The (un)availability of prognostic information in the last days of life: a prospective observational study

The conscious state of the dying patient: An integrative review

OBJECTIVES

The cognitive state of the dying in the last days of life may deteriorate, resulting in a reduced ability to communicate their care needs. Distressing symptoms, physical and existential, may go unrecognized and untreated. The objectives of this integrative review were to systematically interrogate the literature to determine the changing conscious state of dying adults and to identify changes in their care needs.

METHODS

An integrative review protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020160475). The World Health Organization definition of palliative care informed the review. CINAHL, MEDLINE (OVID), Scopus, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, and PubMed were searched from inception to October 2019 using search strategies for each database. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied. Methodological quality was appraised using the Joanna Briggs Institute Checklist for the Case Series appraisal tool. Extracted data were synthesized using a narrative approach.

RESULTS

Of 5,136 papers identified, 11 quantitative case series studies were included. Six themes were identified: conscious state and change over time, awareness, pain, absence of holistic care, the voiceless patient, and signs and symptoms of dying.

SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS

In the last days of life, the physical and conscious state of the dying patient declines, resulting in an inability to express their care needs. Dignity in dying and freedom from pain and suffering are both an imperative and a human right; and unvoiced care needs can result in unnecessary suffering and distress. This review revealed that little is known about how healthcare professionals assess holistic care needs at this vulnerable time. Although much has been written about palliative and end-of-life care, the assessment of care needs when patients are no longer able to voice their own needs has largely been ignored, with little attention from clinical, educational, or research perspectives. This gap in evidence has important implications for the dying and their families.

Specialist palliative medicine physicians and nurses accuracy at predicting imminent death (within 72 hours): a short report

Objectives

Research suggests that clinicians are not very accurate at prognosticating in palliative care. The ‘horizon effect’ suggests that accuracy ought to be better when the survival of patients is shorter. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of specialist palliative care clinicians at identifying which patients are likely to die within 72 hours.

Design

In a secondary data analysis of a prospective observational study, specialist palliative care doctors and nurses (in a hospice and a hospital palliative care team) provided survival predictions (yes/no/uncertain) about which patients would die within 72 hours.

Results

Survival predictions were obtained for 49 patients. A prediction from a nurse was obtained for 37/49 patients. A prediction from a doctor was obtained for 46/49 patients. In total, 23 (47%)/49 patients actually died within 72 hours of assessment. Nurses accurately predicted the outcome in 27 (73%)/37 cases. Doctors accurately predicted the outcome in 30 (65%)/46 cases. When comparing predictions given on the same patients (27 [55%]/49), nurses were slightly better at recognising imminent death than doctors (positive predictive value (the proportion of patients who died when the clinician predicted death)=79% vs 60%, respectively). The difference in c-statistics (nurses 0.82 vs doctors 0.63) was not significant (p=0.13).

Conclusion

Even when patients are in the terminal phase and close to death, clinicians are not very good at predicting how much longer they will survive. Further research is warranted to improve prognostication in this population.