Cholera vaccine faces major test in Yemen

The history of OCV in India and barriers remaining to programmatic introduction

Cholera-endemic Eastern India has played an important role in the development of oral cholera vaccines (OCV) through conduct of pivotal trials in Kolkata which led to the registration of the first low-cost bivalent killed whole cell OCV in India in 2009, and subsequent prequalification by the World Health Organization prequalification in 2011. Odisha hosted an influential early demonstration project for use of the vaccine in a high-risk population and provided data and lessons that were crucial input in the Vaccine Investment Strategy developed by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance in 2013. With Gavi's decision to finance an OCV stockpile, the demand for OCV surged and vaccine has been deployed with great success worldwide in areas of need in response to outbreaks and disasters, most notably in Africa. However, although India is considered one of the highest burden countries, no further use of OCV has occurred since the demonstration project in Odisha in 2011. In this paper we will summarize the important contributions of India to the development and use of OCV and discuss the possible barriers to OCV introduction as a public health tool to control cholera.

A randomized, observer-blinded, equivalence trial comparing two variations of Euvichol®, a bivalent killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccine, in healthy adults and children in the Philippines

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Bridging study demonstrating the equivalence of two variations of Euvichol®.

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The 600L thimerosal-free Euvichol® is safe and immunogenic in adults and children.

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The scale-up of Euvichol® allows expanding global access to oral cholera vaccine.

Background

To contribute to the global demand for oral cholera vaccine (OCV), the production of Euvichol® was scaled up with elimination of thimerosal. To demonstrate the equivalence of the variations, a study was carried out in the Philippines.

Methods

Healthy male and female adults and children in Manila were randomized to receive two doses of Euvichol® two weeks apart from either the 100L (Comparator) or the 600L (Test) variation. Primary and secondary immunogenicity endpoints were respectively geometric mean titer (GMT) of vibriocidal antibodies (two weeks post second dose) and seroconversion rate (two weeks after each dose) against O1 Inaba, Ogawa, and O139 serogroups. The GMT of vibriocidal antibodies against O1 Inaba, Ogawa, and O139 two weeks post first dose was also measured. To show the equivalence of two variations of Euvichol®, the ratio of GMT and the difference of seroconversion rate between Test and Comparator vaccines were tested with equivalence margin of [0.5, 2.0] for GMT ratio and of 15% for seroconversion rate, respectively. Safety assessment included solicited reactogenicity within 6 days after each dose and unsolicited and serious adverse events.

Results

A total of 442 participants were enrolled. For the overall population, equivalence between Test and Comparator was demonstrated for vibriocidal antibody response against O1 Inaba and Ogawa serotypes and O139 serogroup in both modified intention-to-treat (mITT) and per protocol analysis, since the 95% confidence intervals (CI) of GMT to any serotypes were within the lower and upper boundary [0.5, 2.0]. Seroconversion rates after two doses also showed equivalence for O1 Inaba, Ogawa, and O139. The vaccine was safe and well tolerated, similarly between the two groups.

Conclusion

The study results support the equivalence of the 600L Euvichol® to the 100L formulation in healthy children and adults. The 600L Euvichol® is safe and immunogenic in adults and children.

ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT02502331.

Transmission dynamics of cholera in Yemen, 2017: a real time forecasting

BACKGROUND

A large epidemic of cholera, caused by Vibrio cholerae, serotype Ogawa, has been ongoing in Yemen, 2017. To improve the situation awareness, the present study aimed to forecast the cholera epidemic, explicitly addressing the reporting delay and ascertainment bias.

METHODS

Using weekly incidence of suspected cases, updated as a revised epidemic curve every week, the reporting delay was explicitly incorporated into the estimation model. Using the weekly case fatality risk as calculated by the World Health Organization, ascertainment bias was adjusted, enabling us to parameterize the family of logistic curves (i.e., logistic and generalized logistic models) for describing the unbiased incidence in 2017.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence at the end of the epidemic, was estimated at 790,778 (95% CI: 700,495, 914,442) cases and 767,029 (95% CI: 690,877, 871,671) cases, respectively, by using logistic and generalized logistic models. It was also estimated that we have just passed through the epidemic peak by week 26, 2017. From week 27 onwards, the weekly incidence was predicted to decrease.

CONCLUSIONS

Cholera epidemic in Yemen, 2017 was predicted to soon start to decrease. If the weekly incidence is reported in the up-to-the-minute manner and updated in later weeks, not a single data point but the entire epidemic curve must be precisely updated.

Protection against cholera from killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccines: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccines (kOCVs) are becoming a standard cholera control and prevention tool. However, vaccine efficacy and direct effectiveness estimates have varied, with differences in study design, location, follow-up duration, and vaccine composition posing challenges for public health decision making. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to generate average estimates of kOCV efficacy and direct effectiveness from the available literature.

METHODS

For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and the Cochrane Review Library on July 9, 2016, and ISI Web of Science on July 11, 2016, for randomised controlled trials and observational studies that reported estimates of direct protection against medically attended confirmed cholera conferred by kOCVs. We included studies published on any date in English, Spanish, French, or Chinese. We extracted from the published reports the primary efficacy and effectiveness estimates from each study and also estimates according to number of vaccine doses, duration, and age group. The main study outcome was average efficacy and direct effectiveness of two kOCV doses, which we estimated with random-effect models. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016048232.

FINDINGS

Seven trials (with 695 patients with cholera) and six observational studies (217 patients with cholera) met the inclusion criteria, with an average two-dose efficacy of 58% (95% CI 42-69, I²=58%) and effectiveness of 76% (62-85, I²=0). Average two-dose efficacy in children younger than 5 years (30% [95% CI 15-42], I²=0%) was lower than in those 5 years or older (64% [58-70], I²=0%; p<0·0001). Two-dose efficacy estimates of kOCV were similar during the first 2 years after vaccination, with estimates of 56% (95% CI 42-66, I²=45%) in the first year and 59% (49-67, I²=0) in the second year. The efficacy reduced to 39% (13 to 57, I²=48%) in the third year, and 26% (-46 to 63, I²=74%) in the fourth year.

INTERPRETATION

Two kOCV doses provide protection against cholera for at least 3 years. One kOCV dose provides at least short-term protection, which has important implications for outbreak management. kOCVs are effective tools for cholera control.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.