Strengthening the basics: public health responses to prevent the next pandemic

ViralFlow v1.0-a computational workflow for streamlining viral genomic surveillance

ViralFlow v1.0 is a computational workflow developed for viral genomic surveillance. Several key changes turned ViralFlow into a general-purpose reference-based genome assembler for all viruses with an available reference genome. New virus-agnostic modules were implemented to further study nucleotide and amino acid mutations. ViralFlow v1.0 runs on a broad range of computational infrastructures, from laptop computers to high-performance computing (HPC) environments, and generates standard and well-formatted outputs suited for both public health reporting and scientific problem-solving. ViralFlow v1.0 is available at: https://viralflow.github.io/index-en.html.

Health systems impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria control program implementation and malaria burden in Benin: A mixed-method qualitative and mathematical modelling and study

The COVID-19 pandemic has sent ripple effects across health systems and impacted the burden of many other diseases, such as malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. This study takes a mixed method approach to assess the impact of COVID-19 on malaria control programs in three rural communes in Benin. We conducted individual semi-structured interviews with key informants who play important roles in malaria control in Benin at three levels of the health system-national, health zone, and commune. Using a purposive sampling technique, informants were interviewed regarding their roles in malaria control, the impact of the pandemic on their activities, and the mitigation strategies adopted. Relevant themes were identified by content analysis. We then formulated an agent-based model of malaria epidemiology to assess the impacts of treatment disruption on malaria burden. The key informant interviews revealed that essential aspects of malaria control were upheld in Benin due to the close collaboration of public health practitioners and health care providers at all levels of the health system. There were some disruptions to case management services for malaria at the start of the pandemic due to the public avoiding health centers and a brief shortage of malaria treatment that may not be entirely attributable to the pandemic. Results from the agent-based model suggest that duration, severity, and timing of treatment disruption can impact malaria burden in a synergistic manner, though the effects are small given the relatively mild disruptions observed. This study highlights the importance of top-down leadership in health emergencies, as well as the critical role of community health workers in preventing negative health outcomes for their communities. We also showcased the integration of qualitative research and mathematical models-an underappreciated form of mixed methods research that offer immense value in the continued evaluation of rapidly evolving health emergencies.

Modeling Supply and Demand Dynamics of Vaccines against Epidemic-Prone Pathogens: Case Study of Ebola Virus Disease

Health emergencies caused by epidemic-prone pathogens (EPPs) have increased exponentially in recent decades. Although vaccines have proven beneficial, they are unavailable for many pathogens. Furthermore, achieving timely and equitable access to vaccines against EPPs is not trivial. It requires decision-makers to capture numerous interrelated factors across temporal and spatial scales, with significant uncertainties, variability, delays, and feedback loops that give rise to dynamic and unexpected behavior. Therefore, despite progress in filling R&D gaps, the path to licensure and the long-term viability of vaccines against EPPs continues to be unclear. This paper presents a quantitative system dynamics modeling framework to evaluate the long-term sustainability of vaccine supply under different vaccination strategies. Data from both literature and 50 expert interviews are used to model the supply and demand of a prototypical Ebolavirus Zaire (EBOV) vaccine. Specifically, the case study evaluates dynamics associated with proactive vaccination ahead of an outbreak of similar magnitude as the 2018-2020 epidemic in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo. The scenarios presented demonstrate how uncertainties (e.g., duration of vaccine-induced protection) and design criteria (e.g., priority geographies and groups, target coverage, frequency of boosters) lead to important tradeoffs across policy aims, public health outcomes, and feasibility (e.g., technical, operational, financial). With sufficient context and data, the framework provides a foundation to apply the model to a broad range of additional geographies and priority pathogens. Furthermore, the ability to identify leverage points for long-term preparedness offers directions for further research.

Exploring Political Mistrust in Pandemic Risk Communication: Mixed-Method Study Using Social Media Data Analysis

BACKGROUND

This research extends prior studies by the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare on pandemic-related risk perception, concentrating on the role of trust in health authorities and its impact on public health outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

The paper aims to investigate variations in trust levels over time and across social media platforms, as well as to further explore 12 subcategories of political mistrust. It seeks to understand the dynamics of political trust, including mistrust accumulation, fluctuations over time, and changes in topic relevance. Additionally, the study aims to compare qualitative research findings with those obtained through computational methods.

METHODS

Data were gathered from a large-scale data set consisting of 13,629 Twitter and Facebook posts from 2020 to 2023 related to COVID-19. For analysis, a fine-tuned FinBERT model with an 80% accuracy rate was used for predicting political mistrust. The BERTopic model was also used for superior topic modeling performance.

RESULTS

Our preliminary analysis identifies 43 mistrust-related topics categorized into 9 major themes. The most salient topics include COVID-19 mortality, coping strategies, polymerase chain reaction testing, and vaccine efficacy. Discourse related to mistrust in authority is associated with perceptions of disease severity, willingness to adopt health measures, and information-seeking behavior. Our findings highlight that the distinct user engagement mechanisms and platform features of Facebook and Twitter contributed to varying patterns of mistrust and susceptibility to misinformation during the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

The study highlights the effectiveness of computational methods like natural language processing in managing large-scale engagement and misinformation. It underscores the critical role of trust in health authorities for effective risk communication and public compliance. The findings also emphasize the necessity for transparent communication from authorities, concluding that a holistic approach to public health communication is integral for managing health crises effectively.

Hospital Readiness and Perceived Health Professional Challenges to Prevent Pandemics in Gedeo Zone, Ethiopia: A Mixed-Method Study

Background

Pandemics pose serious threats to health, society, and economy worldwide. Ethiopia has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has caused millions of deaths and disrupted essential health services. The readiness of health systems and the challenges that health professionals face in delivering pandemic-related services are crucial for preventing and controlling pandemics. However, these aspects have not been adequately assessed in low-income countries like Ethiopia, where poor prevention techniques and challenging work conditions can increase the transmission of diseases and overwhelm the weak healthcare system. This study aimed to assess hospital readiness and health professional challenges to prevent pandemics in Ethiopia.

Methods

A mixed-methods study design was used to collect data from 24 health professionals and four public hospitals using interviews and a checklist which explored the challenges and barriers of health professionals in preventing pandemics and assessed the hospital readiness. Data were analyzed thematically with open code software and descriptively with SPSS software.

Results

The study revealed the alarming gaps in the hospitals' readiness and the health professionals' capacity to prevent and control pandemics. Most of the hospitals had insufficient preparedness in terms of administrative activities, infection prevention and control (IPC) activities, emergency room preparedness, outpatient services, and logistics and supplies. The health professionals faced multiple challenges, such as lack of resources, training, personal protection, psychological support, and workload. The most critical challenges were the lack of personal protective equipment (PPE) and training, which compromised their safety and effectiveness.

Conclusion

The study underscored the need to enhance the hospitals' readiness and the health professionals' capacity to prevent and control pandemics and health professionals faced various challenges in preventing and controlling pandemics. These challenges include lack of resources, training, psychological support, and lifestyle changes which may compromise their quality of care, safety, and well-being.

Preparing for future outbreaks in Ghana: An overview of current COVID-19, monkeypox, and Marburg disease outbreaks

Amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Ghana is currently grappling with simultaneous outbreaks of Marburg virus disease and human monkeypox virus. The coexistence of these outbreaks emphasizes the imperative for a collaborative and global approach to enhance surveillance and expedite case detection. While Ghana has made efforts to respond to these outbreaks, this paper outlines the lessons learned and proposes recommendations in this regard. It is crucial to intensify response efforts at the local, regional, and national levels to effectively contain the spread of these infectious diseases. Therefore, this paper suggests prioritizing the following recommendations as crucial for assisting Ghana in adequately preparing for future outbreaks and safeguarding global public health: strengthening surveillance system through digitization, rapid and effective response; risk communication and community engagement; healthcare system readiness; and research and collaboration. Also, prioritizing building healthy public policies and developing personal skills of health personnel across the country is key for future outbreak response.

“Local cooperation has been the cornerstone”: facilitators and barriers to resilience in a decentralized health system during COVID-19 in Finland

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to elucidate facilitators and barriers to health system resilience and resilient responses at local and regional levels during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Finland.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors utilized a qualitative research approach and conducted semi-structured interviews (n = 32) with study participants representing five different regions in Finland. Study participants were recruited using purposive and snowball sampling. All study participants had been in management and civil servant positions during the first year of the pandemic, representing municipalities, municipalities' social and healthcare services, hospital districts and regional state administrative agencies. All interviews were completed remotely from April to December 2021 and the recordings transcribed verbatim. The authors coded the transcripts in ATLAS.ti 9.1 using directed content analysis.

Findings

The findings highlighted a wide range of localized responses to the pandemic in Finland. Facilitators to health system resilience included active networks of cooperation, crisis anticipation, transitioning into crisis leadership mode, learning how to incorporate new modes of operation, as well as relying on the competencies and motivation of health workforce. The authors found several barriers to health system resilience, including fragmented organization and management particularly in settings where integrated health care systems were not in place, insufficient preparedness to a prolonged crisis, lack of reliable information regarding COVID-19, not having plans in place for crisis communication, pandemic fatigue, and outflux of health workforce to other positions with better compensation and working conditions.

Originality/value

Factors affecting health system resilience are often studied at the aggregate level of a nation. This study offers insights into what resilient responses look like from the perspective of local and regional actors in a decentralized health system. The results highlight that local capacities and context matter greatly for resilience. The authors call for more nuanced analyses on health systems and health system resilience at the sub-national level.

COVID-19 public health and social measures: a comprehensive picture of six Asian countries

The COVID-19 pandemic will not be the last of its kind. As the world charts a way towards an equitable and resilient recovery, Public Health and Social Measures (PHSMs) that were implemented since the beginning of the pandemic need to be made a permanent feature of health systems that can be activated and readily deployed to tackle sudden surges in infections going forward. Although PHSMs aim to blunt the spread of the virus, and in turn protect lives and preserve health system capacity, there are also unintended consequences attributed to them. Importantly, the interactions between PHSMs and their accompanying key indicators that influence the strength and duration of PHSMs are elements that require in-depth exploration. This research employs case studies from six Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam, to paint a comprehensive picture of PHSMs that protect the lives and livelihoods of populations. Nine typologies of PHSMs that emerged are as follows: (1) physical distancing, (2) border controls, (3) personal protective equipment requirements, (4) transmission monitoring, (5) surge health infrastructure capacity, (6) surge medical supplies, (7) surge human resources, (8) vaccine availability and roll-out and (9) social and economic support measures. The key indicators that influence the strength and duration of PHSMs are as follows: (1) size of community transmission, (2) number of severe cases and mortality, (3) health system capacity, (4) vaccine coverage, (5) fiscal space and (6) technology. Interactions between PHSMs can be synergistic or inhibiting, depending on various contextual factors. Fundamentally, PHSMs do not operate in silos, and a suite of PHSMs that are complementary is required to ensure that lives and livelihoods are safeguarded with an equity lens. For that to be achieved, strong governance structures and community engagement are also required at all levels of the health system.

An argument for pandemic risk management using a multidisciplinary One Health approach to governance: an Australian case study

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant global impact. However, COVID-19 is just one of several high-impact infectious diseases that emerged from wildlife and are linked to the human relationship with nature. The rate of emergence of new zoonoses (diseases of animal origin) is increasing, driven by human-induced environmental changes that threaten biodiversity on a global scale. This increase is directly linked to environmental drivers including biodiversity loss, climate change and unsustainable resource extraction. Australia is a biodiversity hotspot and is subject to sustained and significant environmental change, increasing the risk of it being a location for pandemic origin. Moreover, the global integration of markets means that consumption trends in Australia contributes to the risk of disease spill-over in our regional neighbours in Asia-Pacific, and beyond. Despite the clear causal link between anthropogenic pressures on the environment and increasing pandemic risks, Australia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, like most of the world, has centred largely on public health strategies, with a clear focus on reactive management. Yet, the span of expertise and evidence relevant to the governance of pandemic risk management is much wider than public health and epidemiology. It involves animal/wildlife health, biosecurity, conservation sciences, social sciences, behavioural psychology, law, policy and economic analyses to name just a few.

The authors are a team of multidisciplinary practitioners and researchers who have worked together to analyse, synthesise, and harmonise the links between pandemic risk management approaches and issues in different disciplines to provide a holistic overview of current practice, and conclude the need for reform in Australia. We discuss the adoption of a comprehensive and interdisciplinary ‘One Health’ approach to pandemic risk management in Australia. A key goal of the One Health approach is to be proactive in countering threats of emerging infectious diseases and zoonoses through a recognition of the interdependence between human, animal, and environmental health. Developing ways to implement a One Health approach to pandemic prevention would not only reduce the risk of future pandemics emerging in or entering Australia, but also provide a model for prevention strategies around the world.

Leadership, politics, and communication: challenges of the epidemiology workforce during emergency response

BACKGROUND

Improving the epidemiological response to emergencies requires an understanding of who the responders are, their role and skills, and the challenges they face during responses. In this paper, we explore the role of the epidemiologist and identify challenges they face during emergency response.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional survey to learn more about epidemiologists who respond to public health emergencies. The online survey included open and closed-ended questions on challenges faced while responding, the roles of epidemiology responders, self-rating of skills, and support needed and received. We used purposive sampling to identify participants and a snowballing approach thereafter. We compared data by a number of characteristics, including national or international responder on their last response prior to the survey. We analysed the data using descriptive, content, and exploratory factor analysis.

RESULTS

We received 166 responses from individuals with experience in emergency response. The most frequently reported challenge was navigating the political dynamics of a response, which was more common for international responders than national. National responders experienced fewer challenges related to culture, language, and communication. Epidemiology responders reported a lack of response role clarity, limited knowledge sharing, and communication issues during emergency response. Sixty-seven percent of participants reported they needed support to do their job well; males who requested support were statistically more likely to receive it than females who asked.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study identified that national responders have additional strengths, such as better understanding of the local political environment, language, and culture, which may in turn support identification of local needs and priorities. Although this research was conducted prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the results are even more relevant now. This research builds on emerging evidence on how to strengthen public health emergency response and provides a platform to begin a global conversation to address operational issues and the role of the international epidemiology responder.