Changing trends in reproductive/lifestyle factors in UK women: descriptive study within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS)

Mortality impact, risks, and benefits of general population screening for ovarian cancer: the UKCTOCS randomised controlled trial

Background

Ovarian and tubal cancers are lethal gynaecological cancers, with over 50% of the patients diagnosed at advanced stage.

Trial design

Randomised controlled trial involving 27 primary care trusts adjacent to 13 trial centres based at NHS Trusts in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Methods

Postmenopausal average-risk women, aged 50-74, with intact ovaries and no previous ovarian or current non-ovarian cancer.

Interventions

One of two annual screening strategies: (1) multimodal screening (MMS) using a longitudinal CA125 algorithm with repeat CA125 testing and transvaginal scan (TVS) as second line test (2) ultrasound screening (USS) using TVS alone with repeat scan to confirm any abnormality. The control (C) group had no screening. Follow-up was through linkage to national registries, postal follow-up questionnaires and direct communication with trial centres and participants.

Objective

To assess comprehensively risks and benefits of ovarian cancer screening in the general population.

Outcome

Primary outcome was death due to ovarian or tubal cancer as assigned by an independent outcomes review committee. Secondary outcomes included incidence and stage at diagnosis of ovarian and tubal cancer, compliance, performance characteristics, harms and cost-effectiveness of the two screening strategies and a bioresource for future research.

Randomisation

The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants using computer-generated random numbers to MMS, USS and C groups in a 1:1:2 ratio.

Blinding

Investigators and participants were unblinded and outcomes review committee was masked to randomisation group.

Analyses

Primary analyses were by intention to screen, comparing separately MMS and USS with C using the Versatile test.

Results

1,243,282 women were invited and 205,090 attended for recruitment between April 2001 and September 2005.

Randomised

202,638 women: 50,640 MMS, 50,639 USS and 101,359 C group.

Numbers analysed for primary outcome

202,562 (>99.9%): 50,625 (>99.9%) MMS, 50,623 (>99.9%) USS, and 101,314 (>99.9%) C group.

Outcome

Women in MMS and USS groups underwent 345,570 and 327,775 annual screens between randomisation and 31 December 2011. At median follow-up of 16.3 (IQR 15.1-17.3) years, 2055 women developed ovarian or tubal cancer: 522 (1.0% of 50,625) MMS, 517 (1.0% of 50,623) USS, and 1016 (1.0% of 101314) in C group. Compared to the C group, in the MMS group, the incidence of Stage I/II disease was 39.2% (95% CI 16.1 to 66.9) higher and stage III/IV 10.2% (95% CI -21.3 to 2.4) lower. There was no difference in stage in the USS group. 1206 women died of the disease: 296 (0.6%) MMS, 291 (0.6%) USS, and 619 (0.6%) C group. There was no significant reduction in ovarian and tubal cancer deaths in either MMS (p = 0.580) or USS (p = 0.360) groups compared to the C group. Overall compliance with annual screening episode was 80.8% (345,570/420,047) in the MMS and 78.0% (327,775/420,047) in the USS group. For ovarian and tubal cancers diagnosed within one year of the last test in a screening episode, in the MMS group, the sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values were 83.8% (95% CI 78.7 to 88.1), 99.8% (95% CI 99.8 to 99.9), and 28.8% (95% CI 25.5 to 32.2) and in the USS group, 72.2% (95% CI 65.9 to 78.0), 99.5% (95% CI 99.5 to 99.5), and 9.1% (95% CI 7.8 to 10.5) respectively. The final within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis was not undertaken as there was no mortality reduction. A bioresource (UKCTOCS Longitudinal Women's Cohort) of longitudinal outcome data and over 0.5 million serum samples including serial annual samples in women in the MMS group was established and to date has been used in many new studies, mainly focused on early detection of cancer.

Harms

Both screening tests (venepuncture and TVS) were associated with minor complications with low (8.6/100,000 screens MMS; 18.6/100,000 screens USS) complication rates. Screening itself did not cause anxiety unless more intense repeat testing was required following abnormal screens. In the MMS group, for each screen-detected ovarian or tubal cancer, an additional 2.3 (489 false positives; 212 cancers) women in the MMS group had unnecessary false-positive (benign adnexal pathology or normal adnexa) surgery. Overall, 14 (489/345,572 annual screens) underwent unnecessary surgery per 10,000 screens. In the USS group, for each screen-detected ovarian or tubal cancer, an additional 10 (1630 false positives; 164 cancers) underwent unnecessary false-positive surgery. Overall, 50 (1630/327,775 annual screens) women underwent unnecessary surgery per 10,000 screens.

Conclusions

Population screening for ovarian and tubal cancer for average-risk women using these strategies should not be undertaken. Decreased incidence of Stage III/IV cancers during multimodal screening did not translate to mortality reduction. Researchers should be cautious about using early stage as a surrogate outcome in screening trials. Meanwhile the bioresource provides a unique opportunity to evaluate early cancer detection tests.

Funding

Long-term follow-up UKCTOCS (2015-2020) - National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR HTA grant 16/46/01), Cancer Research UK, and The Eve Appeal. UKCTOCS (2001-2014) - Medical Research Council (MRC) (G9901012/G0801228), Cancer Research UK (C1479/A2884), and the UK Department of Health, with additional support from The Eve Appeal. Researchers at UCL were supported by the NIHR UCL Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre and by MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL core funding (MR_UU_12023).

Identifying potential causal effects of age at menopause: a Mendelian randomization phenome-wide association study

Age at natural menopause (ANM) is associated with a range of health-related traits, including bone health, female reproductive cancers, and cardiometabolic health. Our objective was to conduct a Mendelian randomization phenome-wide association study (MR-pheWAS) of ANM. We conducted a hypothesis-free analysis of the genetic risk score (GRS) for ANM with 18,961 health-related traits among 181,279 women in UK Biobank. We also stratified the GRS according to the involvement of SNPs in DNA damage response. We sought to replicate our findings in independent cohorts. We conducted a negative control MR-pheWAS among men. Among women, we identified potential effects of ANM on 221 traits (1.17% of all traits) at a false discovery rate (P value ≤ 5.83 × 10^-4), and 91 (0.48%) potential effects when using Bonferroni threshold (P value ≤ 2.64 × 10^-6). Our findings included 55 traits directly related to ANM (e.g. hormone replacement therapy, gynaecological conditions and menstrual conditions), and liver function, kidney function, lung function, blood-cell composition, breast cancer and bone and cardiometabolic health. Replication analyses confirmed that younger ANM was associated with HbA1c (adjusted mean difference 0.003 mmol/mol; 95% CI 0.001, 0.006 per year decrease in ANM), breast cancer (adjusted OR 0.96; 95% CI 0.95, 0.98), and bone-mineral density (adjusted mean difference - 0.05; 95% CI - 0.07, - 0.03 for lumbar spine). In men, 30 traits were associated with the GRS at a false discovery rate (P value ≤ 5.49 × 10^-6), and 11 potential effects when using Bonferroni threshold (P value ≤ 2.75 × 10^-6). In conclusion, our results suggest that younger ANM has potential causal effects on a range of health-related traits.

Temporal trends in age at menarche and age at menopause: a population study of 312 656 women in Norway

STUDY QUESTION

Have mean age at menarche or mean age at natural menopause changed from the 1939 birth cohort to the 1964 birth cohort?

SUMMARY ANSWER

We estimated a minor decrease in mean age at menarche and an increase by nearly 3 years in mean age at natural menopause.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

In the Western world, age at menarche decreased across birth cohorts from the early 1800s until the 1950s. Whether mean age at menarche has continued to decrease in birth cohorts after the 1950s remains uncertain. It is also uncertain whether mean age at natural menopause has changed across birth cohorts.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We performed a retrospective population study of 312 656 women who were born in Norway during the years 1936–1964.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

The data were obtained by two self-administered questionnaires from women who participated in the Norwegian breast cancer screening program (BreastScreen Norway) during the years 2006–2014. We used flexible parametric survival models with restricted cubic splines to estimate mean age at menarche, mean age at menopause and mean number of years between menarche and menopause according to the women’s year of birth. The women who were still having menstrual periods contributed with follow-up time until the time of data collection, and the women who had reported surgical removal of the uterus and/or both ovaries prior to natural menopause contributed with follow-up time until the time of surgery.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

The mean age at menarche was 13.42 years (95% CI: 13.40–13.44 years) among women born during 1936–1939, and it was 13.24 years (95% CI: 13.22–13.25 years) among women born during 1960–1964. The mean age at natural menopause increased from 50.31 years (95% CI: 50.25–50.37 years) among women born during 1936–1939 to 52.73 years (95% CI: 52.64–52.82 years) among women born during 1960–1964. The mean number of years between menarche and menopause increased from 36.83 years (95% CI: 36.77–36.89 years) to 40.22 years (95% CI: 40.11–40.34 years).

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Information about age at menarche and age at menopause was based on self-reports.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Late menopause is associated with increased risk of breast cancer but also with increased life expectancy. Thus, higher mean age at menopause may partly explain the increase in breast cancer incidence after menopause and the increase in life expectancy in recent time. Also, a longer interval between menarche and menopause could suggest that the number of years of female fecundity has increased.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This work was funded by the South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority [grant number 2016112 to M.S.G.] and by the Norwegian Cancer Society [grant number 6863294-2015 to E.K.B.]. The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

The Association Between Hysterectomy and Ovarian Cancer Risk: A Population-Based Record-Linkage Study

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have called into question the long-held belief that hysterectomy without oophorectomy protects against ovarian cancer. This population-based longitudinal record-linkage study aimed to explore this relationship, overall and by age at hysterectomy, time period, surgery type, and indication for hysterectomy.

METHODS

We followed the female adult Western Australian population (837 942 women) across a 27-year period using linked electoral, hospital, births, deaths, and cancer records. Surgery dates were determined from hospital records, and ovarian cancer diagnoses (n = 1640) were ascertained from cancer registry records. We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between hysterectomy and ovarian cancer incidence.

RESULTS

Hysterectomy without oophorectomy (n = 78 594) was not associated with risk of invasive ovarian cancer overall (HR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.85 to 1.11) or with the most common serous subtype (HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.89 to 1.23). Estimates did not vary statistically significantly by age at procedure, time period, or surgical approach. However, among women with endometriosis (5.8%) or with fibroids (5.7%), hysterectomy was associated with substantially decreased ovarian cancer risk overall (HR = 0.17, 95% CI = 0.12 to 0.24, and HR = 0.27, 95% CI = 0.20 to 0.36, respectively) and across all subtypes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that for most women, having a hysterectomy with ovarian conservation is not likely to substantially alter their risk of developing ovarian cancer. However, our results, if confirmed, suggest that ovarian cancer risk reduction could be considered as a possible benefit of hysterectomy when making decisions about surgical management of endometriosis or fibroids.

Childhood experiences of parenting and age at menarche, age at menopause and duration of reproductive lifespan: Evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

OBJECTIVES

The parent-child relationship is critical for human development, yet little is known about its association with offsprings' reproductive health outside the context of abuse and neglect. We investigated whether childhood experiences of poor-quality parenting (characterized as decreased parental care and increased parental overprotection) are associated with women's reproductive timing and lifespan.

STUDY DESIGN

Observational study of 2383 women aged 55-89 years in 2007 from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). Multinomial logistic regression models were estimated.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Self-reported ages at menarche and menopause and duration of reproductive lifespan.

RESULTS

Increasing maternal and paternal overprotection were associated with later menarche (≥16 years) after adjustment for age and childhood socioeconomic position (relative risk ratio (RRR) 1.11, 95% CI 1.02-1.21 and 1.11, 95% CI 1.01-1.21, respectively, per unit increase in the predictor). Increasing parental overprotection and decreasing paternal care were associated with earlier menarche (≤10 years). However, these associations were marginally non-significant. Maternal and paternal overprotection were also inversely associated with age at natural menopause after adjustment for age, childhood socioeconomic position and age at menarche (p value for linear trend = 0.041 and 0.004, respectively). Further, increasing paternal overprotection was associated with a shorter reproductive lifespan (≤33 years) (RRR 1.09 (1.01-1.18), per unit increase in the predictor) after adjustment for age and childhood socioeconomic position. Adjustment for additional childhood and adult factors did not explain these associations.

CONCLUSIONS

Women who experienced poor-quality parenting in childhood, especially increased levels of parental overprotection, might be at increased risk of an unfavourable reproductive health profile that is characterized by late or early menarche, premature menopause and a shorter reproductive lifespan.

Association between skirt size and chronic liver disease in post-menopausal women: a prospective cohort study within the United Kingdom Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS)

Background

We investigated the association between self-reported skirt size (SS) and change in SS, and incidence of chronic liver disease (CLD) in a prospective cohort study of women recruited to the UKCTOCS trial.

Methods

Women recruited to UKCTOCS in England without documented CLD self-reported their current UK SS during trial participation and were asked to recall their SS when aged in 20s (via completion of a questionnaire 3–5 years after recruitment). Participants were followed up via electronic health record linkage and hazard ratios (HR) calculated for incident liver-related events (LRE).

Results

Three hundred twenty-two (0.3%) of 94,124 women experienced a first LRE. Compared to SS ≤ 16, rates of LRE were higher in the SS ≥ 18 groups (both when aged in 20s and at questionnaire completion). Event rates were higher if there was no change in SS or an increase in SS, compared to a decrease in SS.

In the models adjusted for potential confounders, HRs for LRE were higher in the groups of women reporting SS ≥ 18 both when aged in 20s (HR = 1.39 (95% CI; 0.87–2.23)) and at questionnaire completion (HR = 1.37 (95% CI; 1.07–1.75)). Compared to a decrease in SS, HRs were higher in the no change (HR = 1.78 (95% CI; 0.95–3.34)) and increase (HR = 1.80 (95% CI; 1.01–3.21)) groups.

Conclusion

CLD is associated with high SS and an increase in SS over time. These data suggest SS can be used in simple public health messages about communicating the risk of liver disease.

Trial Registration

UKCTOCS is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN22488978. Registered 06/04/2000.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5308-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.