Deciphering P values: Beware false certainty

Dealing with false positive risk as an indicator of misperceived effectiveness of conservation interventions

As human pressures on the environment continue to spread and intensify, effective conservation interventions are direly needed to prevent threats, reduce conflicts, and recover populations and landscapes in a liaison between science and conservation. It is practically important to discriminate between true and false (or misperceived) effectiveness of interventions as false perceptions may shape a wrong conservation agenda and lead to inappropriate decisions and management actions. This study used the false positive risk (FPR) to estimate the rates of misperceived effectiveness of electric fences (overstated if reported as effective but actually ineffective based on FPR; understated otherwise), explain their causes and propose recommendations on how to improve the representation of true effectiveness. Electric fences are widely applied to reduce damage to fenced assets, such as livestock and beehives, or increase survival of fenced populations. The analysis of 109 cases from 50 publications has shown that the effectiveness of electric fences was overstated in at least one-third of cases, from 31.8% at FPR = 0.2 (20% risk) to 51.1% at FPR = 0.05 (5% risk, true effectiveness). In contrast, understatement reduced from 23.8% to 9.5% at these thresholds of FPR. This means that truly effective applications of electric fences were only 48.9% of all cases reported as effective, but truly ineffective cases were 90.5%, implying that the effectiveness of electric fences was heavily overstated. The main reasons of this bias were the lack of statistical testing or improper reporting of test results (63.3% of cases) and interpretation of marginally significant results (p < 0.05, p < 0.1 and p around 0.05) as indicators of effectiveness (10.1%). In conclusion, FPR is an important tool for estimating true effectiveness of conservation interventions and its application is highly recommended to disentangle true and false effectiveness for planning appropriate conservation actions. Researchers are encouraged to calculate FPR, publish its constituent statistics (especially treatment and control sample sizes) and explicitly provide test results with p values. It is suggested to call the effectiveness “true” if FPR < 0.05, “suggestive” if 0.05 ≤ FPR < 0.2 and “false” if FPR ≥ 0.2.

Introductions and transfers of species by ballast water in the Adriatic Sea

Following the Editorial addressing the BALMAS project, we open the ballast water management special issue for the Adriatic Sea by providing background information on non-indigenous species and the mechanisms (vectors) of transport. Problems allocating introduction mechanisms for various species with certainty are described; in general, key introduction mechanisms are shipping, with ballast water and biofouling as dominant vectors, and aquaculture activities. The dominant mechanisms for introduction may differ through time, between regions and across species. We highlight ballast water as the focus of an international convention to prevent future introductions, reviewing management options and suggesting future research needs. This assessment is not restricted in application to the Adriatic Sea, but is applicable to other coastal waters. Results of such future work may contribute to the experience building phase planned by the International Maritime Organization for a harmonised implementation of the Ballast Water Management Convention.

The location- and scale- specific correlation between temperature and soil carbon sequestration across the globe

Much research has been conducted to understand the spatial distribution of soil carbon stock and its temporal dynamics. However, an agreement has not been reached on whether increasing global temperature has a positive or negative feedback on soil carbon stocks. By analysing global maps of soil organic carbon (SOC) using a spherical wavelet analysis, it was found that the correlation between SOC and soil temperature at the regional scale was negative between 52° N and 40° S parallels and positive beyond this region. This was consistent with a few previous studies and it was assumed that the effect was most likely due to the temperature-dependent SOC formation (photosynthesis) and decomposition (microbial activities and substrate decomposability) processes. The results also suggested that the large SOC stocks distributed in the low-temperature areas might increase under global warming while the small SOC stocks found in the high-temperature areas might decrease accordingly. Although it remains unknown whether the potential increasing soil carbon stocks in the low-temperature areas can offset the loss of carbon stocks in the high-temperature areas, the location- and scale- specific correlations between SOC and temperature should be taken into account for modeling SOC dynamics and SOC sequestration management.