The Stunting Tool for Early Prevention: development and external validation of a novel tool to predict risk of stunting in children at 3 years of age

Determinants of concurrent wasting and stunting among children 6 to 23 mo in Indonesia

OBJECTIVES

Concurrent wasting and stunting (WaSt) in a child is a health problem that leads to detrimental effects. However, to our knowledge, there is limited research regarding the prevalence and determinants of WaSt, including in Indonesia. The aim of this study was to analyze the prevalence and determinants of WaSt in children 6 to 23 mo of age.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted with data sets from the Indonesia Nutritional Status Survey (INSS). Data was collected between January and December 2021. About 15 641 children, ages 23 mo, were included. A χ2 analysis examined the association between the dependent and independent variables. A multivariate test analyzed the risk for the independent variable to the dependent, seen through the adjusted odds ratio (aOR).

RESULTS

The prevalence of WaSt was 2.4%. Higher odds for WaSt were seen in the following: • Boys: 2.15 times (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.72-2.68); • Children ages 12 to 23 mo 3.15 times (95% CI, 2.33-4.25); • Those with low birth weight 3.11 times (95% CI, 2.33-4.15) • Those with small birth size: 2 times (95% CI, 1.59-2.54) • Babies born from mothers >35 y of age: 1.5 times (95% CI, 1.19-1.89); • Children who experienced infection: 1.43 times (95% CI, 1.16-1.76); • Children not using the Integrated Health and Nutrition Services (Posyandu): 1.17 times (95% CI; 1.29-2.27); • Children from middle- income families:2.54 times higher odds (95% CI, 1.75-3.7); and • Children from rural areas: 1.37 times (95% CI, 1.1-1.71).

CONCLUSION

WaSt is associated with multiple factors in Indonesia. Hence, policymakers need to address this problem comprehensively.

Stunting in the first year of life: Pathway analysis of a birth cohort

Malnutrition among infants aged below 6 months has been largely overlooked creating gaps in our understanding of factors underlying stunting in early infancy. Recent evidence suggests that pre-natal and early childhood factors may contribute more to driving childhood stunting than previously appreciated. The study was set up to examine pathways including parental and household characteristics, birth size and gestation, and illness in infancy with stunting at birth and months 3, 6 and 12 using an a priori hypothesized framework. It was a secondary analysis of a birth cohort of 1017 infants recruited from four health facilities in Burkina Faso and followed up for one year. Structural equation models (SEM) were generated to explore pathways to stunting at birth and months 3, 6 and 12. The prevalence of being stunted at birth and months 3, 6 and 12 was 7.4%, 23%, 20% and 18% respectively. The fractions of month 12 stunting attributable to being stunted at birth, months 3 and 6 were 11% (95%CI 5.0‒16%), 32% (95%CI 22‒41%) and 40% (95%CI 31‒49%) respectively. In the structural equation model, male sex and maternal characteristics had direct effects on stunting at birth and at 3 months, but not subsequently. Premature birth, twin birth and being stunted at a previous time point were directly associated with stunting at months 3, 6 and 12. Both maternal and paternal characteristics were directly associated with preterm birth. Non-exclusive breastfeeding had borderline positive direct effect on stunting at month 6 but not at month 12. The direct and indirect pathways identified in this study highlight the complex interlinks between child, maternal, paternal and household characteristics. Interventions tackling preterm birth, in utero growth, exclusive breastfeeding and maternal wellbeing may reduce stunting in the first year of life.

Derivation and external validation of clinical prediction rules identifying children at risk of linear growth faltering

Background

Nearly 150 million children under-5 years of age were stunted in 2020. We aimed to develop a clinical prediction rule (CPR) to identify children likely to experience additional stunting following acute diarrhea, to enable targeted approaches to prevent this irreversible outcome.

Methods

We used clinical and demographic data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to build predictive models of linear growth faltering (decrease of ≥0.5 or ≥1.0 in height-for-age z-score [HAZ] at 60-day follow-up) in children ≤59 months presenting with moderate-to-severe diarrhea, and community controls, in Africa and Asia. We screened variables using random forests, and assessed predictive performance with random forest regression and logistic regression using fivefold cross-validation. We used the Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) study to (1) re-derive, and (2) externally validate our GEMS-derived CPR.

Results

Of 7639 children in GEMS, 1744 (22.8%) experienced severe growth faltering (≥0.5 decrease in HAZ). In MAL-ED, we analyzed 5683 diarrhea episodes from 1322 children, of which 961 (16.9%) episodes experienced severe growth faltering. Top predictors of growth faltering in GEMS were: age, HAZ at enrollment, respiratory rate, temperature, and number of people living in the household. The maximum area under the curve (AUC) was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.75, 0.75) with 20 predictors, while 2 predictors yielded an AUC of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.72). Results were similar in the MAL-ED re-derivation. A 2-variable CPR derived from children 0-23 months in GEMS had an AUC = 0.63 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.65), and AUC = 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.74) when externally validated in MAL-ED.

Conclusions

Our findings indicate that use of prediction rules could help identify children at risk of poor outcomes after an episode of diarrheal illness. They may also be generalizable to all children, regardless of diarrhea status.

Funding

This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health under Ruth L. Kirschstein National Research Service Award NIH T32AI055434 and by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R01AI135114).

Anthropometric Kit Development for Stunted Early Detection among Children Under-two Years Old: Providing a Portable Body Length Measurer

BACKGROUND: One of the keys to stunting reduction, a condition of lower height or length compared to their age, is the measurement of children in the community. However, the infantometer as the gold standard is not accessible by all community health workers (CHWs). AIM: The aim is to develop a stunted early detection tool (SEDT) for Indonesian children under-two years old. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This qualitative study was conducted as the first phase of the development process and focused on the experts’ judgments of the prototype. Experts’ judgments were recorded qualitatively. There were five in-depth interviews with anthropometric, health promotion, and media design experts. Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations Theory and thematic content analysis were used to analyze the relative advantages, compatibility, complexity, and observability. RESULTS: The prototype of the SEDT consists of two tools, including a length mat to measure children’s length and a circular disc that helps CHWs classify the nutritional status of the children according to length for age length-for-age Z-score. Most experts agreed that the SEDT is a good instrument for the early detection of stunting among children under 24 months. The tool is designed to be portable, child-friendly, compatible, and easy to use. Although its development has the potential to help CHWs fulfill their responsibilities, major changes were needed specifically to improve the tool’s stability and design. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis gives broad information about the SEDT’s potential as a SEDT considering its relative advantages, complexity, compatibility, and observability. Further research is important to validate potential users’ responses in a representative population.