Anticipating the future: prognostic tools as a complementary strategy to improve care for patients with febrile illnesses in resource-limited settings

Innovative strategies for the surveillance, prevention, and management of pediatric infections applied to low-income settings

INTRODUCTION

Infectious diseases still cause a significant burden of morbidity and mortality among children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). There are ample opportunities for innovation in surveillance, prevention, and management, with the ultimate goal of improving survival.

AREAS COVERED

This review discusses the current status in the use and development of innovative strategies for pediatric infectious diseases in LMICs by focusing on surveillance, diagnosis, prevention, and management. Topics covered are: Minimally Invasive Tissue Sampling as a technique to accurately ascertain the cause of death; Genetic Surveillance to trace the pathogen genomic diversity and emergence of resistance; Artificial Intelligence as a multidisciplinary tool; Portable noninvasive imaging methods; and Prognostic Biomarkers to triage and risk stratify pediatric patients.

EXPERT OPINION

To overcome the specific hurdles in child health for LMICs, some innovative strategies appear at the forefront of research. If the development of these next-generation tools remains focused on accessibility, sustainability and capacity building, reshaping epidemiological surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment in LMICs, can become a reality and result in a significant public health impact. Their integration with existing healthcare infrastructures may revolutionize disease detection and surveillance, and improve child health and survival.

Defining the role of host biomarkers in the diagnosis and prognosis of the severity of childhood pneumonia: a prospective cohort study

Reliable tools to inform outpatient management of childhood pneumonia in resource-limited settings are needed. We investigated the value added by biomarkers of the host infection response to the performance of the Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (LqSOFA), for triage of children presenting with pneumonia to a primary care clinic in a refugee camp on the Thailand-Myanmar border. 900 consecutive presentations of children aged ≤ 24 months meeting WHO pneumonia criteria were included. The primary outcome was receipt of supplemental oxygen. We compared discrimination of a clinical risk score (LqSOFA) to markers of endothelial injury (Ang-1, Ang-2, sFlt-1), immune activation (CHI3L1, IP-10, IL-1ra, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, sTNFR-1, sTREM-1), and inflammation (CRP, PCT), and quantified the net benefit of including biomarkers alongside LqSOFA. We evaluated the differential contribution of LqSOFA and host biomarkers to the diagnosis and prognosis of pneumonia severity. 49/900 (5.4%) presentations met the primary outcome. Discrimination of LqSOFA and Ang-2, the best performing biomarker, were comparable (AUC 0.82 [95% CI 0.76-0.88] and 0.81 [95% CI 0.74-0.87] respectively). Combining Ang-2 with LqSOFA improved discrimination (AUC 0.91; 95% CI 0.87-0.94; p < 0.001), and resulted in greater net benefit, with 10-30% fewer children who required oxygen supplementation incorrectly identified as safe for community-based management. Ang-2 had greater prognostic utility than LqSOFA to identify children requiring supplemental oxygen later in their illness course. Combining Ang-2 and LqSOFA could guide referrals of childhood pneumonia from resource-limited community settings. Further work on test development and integration into patient triage is required.

Prognostic accuracy of biomarkers of immune and endothelial activation in Mozambican children hospitalized with pneumonia

Pneumonia is a leading cause of child mortality. However, currently we lack simple, objective, and accurate risk-stratification tools for pediatric pneumonia. Here we test the hypothesis that measuring biomarkers of immune and endothelial activation in children with pneumonia may facilitate the identification of those at risk of death. We recruited children <10 years old fulfilling WHO criteria for pneumonia and admitted to the Manhiça District Hospital (Mozambique) from 2010 to 2014. We measured plasma levels of IL-6, IL-8, Angpt-2, sTREM-1, sFlt-1, sTNFR1, PCT, and CRP at admission, and assessed their prognostic accuracy for in-hospital, 28-day, and 90-day mortality. Healthy community controls, within same age strata and location, were also assessed. All biomarkers were significantly elevated in 472 pneumonia cases versus 80 controls (p<0.001). IL-8, sFlt-1, and sTREM-1 were associated with in-hospital mortality (p<0.001) and showed the best discrimination with AUROCs of 0.877 (95% CI: 0.782 to 0.972), 0.832 (95% CI: 0.729 to 0.935) and 0.822 (95% CI: 0.735 to 0.908), respectively. Their performance was superior to CRP, PCT, oxygen saturation, and clinical severity scores. IL-8, sFlt-1, and sTREM-1 remained good predictors of 28-day and 90-day mortality. These findings suggest that measuring IL-8, sFlt-1, or sTREM-1 at hospital presentation can guide risk-stratification of children with pneumonia, which could enable prioritized care to improve survival and resource allocation.

ePOCT+ and the medAL-suite: Development of an electronic clinical decision support algorithm and digital platform for pediatric outpatients in low- and middle-income countries

Electronic clinical decision support algorithms (CDSAs) have been developed to address high childhood mortality and inappropriate antibiotic prescription by helping clinicians adhere to guidelines. Previously identified challenges of CDSAs include their limited scope, usability, and outdated clinical content. To address these challenges we developed ePOCT+, a CDSA for the care of pediatric outpatients in low- and middle-income settings, and the medical algorithm suite (medAL-suite), a software for the creation and execution of CDSAs. Following the principles of digital development, we aim to describe the process and lessons learnt from the development of ePOCT+ and the medAL-suite. In particular, this work outlines the systematic integrative development process in the design and implementation of these tools required to meet the needs of clinicians to improve uptake and quality of care. We considered the feasibility, acceptability and reliability of clinical signs and symptoms, as well as the diagnostic and prognostic performance of predictors. To assure clinical validity, and appropriateness for the country of implementation the algorithm underwent numerous reviews by clinical experts and health authorities from the implementing countries. The digitalization process involved the creation of medAL-creator, a digital platform which allows clinicians without IT programming skills to easily create the algorithms, and medAL-reader the mobile health (mHealth) application used by clinicians during the consultation. Extensive feasibility tests were done with feedback from end-users of multiple countries to improve the clinical algorithm and medAL-reader software. We hope that the development framework used for developing ePOCT+ will help support the development of other CDSAs, and that the open-source medAL-suite will enable others to easily and independently implement them. Further clinical validation studies are underway in Tanzania, Rwanda, Kenya, Senegal, and India.

Prospective cohort study of referred Malawian children and their survival by hypoxaemia and hypoglycaemia status

Objective

To investigate survival in children referred from primary care in Malawi, with a focus on hypoglycaemia and hypoxaemia progression.

Methods

The study involved a prospective cohort of children aged 12 years or under referred from primary health-care facilities in Mchinji district, Malawi in 2019 and 2020. Peripheral blood oxygen saturation (SpO₂) and blood glucose were measured at recruitment and on arrival at a subsequent health-care facility (i.e. four hospitals and 14 primary health-care facilities). Children were followed up 2 weeks after discharge or their last clinical visit. The primary study outcome was the case fatality ratio at 2 weeks. Associations between SpO₂ and blood glucose levels and death were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models and the treatment effect of hospitalization was assessed using propensity score matching.

Findings

Of 826 children recruited, 784 (94.9%) completed follow-up. At presentation, hypoxaemia was moderate (SpO₂: 90-93%) in 13.1% (108/826) and severe (SpO₂: < 90%) in 8.6% (71/826) and hypoglycaemia was moderate (blood glucose: 2.5-4.0 mmol/L) in 9.0% (74/826) and severe (blood glucose: < 2.5 mmol/L) in 2.3% (19/826). The case fatality ratio was 3.7% (29/784) overall but 26.3% (5/19) in severely hypoglycaemic children and 12.7% (9/71) in severely hypoxaemic children. Neither moderate hypoglycaemia nor moderate hypoxaemia was associated with mortality.

Conclusion

Presumptive pre-referral glucose treatment and better management of hypoglycaemia could reduce the high case fatality ratio observed in children with severe hypoglycaemia. The morbidity and mortality burden of severe hypoxaemia was high; ways of improving hypoxaemia identification and management are needed.

Hypoxaemia prevalence and management among children and adults presenting to primary care facilities in Uganda: A prospective cohort study

Hypoxaemia (low blood oxygen) is common among hospitalised patients, increasing the odds of death five-fold and requiring prompt detection and treatment. However, we know little about hypoxaemia prevalence in primary care and the role for pulse oximetry and oxygen therapy. This study assessed the prevalence and management of hypoxaemia at primary care facilities in Uganda. We conducted a cross sectional prevalence study and prospective cohort study of children with hypoxaemia in 30 primary care facilities in Uganda, Feb-Apr 2021. Clinical data collectors used handheld pulse oximeters to measure blood oxygen level (SpO2) of all acutely unwell children, adolescents, and adults. We followed up a cohort of children aged under 15 years with SpO2<93% by phone after 7 days to determine if the patient had attended another health facility, been admitted, or recovered. Primary outcome: proportion of children under 5 years of age with severe hypoxaemia (SpO2<90%). Secondary outcomes: severe (SpO2<90%) and moderate hypoxaemia (SpO2 90-93%) prevalence by age/sex/complaint; number of children with hypoxaemia referred, admitted and recovered. We included 1561 children U5, 935 children 5-14 years, and 3284 adolescents/adults 15+ years. Among children U5, the prevalence of severe hypoxaemia was 1.3% (95% CI 0.9 to 2.1); an additional 4.9% (3.9 to 6.1) had moderate hypoxaemia. Performing pulse oximetry according to World Health Organization guidelines exclusively on children with respiratory complaints would have missed 14% (3/21) of severe hypoxaemia and 11% (6/55) of moderate hypoxaemia. Hypoxaemia prevalence was low among children 5-14 years (0.3% severe, 1.1% moderate) and adolescents/adults 15+ years (0.1% severe, 0.5% moderate). A minority (12/27, 44%) of severely hypoxaemic patients were referred; 3 (12%) received oxygen. We followed 87 children aged under 15 years with SpO2<93%, with complete data for 61 (70%), finding low rates of referral (6/61, 10%), hospital attendance (10/61, 16%), and admission (6/61, 10%) with most (44/61, 72%) fully recovered at day 7. Barriers to referral included caregiver belief it was unnecessary (42/51, 82%), cost (8/51, 16%), and distance or lack of transport (3/51, 6%). Hypoxaemia is common among acutely unwell children under five years of age presenting to Ugandan primary care facilities. Routine pulse oximetry has potential to improve referral, management and clinical outcomes. Effectiveness, acceptability, and feasibility of pulse oximetry and oxygen therapy for primary care should be investigated in implementation trials, including economic analysis from health system and societal perspectives.

The impact of pulse oximetry on diagnosis, management and outcomes of acute febrile illness in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Acute fever is a common presenting symptom in low/middle-income countries (LMICs) and is strongly associated with sepsis. Hypoxaemia predicts disease severity in such patients but is poorly detected by clinical examination. Therefore, including pulse oximetry in the assessment of acutely febrile patients may improve clinical outcomes in LMIC settings.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed studies of any design comparing one group where pulse oximetry was used and at least one group where it was not. The target population was patients of any age presenting with acute febrile illness or associated syndromes in LMICs. Studies were obtained from searching PubMed, EMBASE, CABI Global Health, Global Index Medicus, CINAHL, Cochrane CENTRAL, Web of Science and DARE. Further studies were identified through searches of non-governmental organisation websites, snowballing and input from a Technical Advisory Panel. Outcomes of interest were diagnosis, management and patient outcomes. Study quality was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 tool for Cluster Randomised Trials and Risk of Bias in Non-randomized Studies of Interventions tools, as appropriate.

RESULTS

Ten of 4898 studies were eligible for inclusion. Their small number and heterogeneity prevented formal meta-analysis. All studies were in children, eight only recruited patients with pneumonia, and nine were conducted in Africa or Australasia. Six were at serious risk of bias. There was moderately strong evidence for the utility of pulse oximetry in diagnosing pneumonia and identifying severe disease requiring hospital referral. Pulse oximetry used as part of a quality-assured facility-wide package of interventions may reduce pneumonia mortality, but studies assessing this endpoint were at serious risk of bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Very few studies addressed this important question. In LMICs, pulse oximetry may assist clinicians in diagnosing and managing paediatric pneumonia, but for the greatest impact on patient outcomes should be implemented as part of a health systems approach. The evidence for these conclusions is not widely generalisable and is of poor quality.