Preventable emergency admissions of older adults: an observational mixed-method study of rates, associative factors and underlying causes in two Dutch hospitals

Factors associated with discharge home in older patients admitted to emergency department observation units: Looking for a predictive scale

BACKGROUND

The selection of patients who are going to be admitted to an emergency department observation unit (EDOU) is essential for the good management of these units, intended fundamentally to avoid unnecessary hospitalization of patients. This is especially important when dealing with older patients. It would be important to know what factors are associated with discharge home and to have a clinical predictive scale that appropriately selects older patients who are going to be admitted to an EDOU.

METHODS

A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted of all patients ≥65 years of age assisted in 48 Spanish Emergency Departments for 7 consecutive days and were admitted to the EDOU. Demographics-functional, vital signs data and initial laboratory results were analyzed to investigate its association with discharge home and develop and validate a prediction model for discharge home from EDOU. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to develop a prediction model, and a scoring system was created.

RESULTS

Among 5457 patients admitted to the EDOU from the emergency room, 2508 (46%) patients were discharged home, and 2949 (54%) were admitted to the hospital. Five variables were strongly associated with discharge home: the absence of fever (adjusted OR: 3.61, 95% CI:1.53-8.54), Glasgow Coma Scale score of 15 points (2.80, 1.63-4.82), absence of tachypnea (2.51, 1.74-3.64) or leukocytosis (2.07, 1.70-2.52) and oxygen saturation >94% (2.00, 1.64-2.43). The final model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.648 (IC95% = 0.627-0.668) in the development cohort and 0.635 (0.614-0.656) in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

There are factors associated with a greater probability of discharge home of older patients admitted to EDOUs. Prediction at the individual level remains elusive, as the best model obtained in this study did not have sufficient validity to be applied in the clinical setting.

Nonspecific stress biomarkers for mortality prediction in older emergency department patients presenting with falls: a prospective multicenter observational study

BACKGROUND

Older patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) after falling are increasingly prevalent. Falls are associated with functional decline and death. Biomarkers predicting short-term mortality might facilitate decisions regarding resource allocation and disposition. D-dimer levels are used to rule out thromboembolic disease, while copeptin and adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) may be used as measures of the patient`s stress level. These nonspecific biomarkers were selected as potential predictors for mortality.

METHODS

Prospective, international, multicenter, cross-sectional observation was performed in two tertiary and two regional hospitals in Germany and Switzerland. Patients aged 65 years or older presenting to the ED after a fall were enrolled. Demographic data, Activities of Daily Living (ADL), and D-dimers were collected upon presentation. Copeptin and MR-proADM levels were determined from frozen samples. Primary outcome was 30-day mortality; and secondary outcomes were mortality at 90, 180, and 365 days.

RESULTS

Five hundred and seventy-two patients were included. Median age was 83 [IQR 78, 89] years, 236 (67.7%) were female. Mortality overall was 3.1% (30 d), 5.4% (90 d), 7.5% (180 d), and 13.8% (365 d), respectively. Non-survivors were older, had a lower ADL index and higher levels of all three biomarkers. Elevated levels of MR-proADM and D-dimer were associated with higher risk of mortality. MR-proADM and D-dimer showed high sensitivity and low negative likelihood ratio regarding short-term mortality, whereas copeptin did not.

CONCLUSION

D-dimer and MR-proADM levels might be useful as prognostic markers in older patients presenting to the ED after a fall, by identifying patients at low risk of short-term mortality.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02244983.

Harnessing temporal patterns in administrative patient data to predict risk of emergency hospital admission

BACKGROUND

Unplanned hospital admissions are associated with worse patient outcomes and cause strain on health systems worldwide. Primary care electronic health records (EHRs) have successfully been used to create prediction models for emergency hospitalisation, but these approaches require a broad range of diagnostic, physiological, and laboratory values. In this study, we aimed to capture temporal patterns of patient activity from EHR data and evaluate their effectiveness in predicting emergency hospital admissions compared with conventional methods.

METHODS

In this retrospective observational study, we used the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank to extract temporal patterns of primary care activity from undifferentiated electronic health record timestamp data for 1·37 million patients in Wales aged 18-80 years with at least one recorded Read code between the years 2016 and 2018. Using Gaussian mixture modelling we grouped patients into distinct temporal clusters, performed a three-stage validation of our approach and calculated the risk of emergency hospital admission for each temporal cluster group. Finally, these temporal clusters were combined with five administrative variables and incorporated into four emergency hospital admission prediction models (logistic regression, naive Bayes, XGBoost, and multilayer perceptron [MLP]) and compared with a more traditional, but data-intensive, modelling technique. The primary outcome was emergency hospital admission as the next health-care event.

FINDINGS

Six distinct temporal cluster patterns of primary care EHR activity were identified, associated with varying risks of future emergency hospital admission risk. These patterns were visually interpretable, repeatable at a population-level, and clinically plausible. The best emergency hospital admission prediction model (MLP) achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0·82 and precision of 0·94 in regional cohorts. In external validation in regional cohorts, similar model performance was observed (AUROC 0·82 and precision 0·92). This model also matched the performance of a more complex model (extended feature model) requiring 33 clinical parameters (AUROC 0·82 vs 0·83; precision 0·94 vs 0·90) for the same task on the same dataset.

INTERPRETATION

We developed a novel machine learning pipeline that extracts interpretable temporal patterns from simple representations of EHR data and can be incorporated into emergency hospital admission predictors. This framework might enable more rapid development of parsimonious clinical prediction models.

FUNDING

UKRI CDT in AI for Healthcare, UKRI Turing AI Fellowship, NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, and Research Capability Funding.

Preventable hospitalizations through ED: does the number of hospital beds matter under the global budget in a single-payer system in Taiwan?

Background

Taiwan implemented global hospital budgeting with a floating-point value, which created a prisoner's dilemma. As a result, hospitals increased service volume, which caused the floating-point value to drop to less than one New Taiwan Dollar (NTD). The recent increase in the number of hospital beds and the call to enhance the floating-point value to one NTD raise concerns about the potential for increased financial burden without adding value to patient care if hospitals expand their bed capacity for volume-based competition. The present study aimed to examine the relationship between the supply of hospital beds and hospitalizations following an emergency department (ED) visit (called ED hospitalizations) by using diabetes-related ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) that are preventable and discretionary as an example.

Methods

The study was a pooled cross-sectional design analyzing 2011-2015 population-based claims data in Taiwan. The dependent variable was a dummy variable representing an ED hospitalization, with a treat-and-leave ED visit as the reference group. The key independent variable is the number of hospital beds per 1,000 populations. Multivariate logistic regression models with and without a clustering function were used for the analyses.

Results

Approximately 59.26% of diabetes-related ACSCs ED visits resulted in ED hospitalizations. The relationship between the supply of hospital beds and ED hospitalizations was statistically significant (OR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.09-1.14; P < 0.001) in the model without clustering but was statistically insignificant in the model with clustering (OR = 1.03; 95% CI: 0.94-1.12; P > 0.05). Several social risk factors were positively associated with the likelihood of ED hospitalizations, such as low income and the percentage of the population without a high school diploma. In contrast, other factors, such as female patients and the Charlson comorbidity index, were negatively associated with the likelihood of ED hospitalizations.

Conclusion

Under hospital global budgeting with a floating-point value mechanism, increases in hospital beds likely motivate hospitals to admit ED patients with preventable and discretionary conditions. Our study emphasizes the urgent need to add value-based incentive mechanisms to the current global budget payment. The value-based incentive mechanisms may encourage providers to focus on quality of patient care by addressing social risk factors rather than engage in volume-based competition, which would improve population health while reducing preventable ED visits and hospitalizations.

Perspectives of older patients on the preventability of their unplanned emergency department return visit within 30 days in the Netherlands: a multicentre mixed methods study

OBJECTIVE

Older adults are prone to unplanned emergency department (ED) return visits (URVs). Knowledge about patient perspectives on the preventability and reasons for these URVs is limited and lacks a representable ED study population. This study aims to determine the proportion of URVs and to explore the preventability and underlying causes as perceived by a wide range of older adults and their caregivers.

DESIGN

A multicentre mixed-methods study.

SETTING

The ED of one academic and one regional hospital in the Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged ≥70 years with a URV within 30 days after the index ED visit, consecutively sampled during a 6-week period.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS

Quantitative data regarding patient and clinical characteristics and perceived preventability of a URV were prospectively collected and analysed using descriptive statistics. Underlying causes of a URV were collected by semistructured interviews with patients and caregivers. Thematic content analysis was used to analyse the interview transcripts.

RESULTS

Out of 1291 patients of 70 years and older, 151 patients had a URV (11.7%). In total, 64 patients were included after informed consent (42.4%). A total of 33 patients (51.5%) found their URV preventable. Perceived causes for a URV were categorised in six themes: (1) suboptimal treatment of health complaints, (2) premature hospital discharge, (3) poor assessment and arrangement of postdischarge needs, (4) patient and caregiver behaviour, (5) lack of advance care planning and insight in treatment options and (6) deficits in general practitioner care.

CONCLUSIONS

Our high rate of preventable URVs (51.5%) perceived by patients and caregivers underscores the importance to reduce URVs among older adults. Perceived causes in this study add other unexplored themes to the existing knowledge and create support for further research and interventional opportunities.

The Views and Experiences of Integrated Care System Commissioners About the Adoption and Implementation of Virtual Wards in England: Qualitative Exploration Study

BACKGROUND

Virtual wards (VWs) are being introduced within the National Health Service (NHS) in England as a new way of delivering care to patients who would otherwise be hospitalized. Using digital technologies, patients can receive acute care, remote monitoring, and treatment in their homes. Integrated care system commissioners are employees involved in the planning of, agreeing to, and monitoring of services within NHS England and have an important role in the adoption and implementation of VWs in clinical practice.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to develop an understanding of the acceptability and feasibility of adopting and implementing VWs in England from integrated care system commissioners' perspectives, including the identification of barriers and facilitators to implementation.

METHODS

Qualitative semistructured interviews were conducted with 20 commissioners employed by NHS England (NHSE) in various geographic regions of England. Thematic analysis was conducted, structured using the framework approach, and informed by the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research. The COREQ (Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research) guidelines were followed.

RESULTS

Four overarching themes were identified reflecting the acceptability and feasibility of key adoption and implementation processes: (1) assessing the need for VWs, (2) coordinating a system approach, (3) agreeing to Program Outcomes: NHSE Versus Organizational Goals, and (4) planning and adapting services. Commissioners expressed the need for system-level change in care provision within the NHS, with VWs perceived as a promising model that could reform patient-centered care. However, there was uncertainty over the financial sustainability of VWs, with questions raised as to whether they would be funded by the closure of hospital beds. There was also uncertainty over the extent to which VWs should be technology-enabled, and the specific ways technology may enhance condition-specific pathways. Differing interpretations of the NHSE instructions between different health care sectors and a lack of clarity in definitions, as well as use of hospital-centric language within national guidance, were considered hindrances to convening a system approach. Furthermore, narrow parameters of success measures in terms of goals and outcomes of VWs, unrealistic timescales for planning and delivery, lack of interoperability of technology and time-consuming procurement procedures, liability concerns, and patient suitability for technology-enabled home-based care were identified as barriers to implementation. Motivated and passionate clinical leads were considered key to successful implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

VWs have the potential to reform patient-centered care in England and were considered a promising approach by commissioners in this study. However, there should be greater clarity over definitions and specifications for technology enablement and evidence provided about how technology can enhance patient care. The use of less hospital-centric language, a greater focus on patient-centered measures of success, and more time allowance to ensure the development of technology-enabled VW services that meet the needs of patients and staff could enhance adoption and implementation.

Exploring client violence during home visits: a qualitative study of perceptions and experiences of Israeli nurses

BACKGROUND

Home care provides an excellent opportunity for personalizing treatment as nurses see patients in their natural environment. Along with its many advantages, the home care environment carries unique risks, as nurses are usually alone, without the protection and security provided by primary care clinics. There are no accurate data in Israel on the scope and characteristics of client violence against nurses during home visits. We conducted a qualitative study to investigate the nature of client violence faced by Israeli nurses during home visits, to gain insights into their perceptions and experiences, and to contribute to the development of effective policies and strategies to combat client violence in the healthcare sector.

METHODS

Twenty-seven female nurses from primary care clinics, who were exposed to client violence during a home visit, were interviewed using a semi-structured interview guide. The interviews were transcribed and analyzed, and categories and themes were extracted.

RESULTS

Most nurses interviewed experienced at least three incidents of client violence, the most common of which was verbal abuse. The nurses perceived that the location of the encounter between the nurse and the patient in the patient's natural surroundings, rather than within the controlled boundaries of a clinic, contributes to the risk of violence. Violence affected the nurses' professional decisions. The nurses reported that their organization had no established guidelines or instructions for safely conducting home visits, they were not provided with protective or security measures for emergencies, nor did they perceive that they had sufficient training to deal with client violence in clients' homes.

CONCLUSIONS

Nurses encounter a range of challenges that make it difficult for them to deal with client violence during home visits, affecting their personal safety and professional decisions. Their ability to manage such situations is shaped by a complex interplay of personal and organizational factors and requires a range of strategies and resources to effectively address them.

Predicting mortality in geriatric patients with fever in the emergency departments: a prospective validation study

OBJECTIVE

Emergency physicians are always faced with the challenge of choosing the appropriate disposition for elderly patients in order to ensure an acceptable care plan and effective use of resources. A clinical decision rule, Geriatric Fever Score (GFS) has been proposed but not validated to help ED physicians with decision-making. This rule employs leukocytosis, severe coma, and thrombocytopenia as predictors of 30-day mortality. Through our study determines the performance of this clinical prediction rule in a prospective study in a setting different from where it was developed.

METHOD AND MATERIALS

In this prospective cohort study in a 1200-bed tertiary care, patients older than 65 years old who visited the ED with fever were enrolled. All elements of the rule were collected and the total score was calculated for each patient. Patients were also categorized as low risk (score 0-1) or high risk (score ≥ 2). Thirty-day follow-up was performed to determine the patient outcome (survival or mortality).

RESULTS

A total of 296 patients were included in our final analysis. The mortality rate was 33.1% for patients with a Score of 0, 42.1% for a score of 1, 57.1% for a score of 2, and 100% for a score of 3. When divided into two risk groups, patients' mortality rates were as follows: low risk group 37.9% and high-risk group 40.5%.

CONCLUSION

Our study showed that elderly patients who present to ED with fever and have a score of 2 or higher on the Geriatric Fever Score are at higher risk of mortality at 30 days.

Diagnostic and prognostic value of cardiac troponins in emergency department patients presenting after a fall: A prospective, multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Emergency department (ED) presentations after a ground-level fall (GLF) are common. Falls were suggested to be another possible presenting feature of a myocardial infarction (MI), as unrecognized MIs are common in older adults. Elevated high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) concentrations could help determine the etiology of a GLF in ED. We investigated the prevalence of both MI and elevated high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and I (hs-cTnI), as well as the diagnostic accuracy of hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI regarding MI, and their prognostic value in older ED patients presenting after a GLF.

METHODS

This was a prospective, international, multicenter, cohort study with a follow-up of up to 1 year. Patients aged 65 years or older presenting to the ED after a GLF were prospectively enrolled. Two outcome assessors independently reviewed all discharge records to ascertain final gold standard diagnoses. Hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI levels were determined from thawed samples for every patient.

RESULTS

In total, 558 patients were included. Median (IQR) age was 83 (77-89) years, and 67.7% were female. Elevated hs-cTnT levels were found in 384 (68.8%) patients, and elevated hs-cTnI levels in 86 (15.4%) patients. Three patients (0.5%) were ascertained the gold standard diagnosis MI. Within 30 days, 18 (3.2%) patients had died. Nonsurvivors had higher hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI levels compared with survivors (hs-cTnT 40 [23-85] ng/L in nonsurvivors and 20 [13-33] ng/L in survivors; hs-cTnI 25 [14-54] ng/L in nonsurvivors and 8 [4-16] ng/L in survivors; p < 0.001 for both).

CONCLUSIONS

A majority of patients (n = 364, 68.8%) presenting to the ED after a fall had elevated hs-cTnT levels and 86 (15.4%) elevated hs-cTnI levels. However, the incidence of MI in these patients was low (n = 3, 0.5%). Our data do not support the opinion that falls may be a common presenting feature of MI. We discourage routine troponin testing in this population. However, hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI were both found to have prognostic properties for mortality prediction up to 1 year.

Patient, caregiver and professional views on preventable emergency admissions of older patients, a multi-method study in three Dutch hospitals

BACKGROUND

Older adults are too often hospitalized from the emergency department (ED) without needing hospital care. Knowledge about rates and causes of these preventable emergency admissions (PEAs) is limited. This study aimed to assess the proportion of PEAs, the level of agreement on perceived preventability between physicians and patients, and to explore their underlying causes as perceived by patients, their relatives, and the admitting physician.

METHODS

A multi-center multi-method study at the ED of one academic and two regional hospitals in the Netherlands was performed. All patients aged > 70 years and hospitalized from the ED were consecutively sampled during a six-week period. Quantitative data regarding patient and clinical characteristics and perceived preventability of the admission were prospectively collected from the electronical medical record and analyzed using descriptive statistics. Agreement on preventability between patient, caregivers and physicians was assessed by using the Cohen's kappa. Underlying causes of a PEA were subsequently collected by semi-structured interviews with patients and caregivers. Physician's perceived causes of a PEA were collected by telephone interviews and by open-ended questions sent by email. Thematic content analysis was used to analyze the interview transcripts and email narratives.

RESULTS

Out of 773 admissions, 56 (7.2%) were deemed preventable by patients or their caregivers. Admitting physicians regarded 75 (9.7%) admissions as preventable. The level of agreement between these two groups was low with a Cohen's kappa score of 0.10 (p = 0.003). Perceived causes for PEAs related to six themes: (1) insufficient support at home, (2) suboptimal care in the community setting, (3) errors in hospital care, (4) time of presentation to ED and availability of resources, (5) delayed help seeking behavior, and (6) errors made by patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings contribute to the existing evidence that a substantial part (almost one out of ten) of the older adults visiting the ED is perceived as unnecessary hospital care by patients, caregivers and health care providers. Findings also provide valuable insight into the causes for PEAs from a patient perspective. Further research is needed to understand why the perspectives of those responsible for hospital admission and those being admitted vary considerably.

The Association of Frailty and Neighborhood Disadvantage with Emergency Department Visits and Hospitalizations in Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification and population management strategies are critical for providing effective and equitable care for the growing population of older adults in the USA. Both frailty and neighborhood disadvantage are constructs that independently identify populations with higher healthcare utilization and risk of adverse outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the joint association of these factors on acute healthcare utilization using two pragmatic measures based on structured data available in the electronic health record (EHR).

DESIGN

In this retrospective observational study, we used EHR data to identify patients aged ≥ 65 years at Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist on January 1, 2019, who were attributed to affiliated Accountable Care Organizations. Frailty was categorized through an EHR-derived electronic Frailty Index (eFI), while neighborhood disadvantage was quantified through linkage to the area deprivation index (ADI). We used a recurrent time-to-event model within a Cox proportional hazards framework to examine the joint association of eFI and ADI categories with healthcare utilization comprising emergency visits, observation stays, and inpatient hospitalizations over one year of follow-up.

KEY RESULTS

We identified a cohort of 47,566 older adults (median age = 73, 60% female, 12% Black). There was an interaction between frailty and area disadvantage (P = 0.023). Each factor was associated with utilization across categories of the other. The magnitude of frailty's association was larger than living in a disadvantaged area. The highest-risk group comprised frail adults living in areas of high disadvantage (HR 3.23, 95% CI 2.99-3.49; P < 0.001). We observed additive effects between frailty and living in areas of mid- (RERI 0.29; 95% CI 0.13-0.45; P < 0.001) and high (RERI 0.62, 95% CI 0.41-0.83; P < 0.001) neighborhood disadvantage.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering both frailty and neighborhood disadvantage may assist healthcare organizations in effectively risk-stratifying vulnerable older adults and informing population management strategies. These constructs can be readily assessed at-scale using routinely collected structured EHR data.

Decreasing hospitalizations through geriatric hotlines: a prospective French multicenter study of people aged 75 and above

BACKGROUND

The Emergency unit of the hospital (Department) (ED) is the fastest and most common way for most French general practitioners (GPs) to respond to the complexity of managing older adults patients with multiple chronic diseases. In 2013, French regional health authorities proposed to set up telephone hotlines to promote interactions between GP clinics and hospitals. The main objective of our study was to analyze whether the hotlines and solutions proposed by the responding geriatrician reduced the number of hospital admissions, and more specifically the number of emergency room admissions.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter observational study from April 2018 to April 2020 at seven French investigative sites. A questionnaire was completed by all hotline physicians after each call.

RESULTS

The study population consisted of 4,137 individuals who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Of the 4,137 phone calls received by the participants, 64.2% (n = 2 657) were requests for advice, and 35.8% (n = 1,480) were requests for emergency hospitalization. Of the 1,480 phone calls for emergency hospitalization, 285 calls resulted in hospital admission in the emergency room (19.3%), and 658 calls in the geriatric short stay (44.5%). Of the 2,657 calls for advice/consultation/delayed hospitalization, 9.7% were also duplicated by emergency hospital admission.

CONCLUSION

This study revealed the value of hotlines in guiding the care of older adults. The results showed the potential effectiveness of hotlines in preventing unnecessary hospital admissions or in identifying cases requiring hospital admission in the emergency room. Hotlines can help improve the care pathway for older adults and pave the way for future progress.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registered under Clinical Trial Number NCT03959475. This study was approved and peer-reviewed by the Ethics Committee for the Protection of Persons of Sud Est V of Grenoble University Hospital Center (registered under 18-CETA-01 No.ID RCB 2018-A00609-46).

Enhancing healthcare at home for older people in rural and regional Australia: A protocol for co-creation to design and implement system change

BACKGROUND

World-wide, health service providers are moving towards innovative models of clinical home-based care services as a key strategy to improve equity of access and quality of care. To optimise existing and new clinical home-based care programs, evidence informed approaches are needed that consider the complexity of the health care system across different contexts.

METHODS

We present a protocol for working with health services and their partners to perform rapid identification, prioritisation, and co-design of content-appropriate strategies to optimise the delivery of healthcare at home for older people in rural and regional areas. The protocol combines Systems Thinking and Implementation Science using a Consensus Mapping and Co-design (CMC) process delivered over five workshops.

DISCUSSION

The protocol will be implemented with rural and regional healthcare providers to identify digital and non-digital solutions that have the potential to inform models of service delivery, improve patient experience, and optimise health outcomes. The combination of system and implementation science is a unique approach for optimising healthcare at home for older populations, especially in the rural context where need is high. This is the first protocol to integrate the use of systems and implementation science into one process and articulating these methods will help with replicating this in future practice. Results of the design phase will translate into practice through standard health service planning methods to enhance implementation and sustainability. The delivery of the protocol will include building capacity of health service workers to embed the design, implementation, and evaluation approach into normal practice. This protocol forms part of the DELIVER (Delivering Enhanced heaLthcare at home through optImising Virtual tools for oldEr people in Rural and regional Australia) Project. Funded by Australia's Medical Research Future Fund, DELIVER involves a collaboration with public health services of Western Victoria, Australia.

A causal loop diagram of older persons' emergency department visits and interactions of its contributing factors: a group model building approach

PURPOSE

Understanding the etiology of older persons' emergency department (ED) visits is highly needed. Many contributing factors have been identified, however, the role their interactions play remains unclear. Causal loop diagrams (CLDs), as conceptual models, can visualize these interactions and therefore may elucidate their role. This study aimed to better understand why people older than 65 years of age visit the ED in Amsterdam by capturing the interactions of contributing factors as perceived by an expert group in a CLD through group model building (GMB).

METHODS

Six qualitative online focus group like sessions, known as GMB, were conducted with a purposefully recruited interdisciplinary expert group of nine that resulted in a CLD that depicted their shared view.

RESULTS

The CLD included four direct contributing factors, 29 underlying factors, 66 relations between factors and 18 feedback loops. The direct factors included, 'acute event', 'frailty', 'functioning of the healthcare professional' and 'availability of alternatives for the ED'. All direct factors showed direct as well as indirect contribution to older persons' ED visits in the CLD through interaction.

CONCLUSION

Functioning of the healthcare professional and availability of alternatives for the ED were considered pivotal factors, together with frailty and acute event. These factors, as well as many underlying factors, showed extensive interaction in the CLD, thereby contributing directly and indirectly to older persons' ED visits. This study helps to better understand the etiology of older persons' ED visits and in specific the way contributing factors interact. Furthermore, its CLD can help to find solutions for the increasing numbers of older adults in the ED.

Effect of ED-based transitional care interventions by healthcare professionals providing transitional care in the emergency department on clinical, process and service use outcomes: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

Suboptimal transitional care (ie, needs assessment and coordination of follow-up care) in the emergency department (ED) is an important cause of ED revisits and hospital admissions and may potentially harm patients, especially frail older adults. We aimed to systematically review the effect of ED-based interventions by health professionals who are dedicated to providing transitional care to older adults.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

MEASUREMENTS

We searched five biomedical databases for published (quasi)experimental studies evaluating the effects of health professionals in the ED dedicated to providing transitional care to older ED patients on clinical, process and/or service use outcomes. Reviewers screened studies for relevance and assessed methodological quality with published criteria (Robins-1 and the Cochrane risk of bias tool). Data were synthesised around study and intervention characteristics and outcomes of interest.

RESULTS

From the 6561 references initially extracted from the databases, 12 studies were eligible for inclusion. Two types of interventions were identified, namely, individual needs assessment of ED patients (8 studies; 75%) and discharge planning and coordination of services (4 studies; 25%). Structured individual needs assessment was associated with a significant decrease in hospital admissions, hospital readmissions and ED revisits. Individualised discharge plans from the ED were associated with a significant decrease in ED revisits and hospital readmission. The overall methodological quality of the included studies was relatively low.

CONCLUSIONS

Comprehensive assessment of patient needs and ED discharge planning and coordination of services by health professionals interested in transitional care can help optimise the transition of care for older ED patients and reduce the risk of costly and potentially harmful (re)admissions for this population. However, more robust research is needed on the effectiveness of these interventions aiming to improve clinical, process and service use outcomes.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021237345.

Ability of combined soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor to predict preventable emergency attendance in older patients in Japan: a prospective pilot study

Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is a strong and nonspecific inflammatory biomarker that reflects various immunologic reactions, organ damage, and risk of mortality in the general population. Although prior research in acute medical patients showed that an elevation in suPAR is related to intensive care unit admission and risk of readmission and mortality, no studies have focused on the predictive value of suPAR for preventable emergency attendance (PEA). This study aims to evaluate the predictive value of suPAR, which consists of a combination of white blood cell count (WBC), C-reactive protein (CRP), and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), for PEA in older patients (>65 years) without trauma who presented to the emergency department (ED). This single-center prospective pilot study was conducted in the ED of the Association of EISEIKAI Medical and Healthcare Corporation Minamitama Hospital, in Hachiouji City, Tokyo, Japan, from September 16, 2020, to June 21, 2022. The study included all patients without trauma aged 65 years or older who were living in their home or a facility and presented to the ED when medical professionals decided an emergency consultation was required. Discrimination was assessed by plotting the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculating the area under the ROC curve (AUC). During the study period, 49 eligible older patients were included, and thirteen (26.5%) PEA cases were detected. The median suPAR was significantly lower in the PEA group than in the non-PEA group (p < 0.05). For suPAR, the AUC for the prediction of PEA was 0.678 (95% CI 0.499-0.842, p < 0.05), and there was no significant difference from other variables as follows: 0.801 (95% CI 0.673-0.906, p < 0.001) for WBC, 0.833 (95% CI 0.717-0.934, p < 0.001) for CRP, and 0.693 (95% CI 0.495-0.862, p < 0.05) for NEWS. Furthermore, the AUC for predicting PEA was 0.867 (95% CI 0.741-0.959, p < 0.001) for suPAR + WBC + CRP + NEWS, which was significantly higher than that of the original suPAR (p < 0.01). The cutoff values, sensitivity, specificity, and odds ratio of suPAR and suPAR + WBC + CRP + NEWS were 7.5 and 22.88, 80.6% and 83.3%, 53.8% and 76.9%, and 4.83 and 16.67, respectively. This study has several limitations. First, this was pilot study, and we included a small number of older patients. Second, the COVID-19 pandemic occurred during the study period, so that there may be selection bias in the study population. Third, our hospital is a secondary emergency medical institution, and as such, we did not treat very fatal cases, which could be another cause of selection bias. Our single-center study has demonstrated the moderate utility of the combined suPAR as a triage tool for predicting PEA in older patients without trauma receiving home medical care. Before introducing suPAR to the prehospital setting, evidence from multicenter studies is needed.

Reasons for acute referrals to hospital from general practitioners and out-of-hours doctors in Norway: a registry-based observational study

Background

General practitioners (GPs) and out-of-hours (OOH) doctors are gatekeepers to acute hospital admissions in many healthcare systems. The aim of the present study was to investigate the whole range of reasons for acute referrals to somatic hospitals from GPs and OOH doctors and referral rates for the most common reasons. We wanted to explore the relationship between some common referral diagnoses and the discharge diagnosis, and associations with patient’s gender, age, and GP or OOH doctor referral.

Methods

A registry-based study was performed by linking national data from primary care in the physicians’ claims database with hospital services data in the Norwegian Patient Registry (NPR). The referring GP or OOH doctor was defined as the physician who had sent a claim for the patient within 24 h prior to an acute hospital stay. The reason for referral was defined as the ICPC-2 diagnosis used in the claim; the discharge diagnoses (ICD-10) came from NPR.

Results

Of all 265,518 acute hospital referrals from GPs or OOH doctors in 2017, GPs accounted for 43% and OOH doctors 57%. The overall referral rate per contact was 0.01 from GPs and 0.11 from OOH doctors, with large variations by referral diagnosis. Abdominal pain (D01) (8%) and chest pain (A11) (5%) were the most frequent referral diagnoses. For abdominal pain and chest pain referrals the most frequent discharge diagnosis was the corresponding ICD-10 symptom diagnosis, whereas for pneumonia-, appendicitis-, acute myocardial infarction- and stroke referrals the corresponding disease diagnosis was most frequent. Women referred with chest pain were less likely to be discharged with ischemic heart disease than men.

Conclusions

The reasons for acute referral to somatic hospitals from GPs and OOH doctors comprise a wide range of reasons, and the referral rates vary according to the severity of the condition and the different nature between GP and OOH services. Referral rates for OOH contacts were much higher than for GP contacts. Patient age, gender and referring service influence the relationship between referral and discharge diagnosis.

Barriers to Discharge in Geriatric Long Staying Inpatient and Emergency Department Admissions: A Descriptive Study

Background: This study describes long length of stay during emergency department (ED) visits and hospital admissions, barriers to discharge, and discharge solutions for geriatric patients. Methods: We conducted a retrospective medical record review of a random sample of 150 ED patients and 150 inpatients with long length of stay (LOS) encounters. Cohorts were characterized by demographics, social determinants of health (e.g., health insurance, housing), medical comorbidities at admission, discharge care coordination, and final disposition. Results: In the ED, the primary barrier to discharge was inadequate inpatient bed availability (63%). In the inpatient setting, barriers to discharge were predominantly due to a demonstrated medical requirement for continued hospitalization (55%), followed by difficulty with coordinating discharge to a skilled nursing facility or rehabilitation center (22%). Discussion: Among long LOS ED patients, discharge delays were often the result of unavailable inpatient beds and services. Reducing the LOS for ED patients may require further investigation as to which hospital services are most frequently utilized by geriatric patients and structuring inpatient bed allocation to prevent extended patient boarding in the ED. Reducing long inpatient LOS may require early identification of high-risk patients and strengthening of relationships with community-based services.