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Vicco A, McCormack CP, Pedrique B, Amuasi JH, Awuah AAA, Obirikorang C, Struck NS, Lorenz E, May J, Ribeiro I, Malavige GN, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I. A simulation-based method to inform serosurvey design for estimating the force of infection using existing blood samples. PLoS Comput Biol 2023; 19:e1011666. [PMID: 38011203 PMCID: PMC10727435 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011666] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2023] [Revised: 12/18/2023] [Accepted: 11/06/2023] [Indexed: 11/29/2023] Open
Abstract
The extent to which dengue virus has been circulating globally and especially in Africa is largely unknown. Testing available blood samples from previous cross-sectional serological surveys offers a convenient strategy to investigate past dengue infections, as such serosurveys provide the ideal data to reconstruct the age-dependent immunity profile of the population and to estimate the average per-capita annual risk of infection: the force of infection (FOI), which is a fundamental measure of transmission intensity. In this study, we present a novel methodological approach to inform the size and age distribution of blood samples to test when samples are acquired from previous surveys. The method was used to inform SERODEN, a dengue seroprevalence survey which is currently being conducted in Ghana among other countries utilizing samples previously collected for a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey. The method described in this paper can be employed to determine sample sizes and testing strategies for different diseases and transmission settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Vicco
- Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padua, Padua, Italy
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Clare P. McCormack
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Belen Pedrique
- Drugs for Neglected Diseases initiative, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - John H. Amuasi
- Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
- Global Health and Infectious Diseases Research Group, Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kumasi, Ghana
- Research Group Global One Health, Department of Implementation Research, Bernhard Nocht Institute of Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
- Division for Tropical Medicine, Department of Medicine, University Medical Centre Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Anthony Afum-Adjei Awuah
- Global Health and Infectious Diseases Research Group, Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kumasi, Ghana
- Research Group Global One Health, Department of Implementation Research, Bernhard Nocht Institute of Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
- Department of Molecular Medicine, School of Medicine and Dentistry, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Christian Obirikorang
- Global Health and Infectious Diseases Research Group, Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kumasi, Ghana
- Research Group Global One Health, Department of Implementation Research, Bernhard Nocht Institute of Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
- Department of Molecular Medicine, School of Medicine and Dentistry, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Nicole S. Struck
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
- German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), partner site Hamburg-Borstel-Lübeck-Riems, Germany
| | - Eva Lorenz
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
- German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), partner site Hamburg-Borstel-Lübeck-Riems, Germany
- Institute of Medical Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, University Medical Centre of the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Mainz, Germany
| | - Jürgen May
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
- German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), partner site Hamburg-Borstel-Lübeck-Riems, Germany
- Department of Tropical Medicine I, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE), Hamburg, Germany
| | - Isabela Ribeiro
- Drugs for Neglected Diseases initiative, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Christl A. Donnelly
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Ilaria Dorigatti
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
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Struck NS, Lorenz E, Deschermeier C, Eibach D, Kettenbeil J, Loag W, Brieger SA, Ginsbach AM, Obirikorang C, Maiga-Ascofare O, Sarkodie YA, Boham EEA, Adu EA, Asare G, Amoako-Adusei A, Yawson A, Boakye AO, Deke J, Almoustapha NS, Adu-Amoah L, Duah IK, Ouedraogo TA, Boudo V, Rushton B, Ehmen C, Fusco D, Gunga L, Benke D, Höppner Y, Rasolojaona ZT, Rasamoelina T, Rakotoarivelo RA, Rakotozandrindrainy R, Coulibaly B, Sié A, Awuah AAA, Amuasi JH, Souares A, May J. High seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Burkina-Faso, Ghana and Madagascar in 2021: a population-based study. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:1676. [PMID: 36064368 PMCID: PMC9441841 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13918-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2022] [Accepted: 07/07/2022] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The current COVID-19 pandemic affects the entire world population and has serious health, economic and social consequences. Assessing the prevalence of COVID-19 through population-based serological surveys is essential to monitor the progression of the epidemic, especially in African countries where the extent of SARS-CoV-2 spread remains unclear. METHODS A two-stage cluster population-based SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence survey was conducted in Bobo-Dioulasso and in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, Fianarantsoa, Madagascar and Kumasi, Ghana between February and June 2021. IgG seropositivity was determined in 2,163 households with a specificity improved SARS-CoV-2 Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay. Population seroprevalence was evaluated using a Bayesian logistic regression model that accounted for test performance and age, sex and neighbourhood of the participants. RESULTS Seroprevalence adjusted for test performance and population characteristics were 55.7% [95% Credible Interval (CrI) 49·0; 62·8] in Bobo-Dioulasso, 37·4% [95% CrI 31·3; 43·5] in Ouagadougou, 41·5% [95% CrI 36·5; 47·2] in Fianarantsoa, and 41·2% [95% CrI 34·5; 49·0] in Kumasi. Within the study population, less than 6% of participants performed a test for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection since the onset of the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS High exposure to SARS-CoV-2 was found in the surveyed regions albeit below the herd immunity threshold and with a low rate of previous testing for acute infections. Despite the high seroprevalence in our study population, the duration of protection from naturally acquired immunity remains unclear and new virus variants continue to emerge. This highlights the importance of vaccine deployment and continued preventive measures to protect the population at risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicole S Struck
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Insitute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany. .,German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Hamburg-Borstel-Lübeck-Riems, Heidelberg, Germany.
| | - Eva Lorenz
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Insitute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany.,German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Hamburg-Borstel-Lübeck-Riems, Heidelberg, Germany.,Institute of Medical Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, University Medical Centre of the Johannes Gutenberg, University Mainz, Mainz, Germany
| | - Christina Deschermeier
- Diagnostics Development Laboratory, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Daniel Eibach
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Insitute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany.,German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Hamburg-Borstel-Lübeck-Riems, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Jenny Kettenbeil
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Insitute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Wibke Loag
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Insitute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Steven A Brieger
- University of Sussex Business School, University of Sussex, Falmer, UK
| | - Anna M Ginsbach
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Insitute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Christian Obirikorang
- Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana.,Department of Molecular Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Oumou Maiga-Ascofare
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Insitute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany.,Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Yaw Adu Sarkodie
- Department of Clinical Microbiology, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Eric Ebenezer Amprofi Boham
- Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana.,Department of Molecular Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Evans Asamoah Adu
- Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Gracelyn Asare
- Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Amos Amoako-Adusei
- Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Alfred Yawson
- Department of Community Health, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana
| | - Alexander Owusu Boakye
- Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana.,Department of Molecular Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - James Deke
- Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana.,Department of Clinical Microbiology, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Nana Safi Almoustapha
- Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Louis Adu-Amoah
- Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana.,Department of Molecular Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Ibrahim Kwaku Duah
- Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | | | - Valentin Boudo
- Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna, Nouna, Burkina Faso
| | - Ben Rushton
- Diagnostics Development Laboratory, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Christa Ehmen
- Diagnostics Development Laboratory, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Daniela Fusco
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Insitute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany.,German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Hamburg-Borstel-Lübeck-Riems, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Leonard Gunga
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Insitute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Dominik Benke
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Insitute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Yannick Höppner
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Insitute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
| | | | | | | | | | - Boubacar Coulibaly
- German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Hamburg-Borstel-Lübeck-Riems, Heidelberg, Germany.,Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna, Nouna, Burkina Faso
| | - Ali Sié
- German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Hamburg-Borstel-Lübeck-Riems, Heidelberg, Germany.,Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna, Nouna, Burkina Faso.,Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Anthony Afum-Adjei Awuah
- Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana.,Department of Molecular Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - John H Amuasi
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Insitute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany.,Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana.,Department of Global and International Health, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Aurélia Souares
- German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Hamburg-Borstel-Lübeck-Riems, Heidelberg, Germany.,Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Jürgen May
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Insitute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany.,German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Hamburg-Borstel-Lübeck-Riems, Heidelberg, Germany.,Department of Tropical Medicine I, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE), Hamburg, Germany
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