currently exceeds 85% in the first year and is approaching 75% at 5 years. Unadjusted Kaplan-Meier survival is improved for recipients who are younger, female, and in better clinical condition. Survival is a function of disease and level of illness: cancer, fulminant liver failure, alcoholic liver disease, and the hepatitidies have the poorest prognosis, while primary billiary cirrohsis and sclerosing cholangitis have the best. Recipients who were outpatients before transplantation have longer survival than those transplanted from the hospital or intensive care unit. Although the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score was designed to predict pretransplant survival, patients with higher MELD scores have poorer posttransplant survival, but the MELD score is less predictive than the specific disease. Differences in disease-specific survival are partially explained by differences in disease severity at the time of transplantation. In conclusion, Disease-specific survival models indicate that there remains tremendous variability in survival as a function of underlying liver disease. However, a significant portion of the difference in survival between diseases arises from differences in clinical characteristics at the time of transplantation.