Sex differences in survival of patients with type 2 diabetes in primary care (ZODIAC-50)

Five-year cost-effectiveness analysis of the European Fans in Training (EuroFIT) physical activity intervention for men versus no intervention

Objectives

Increasing physical activity reduces the risk of chronic illness including Type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and certain types of cancer. Lifestyle interventions can increase physical activity but few successfully engage men. This study aims to investigate the 5 year cost-effectiveness of EuroFIT, a program to improve physical activity tailored specifically for male football (soccer) fans compared to a no intervention comparison group.

Methods

We developed a Markov cohort model in which the impact of improving physical activity on five chronic health conditions (colorectal cancer, Type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke and depression) and mortality was modelled. We estimated costs from a societal perspective and expressed benefits as quality adjusted life years (QALYs). We obtained data from a 4-country (England, Netherlands, Portugal and Norway) pragmatic randomised controlled trial evaluating EuroFIT, epidemiological and cohort studies, and meta-analyses. We performed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of uncertainty in the model’s parameter values on the cost-effectiveness results. We used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate uncertainty and presented this using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs). We tested the robustness of the base case analysis using five scenario analyses.

Results

Average costs over 5 years per person receiving EuroFIT were €14,663 and per person receiving no intervention €14,598. Mean QALYs over 5 years were 4.05 per person for EuroFIT and 4.04 for no intervention. Thus, the average incremental cost per person receiving EuroFIT was €65 compared to no intervention, while the average QALY gain was 0.01. This resulted in an ICER of €5206 per QALY gained. CEACs show that the probability of EuroFIT being cost-effective compared to no intervention is 0.53, 0.56 and 0.58 at thresholds of €10,000, €22,000 and €34,000 per QALY gained, respectively. When using a time horizon of 10 years, the results suggest that EuroFIT is more effective and less expensive compared to (i.e. dominant over) no intervention with a probability of cost-effectiveness of 0.63 at a threshold of €22,000 per QALY gained.

Conclusions

We conclude the EuroFIT intervention is not cost-effective compared to no intervention over a period of 5 years from a societal perspective, but is more effective and less expensive (i.e. dominant) after 10 years. We thus suggest that EuroFIT can potentially improve public health in a cost-effective manner in the long term.

Predictors of 15-year survival among Australian women with diabetes from age 76-81

AIMS

To assess the impact of diabetes on the survival of older women, adjusted for other all-cause mortality predictors.

METHODS

Data were used from the 1921-26 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, when the women were aged 76-81 years at baseline, with linkage to the National Death Index. Survival curves were plotted to compare the survival of women with no diabetes, incident diabetes and prevalent diabetes over 15 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between diabetes and all-cause mortality risks.

RESULTS

A total of 972 (11.7%) of 8296 eligible women reported either incident, 522 (6.3%) or prevalent, 450 (5.4%) diabetes. The median survival times were 10.1, 11.4 and 12.7 years among women with prevalent, incident and no diabetes, respectively. The risks of death were 30% [HR: 1.30 (95% CI: 1.16-1.45)] and 73% [HR: 1.73 (CI: 1.57-1.92)] higher for women with incident and prevalent diabetes compared to women without diabetes. These associations were sustained after controlling for demographics, body mass index, smoking status, comorbidities and health care use.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed that diabetes is associated with reduced survival probabilities for older women with minimal moderation after adjustment for other predictors. Our findings suggest that diabetes management guidelines for older women need to integrate factors such as comorbidities, smoking and being underweight to reduce the risk of mortality.

How do integrated care programmes work for patients with cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, depression, diabetes and multi-morbidity? A rapid realist review

Background

In previous years, many multi-faceted initiatives have been set up to improve outcomes for people with chronic diseases. Evaluation studies about the (cost-)effectiveness of these integrated care programs showed heterogeneity in outcomes. Hence, it has been suggested to use realist evaluation for the evaluation of integrated care programmes. Thus, our aim was to gain insight into whether and how existing integrated care programmes work for people with cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, depression, diabetes and multi-morbidity, and under what conditions within the Dutch healthcare setting.

Methods

A rapid realist review was conducted to identify the context and mechanisms that are associated with the outcomes of integrated care programmes. From a selection of systematic reviews and meta-analyses and Dutch literature, data on the context, mechanisms and outcomes of integrated care programmes were extracted. The data were analysed by placing the extracted variables in context-mechanism-outcome configurations which showed their interrelatedness. A panel of executives from Dutch care groups assessed the face validity of the context-mechanism-outcome configurations.

Results

Based on the existing literature, context-mechanism-outcome configurations were compiled for all five diseases. Some configurations could be filled with more detail than others, with the configuration of integrated care for people with diabetes being the most complete. Context-mechanism-outcome configurations were completed and confirmed by executives from Dutch care groups.

Conclusion

The configurations together with the identified factors in them reveal the underlying preliminary program theories of integrated care programmes. These theories need to be tested in further research.