Forecasting and predicting intussusception in children younger than 48 months in Suzhou using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model

Association of meteorological factors with paediatric intussusception in Hangzhou: an 8-year retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate the seasonality of paediatric intussusception and the associations between meteorological factors and paediatric intussusception in Hangzhou, as well as aimed to compare the variance in sex and disease type.

DESIGN

An 8-year retrospective study was conducted from January 2014 to December 2021 in the Children's Hospital of Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.

SETTING

This was a single-centre retrospective study review of intussusception cases in a large Children's Hospital in Hangzhou.

PARTICIPANTS

There were 17 674 patients with intussusception in this study.

METHODS

A Spearman correlation analysis and Poisson regression analysis were used to determine the association between weekly intussusception cases and meteorological factors. The seasonality of paediatric intussusception was demonstrated via the t-test and visualised.

RESULT

In January, May and December, there were relatively more intussusception patients. In February, there was a trough in the number of intussusception patients. Both the Spearman correlation analysis and Poisson regression analysis proved that weekly intussusception cases had significant associations with temperature (λ=-0.205, p<0.01; β=-0.080, p<0.01), feels-like temperature (λ=-0.214, p<0.01; β=-0.012, p<0.01), dew (λ=-0.249, p<0.01; β=0.095, p<0.01), humidity (λ=-0.230, p<0.01; β=-0.037, p<0.01), precipitation (λ=-0.148, p<0.01; β=-0.001, p<0.01), windspeed (λ=-0.135, p<0.01; β=0.005, p<0.01), visibility (λ=-0.206, p<0.01; β=-0.066, p<0.01), sea level pressure (λ=0.171, p<0.01; β=-0.004, p<0.01) and a total of 20 of 25 dynamic meteorological factors (p<0.05). These associations reflected gender differences but showed stronger associations in groups that were prone to recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

Paediatric intussusception in Hangzhou showed a seasonal tendency. Additionally, intussusception was significantly associated with certain meteorological factors in all of the cases. These findings suggest that parents and paediatricians should be more vigilant about the occurrence of intussusception in children regarding seasonal change times and climate change times.

Association of meteorological parameters with intussusception in children aged under 2 years: results from a multisite bidirectional surveillance over 7 years in India

OBJECTIVES

The study aimed to document the association between intussusception in Indian children and meteorological parameters and examine regional variations.

DESIGN

A bidirectional (retrospective and prospective) surveillance between July 2010 and September 2017.

SETTING

At 20 hospitals in India, retrospective case record review during July 2010 and March 2016 and prospective surveillance during April 2016 and September 2017 were performed.

PARTICIPANTS

2161 children aged 2-24 months with first intussusception episode were included.

INTERVENTIONS

The monthly mean meteorological parameters (temperature, sunshine, rainfall, humidity and wind speed) for the study sites were collected.

METHODS

The association between monthly intussusception cases and meteorological parameters was examined at pooled, regional and site levels using Pearson (r) and Spearman's rank-order (ρ) correlation, factorial analysis of variance, and Poisson regression or negative binomial regression analyses.

RESULTS

The intussusception cases were highest in summer and lowest in autumn seasons. Pearson correlation analysis showed that temperature (r=0.056; p<0.05), wind speed (r=0.134; p<0.01) and humidity (r=0.075; p<0.01) were associated with monthly intussusception cases. Spearman's rank-order correlation analysis found that temperature (ρ=0.049; p<0.05), wind speed (ρ=0.096; p<0.01) and sunshine (ρ=0.051; p<0.05) were associated with monthly intussusception cases. Poisson regression analysis resulted that monthly intussusception case was associated with rising temperature (North region, p<0.01 and East region, p<0.05), sunshine (North region, p<0.01), humidity (East region, p<0.01) and wind speed (East region, p<0.01). Factorial analysis of variance revealed a significant seasonal difference in intussusception cases for pooled level (p<0.05), 2-6 months age group (p<0.05) and North region (p<0.01). Significant differences in intussusception cases between summer and autumn seasons were observed for pooled (p<0.01), children aged 2-6 months (p<0.05) and 7-12 months (p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Significant correlations between intussusception cases and temperature, humidity, and wind speed were observed at pooled and regional level in India. A peak in summer months was noted, which may be used for prediction, early detection and referral for appropriate management of intussusception.

Predictive study of tuberculosis incidence by time series method and Elman neural network in Kashgar, China

OBJECTIVES

Kashgar, located in Xinjiang, China has a high incidence of tuberculosis (TB) making prevention and control extremely difficult. In addition, there have been very few prediction studies on TB incidence here. We; therefore, considered it a high priority to do prediction analysis of TB incidence in Kashgar, and so provide a scientific reference for eventual prevention and control.

DESIGN

Time series study.

SETTING KASHGAR, CHINA

Kashgar, China.

METHODS

We used a single Box-Jenkins method and a Box-Jenkins and Elman neural network (ElmanNN) hybrid method to do prediction analysis of TB incidence in Kashgar. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to measure the prediction accuracy.

RESULTS

After careful analysis, the single autoregression (AR) (1, 2, 8) model and the AR (1, 2, 8)-ElmanNN (AR-Elman) hybrid model were established, and the optimal neurons value of the AR-Elman hybrid model is 6. In the fitting dataset, the RMSE, MAE and MAPE were 6.15, 4.33 and 0.2858, respectively, for the AR (1, 2, 8) model, and 3.78, 3.38 and 0.1837, respectively, for the AR-Elman hybrid model. In the forecasting dataset, the RMSE, MAE and MAPE were 10.88, 8.75 and 0.2029, respectively, for the AR (1, 2, 8) model, and 8.86, 7.29 and 0.2006, respectively, for the AR-Elman hybrid model.

CONCLUSIONS

Both the single AR (1, 2, 8) model and the AR-Elman model could be used to predict the TB incidence in Kashgar, but the modelling and validation scale-dependent measures (RMSE, MAE and MAPE) in the AR (1, 2, 8) model were inferior to those in the AR-Elman hybrid model, which indicated that the AR-Elman hybrid model was better than the AR (1, 2, 8) model. The Box-Jenkins and ElmanNN hybrid method therefore can be highlighted in predicting the temporal trends of TB incidence in Kashgar, which may act as the potential for far-reaching implications for prevention and control of TB.

Effect of manipulative reduction combined with air enema on intestinal mucosal immune function in children with intussusception

Objective:

To explore the effect of manipulative reduction combined with air enema on intestinal mucosal immune function in children with intussusception.

Methods:

This is a prospective randomized controlled study in which 60 children with primary intussusception admitted to Hebei Children’s Hospital from October 2018 to October 2019 were selected for this study. They were randomly divided into two groups. The 30 patients in the experimental group underwent manipulative reduction and air enema reduction, and 30 patients in the control group underwent only air enema reduction. Pain scores and pressure during enema were recorded and analyzed. Fasting blood of children in the experimental group were drawn to test the serum T lymphocyte subsets CD3+, CD4+, CD8+ levels, B lymphocyte subsets CD19+ level, and NK cell subsets CD56+ levels before reduction. Among them, fasting blood of 28 children with successful reduction were drawn again in the morning after reduction, and the indicators of each immune cell subgroup before and after reduction were analyzed. Two children with unsuccessful reduction were no longer tested for these indicators.

Results:

Twenty-Eight children in the experimental group had successful reduction, and two children with unsuccessful reduction were changed to open surgery (28/30). Twenty five Children in the control group had successful reduction, and five were changed to open surgery (25/30). There was no significant difference in the success rate of reduction between two groups (p>0.05). Close observation for 12~24h after reduction found that none of the children had signs of peritonitis. The pain score and reduction pressure of the observation group were lower than those of the control group, and the difference was statistically significant (p<0.05). The levels of serum CD3+, CD4+, and CD8+ after reduction in the experimental group were significantly higher than before reduction, and the difference was statistically significant (p<0.05). CD19+ level was significantly lower than before reduction, and the difference was statistically significant (p<0.05). There was no significant difference in changes of other indicators.

Conclusions:

Manipulative reduction combined with air enema reduction can relieve pain and air injection pressure during enema, reduce reperfusion injury caused by intestinal ischemia, and protect intestinal mucosal immune function, which is a favored treatment.