How to measure sustainable progress

Progress toward Sustainable Development Goals and interlinkages between them in Arctic countries

The adoption of the 2030 Agenda and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) contribute to addressing the multiple and complex challenges faced by humankind. In particular, the increasing impact of climate change and globalization represent a great challenge for the sustainable development of Arctic countries and efforts are needed to measure, assess, and compare the progress toward SDGs and the trends in this region. This study used 69 indicators closely related to Arctic countries and a composite indicator approach to assess their sustainability performance. SDG interlinkages were also assessed through Spearman's rank order correlation. The results showed that the sustainable development of Arctic countries gradually improved from 2000 to 2020, with increasing scores recorded for 82% of the goals and 73% of the indicators. Overall, significant progress was observed in the SDG 10 (reduction of inequality), SDG 3 (health improvement), and SDG 4 (quality of education). The highest-ranking scores were obtained for poverty reduction (SDG 1), SDG 3, and climate actions (SDG 13) in 2020. Over the 21-year period, Sweden reached the highest overall score for sustainable development, and Russia showed the greatest improvement. Synergies dominated over trade-offs among and within SDGs. SDGs 1, 3, 9, 10, and 11 presented a relatively higher proportion of synergies, while higher proportions of trade-offs were observed for the 8-9, 8-11, 3-12, and 10-12 SDG pairs. The associations of industry development with clean energy use and environmental conservation were strengthened during the study period. However, the performance varied greatly for different indicators, goals, and their correlations among Arctic countries. The results indicate that the main challenges for these countries in relation to SDGs consist in promoting an inclusive economic model as well as sustainable consumption and production patterns.

Dramatic uneven urbanization of large cities throughout the world in recent decades

The world has experienced dramatic urbanization in recent decades. However, we still lack information about the characteristics of urbanization in large cities throughout the world. After analyzing 841 large cities with built-up areas (BUAs) of over 100 km² from 2001 to 2018, here we found an uneven distribution of urbanization at different economic levels. On average, large cities in the low-income and lower-middle-income countries had the highest urban population growth, and BUA expansion in the upper-middle-income countries was more than three times that of the high-income countries. Globally, more than 10% of BUAs in 325 large cities showed significant greening (P < 0.05) from 2001 to 2018. In particular, China accounted for 32% of greening BUAs in the 841 large cities, where about 108 million people lived. Our quantitative results provide information for future urban sustainable development, especially for rational urbanization of the developing world.

Evaluating HIV/Aids prevalence and sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa: the role of health expenditure

BACKGROUND

The sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) present the highest prevalence of HIV/AIDS worldwide; resulting to a significant development challenges at country, region and global level. The previous studies explain at least in part, the impact of the epidemic, however the impact of HIV/AIDS in long-term economic behavior were not yet clear. There is clearly few or absence of studies on the impact of the impact of the epidemic on sustainable development.

OBJECTIVE

This study focused on macroeconomic analysis of the HIV/AIDS impact on sustainable development in SSA.

METHODS

The study utilized a panel dataset covering 23 countries from 1993 until 2016, and employed Panel ARDL/PMG.

RESULT

Our findings reveals a stable long-run relationship between sustainable development and HIV/AIDS prevalence. The error correction coefficient was statistically significant and conclude that HIV/AIDS prevalence has long-run impact on sustainable development.

CONCLUSION

The main implication of our study is that, achieving a sustainable development in the presence of high prevalence of HIV/AIDS in SSA is very challenging and as such, the responsiveness of HIV/AIDS to sustainable development should be maintained at minimum which would require more efforts on HIV/AIDS control programs and increase health expenditure.

A New Method for the Quantitative Assessment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and a Case Study on Central Asia

Regarding the sustainable development goals (SDGs) formulated by the United Nations (UN), how to effectively measure, assess and compare the progress and trends of these SDGs in different countries was the problem we wanted to address. Based on past quantitative assessments, this paper proposed a new methodological framework for SDG assessment and analysis, and used two typical Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, as the sample area to test the framework. Our study chose 209 indicators and indicator sets, including 429 specific indicators and collected relevant indicator data for the two countries from 2000 to 2017, then proposed a new direction for the unification of indicator data as well as methods for normalization. Afterward, the scores of each goal and SDG performance were calculated. This analysis was also done innovatively using the Chow Test to conduct further analysis of the SDG performance. According to the assessment, over those 18 years, Kyrgyzstan’s SDGs had been performing poorly, especially the economic SDGs, while the performance of Kazakhstan’s SDGs had remained in constant fluctuation. It could be said that the SDG performance in Central Asia as a whole was not very optimistic. It required the devotion of greater efforts in the gathering of different types of indicator data because there were still gaps in data collection between countries as well as the missing of time-series data, which could challenge the indicator selection and further restrict the follow-up assessment and analysis. The assessment framework presented in this paper can be applied for assessing the long-term performance of national SDGs of different countries, helping analyze the internal relationship dynamic among and within countries, underscoring specific issues of sustainable development, assessing policy and selecting development models and directions.

A network-based frequency analysis of Inclusive Wealth to track sustainable development in world countries

Using human (HC), natural (NC), and produced (PC) capital from Inclusive Wealth as representatives of the triple bottom line of sustainability and utilizing elements of network science, we introduce a Network-based Frequency Analysis (NFA) method to track sustainable development in world countries from 1990 to 2014. The method compares every country with every other and links them when values are close. The country with the most links becomes the main trend, and the performance of every other country is assessed based on its 'orbital' distance from the main trend. Orbital speeds are then calculated to evaluate country-specific dynamic trends. Overall, we find an optimistic trend for HC only, indicating positive impacts of global initiatives aiming towards socio-economic development in developing countries like the Millennium Development Goals and 'Agenda 21'. However, we also find that the relative performance of most countries has not changed significantly in this period, regardless of their gradual development. Specifically, we measure a decrease in produced and natural capital for most countries, despite an increase in GDP, suggesting unsustainable development. Furthermore, we develop a technique to cluster countries and project the results to 2050, and we find a significant decrease in NC for nearly all countries, suggesting an alarming depletion of natural resources worldwide.

Policy coherence to achieve the SDGs: using integrated simulation models to assess effective policies

Coherently addressing the 17 Sustainable Development Goals requires planning tools that guide policy makers. Given the integrative nature of the SDGs, we believe that integrative modelling techniques are especially useful for this purpose. In this paper, we present and demonstrate the use of the new System Dynamics based iSDG family of models. We use a national model for Tanzania to analyse impacts of substantial investments in photovoltaic capacity. Our focus is on the impacts on three SDGs: SDG 3 on healthy lives and well-being, SDG 4 on education, and SDG 7 on energy. In our simulations, the investments in photovoltaics positively affect life expectancy, years of schooling and access to electricity. More importantly, the progress on these dimensions synergizes and leads to broader system-wide impacts. While this one national example illustrates the anticipated impact of an intervention in one specific area on several SDGs, the iSDG model can be used to support similar analyses for policies related to all the 17 SDGs, both individually and concurrently. We believe that integrated models such as the iSDG model can bring interlinks to the forefront and facilitate a shift to a discussion on development grounded in systems thinking.