Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool prognostic value in older hospitalised patients: a prospective multicentre study

Could it have been predicted? A retrospective analysis of the last year of life for people who died whilst in an intermediate care centre

Objectives

Intermediate care centres (ICCs) exist in the UK to bridge between acute hospital and home for those with rehabilitation needs. A national study shows 25% of ICC in-patients died within a year of admission. High quality end-of-life care includes early conversations with a person and their loved ones about what matters to them; timely identification of those who are likely to be nearing the end of their life is key.

Methods

This retrospective quantitative review of 98 patient notes reviewed deaths in one NHS trust, comparing 50 deaths in the acute hospital and 48 in the ICC. Data included frailty score, previous hospital admissions, specialist palliative input and conversations between professionals, patients and their loved ones. Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool (SPICT) scores were used to identify those likely to have a poor prognosis.

Results

Results showed statistically significant differences between the groups. The ICC cohort were older with higher clinical frailty scores. They were less likely to have previous hospital admissions but more likely to have poor prognostic features on final admission. Despite this, the possibility of deterioration was discussed them less frequently than the acute hospital cohort, and fewer saw the Palliative care team.

Conclusion

This data suggests support is needed in ICCs to recognise those likely to be nearing end-of-life. One challenge is patients are more likely to be seen as 'well' in a rehabilitation focused environment. This paper suggests a 'proactive approach' trial using SPICT for ongoing assessment of ICC in-patients supporting identification of a deteriorating person and avoid missed opportunities for key conversations.

Impact of a prospective feedback loop aimed at reducing non-beneficial treatments in older people admitted to hospital and potentially nearing the end of life. A cluster stepped-wedge randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

To investigate if a prospective feedback loop that flags older patients at risk of death can reduce non-beneficial treatment at end of life.

DESIGN

Prospective stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial with usual care and intervention phases.

SETTING

Three large tertiary public hospitals in south-east Queensland, Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

14 clinical teams were recruited across the three hospitals. Teams were recruited based on a consistent history of admitting patients aged 75+ years, and needed a nominated lead specialist consultant. Under the care of these teams, there were 4,268 patients (median age 84 years) who were potentially near the end of life and flagged at risk of non-beneficial treatment.

INTERVENTION

The intervention notified clinicians of patients under their care determined as at-risk of non-beneficial treatment. There were two notification flags: a real-time notification and an email sent to clinicians about the at-risk patients at the end of each screening day. The nudge intervention ran for 16-35 weeks across the three hospitals.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with one or more intensive care unit (ICU) admissions. The secondary outcomes examined times from patients being flagged at-risk.

RESULTS

There was no improvement in the primary outcome of reduced ICU admissions (mean probability difference [intervention minus usual care] = -0.01, 95% confidence interval -0.08 to 0.01). There were no differences for the times to death, discharge, or medical emergency call. There was a reduction in the probability of re-admission to hospital during the intervention phase (mean probability difference -0.08, 95% confidence interval -0.13 to -0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

This nudge intervention was not sufficient to reduce the trial's non-beneficial treatment outcomes in older hospital patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australia New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry, ACTRN12619000675123 (registered 6 May 2019).

Validation of a Supportive and Palliative Care Indicator Tool Among Patients Hospitalized Due to Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Palliative care, including symptom alleviation and advance-care planning, is relevant for patients with heart failure (HF). The Supportive and Palliative Care Indicator Tool (SPICT) is a tool for identifying patients who may benefit from palliative-care assistance but has not been validated in patients hospitalized due to HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Clinical backgrounds, symptom burdens and outcomes were evaluated using the SPICT as assessed on admission in consecutive hospitalized patients with HF. SPICT-positive was defined when 2 or more general indicators and a New York Heart Association class ≥ III were present. Of 601 patients hospitalized due to HF (mean age: 79 ± 12 years; male, 314 [52%]; and mean left ventricular ejection fraction: 44 ± 18%), 100 (17%) patients were SPICT-positive. SPICT-positive patients were older (85 ± 9 vs 78 ± 12 years; P < 0.001) and had higher clinical frailty scales (6 ± 1 vs 4 ± 1 points; P < 0.001), whereas symptom burdens assessed by the Integrated Palliative care Outcome Scale were not different (17 [13, 28] vs 20 [11, 26] points; P = 0.97) when compared with patients who were SPICT-negative. During the median follow-up period of 518 days, 178 patients (30%) died. Being SPICT-positive was independently associated with higher all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 3.49, 95% confidence interval: 2.41-5.05; P < 0.001) after adjusting for age, sex, New York Heart Association class IV, Get-With-The-Guideline risk score, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide levels, and left ventricular ejection fractions.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients admitted for HF, being SPICT-positive was significantly associated with higher all-cause mortality rates, suggesting the utility of the SPICT as an indicator to initiate advance-care planning for end-of-life care among patients hospitalized due to HF.

Implementation and evaluation of the Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool (SPICT™) in acute care

OBJECTIVES

The Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool (SPICT™) has been used to identify patients at risk of deteriorating and dying within 1 year. Early identification and integration of advance care planning (ACP) provides the opportunity for a better quality of life for patients. The aims of this study were to identify the number of patients who were SPICT™ positive; their mortality rates at 6 and 12 months of the SPICT™ assessment; and level of adherence to ACP documentation.

METHODS

A retrospective audit of the Supportive and Palliative Care database was conducted at an acute aged care precinct in a major metropolitan tertiary referral hospital in New South Wales, Australia. Data comprising demographics, clinical conditions, SPICT™ positivity and compliance with ACP documentation were collected. SPICT™-positive patients and mortality were tracked at 6 and 12 months, respectively.

RESULTS

Data from 153 patients were collected. The mean age of the patients was 84.1 (±7.8) years, and the length of hospital stay was 10 (±24.7) (range 1-269) days. Approximately 37% were from residential care, and 80% had family deciding on their care. About 15% died during hospitalisation, and 48% were discharged to a care facility. The ACP documentation showed various levels of completion. Mortality rates at 6 and 12 months were 36% and 39%, respectively. Most patients (99%) were SPICT™-positive, with indicators correlating with higher mortality rates at both follow-ups.

CONCLUSIONS

The study emphasises the critical need for addressing ACP and palliative care among older patients with life-limiting conditions. It underscores the importance of timely discussions, documentation, and cessation of futile interventions.

Screening for Palliative Care Need in Oncology: Validation of Patient-Reported Outcome Measures

CONTEXT

Leading oncology societies recommend monitoring symptoms and support needs through patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), but their use for assessing specialist palliative care (SPC) need has not yet been explored. Research on SPC integration has focused on staff-assessed screening tools, which are time-consuming.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess the diagnostic validity of the Integrated Palliative Outcome Scale (IPOS) and NCCN Distress Thermometer (NCCN DT) in identifying need for SPC in patients with incurable cancer.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional study, patients with incurable cancer (prognosis <2 years) completed PROMs. In an independent process, the palliative care consultation service (PCCS) assessed the need for SPC in each patient through multiprofessional case review, and this was used as the reference standard. ROC analyses were employed to determine diagnostic validity.

RESULTS

Of the 208 participants, 71 (34.1 %) were classified as having SPC need by the PCCS. Aiming for a minimum sensitivity of 80%, a cut-off of ≥2 items with high/very high burden in the IPOS resulted in a 90.2% sensitivity (specificity = 50; AUC = 0.791; CI 95%= 0.724-0.858). A cut-off of ≥5 resulted in a sensitivity of 80 % for NCCN DT (specificity = 49.5 %; AUC = 0.687; CI 95% = 0.596-0.777).

CONCLUSION

PROMs are useful for identifying SPC need in cancer patients. Their implementation might facilitate timely integration of SPC. Future research should focus on an integrated assessment approach with PROMs that combines the requirements of the different specialties to save patient and staff resources.

Will-to-Live and Self-Rated Health in Older Hospitalized Patients Are Not Predictive for Short-Term Mortality

Background: Self-assessed will-to-live and self-rated health are associated with long-term survival in community-dwelling older persons but have not been examined in frailer older patients in relation to short-term prognosis. The aim was to explore whether will-to-live and self-rated health are predictive for six-month mortality and can guide ceiling of treatment decisions in hospitalized patients in an acute geriatric ward. We included the Surprise Question as reference, being a well-established clinical tool for short-term prognostication. Methods: This multicentric prospective study included patients of 75 years and older admitted at acute geriatric wards of two Belgian hospitals. Will-to-live and self-rated health were scored on a Likert scale (0-5, 0-4) and assessed by junior geriatricians. The senior geriatricians answered the Surprise Question for clinical judgment of prognosis. Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to determine diagnostic accuracy. For time-dependent analysis, Cox regression was performed with adjustment for age and gender. Results: Of 93 included patients in the study, 69 were still alive after six months and 24 died, resulting in a six-month mortality of 26%. The mean age was 86 years (range 75-100), 67% of the patients were women. Median will-to-live and self-rated health were 3 (moderate and good). Both will-to-live and self-rated health were not predictive for six-month mortality (area under the ROC curve [AUC] 0.496, p = 0.951 for will-to-live; 0.447, p = 0.442 for self-rated health) as opposed to Surprise Question (AUC 0.793, p < 0.001). After correction for sex and age, the hazard ratio of six-month mortality was 0.92 for will-to-live (p = 0.667), 0.86 for self-rated health (p = 0.548), and 10.28 for Surprise Question (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Will-to-live and self-rated health are not predictive for six-month mortality in patients admitted to the acute geriatric ward, unlike prognostic tools such as Surprise Question. Clinical Trial Registration Number: B670202100792.

Conservative kidney management and kidney supportive care: core components of integrated care for people with kidney failure

Integrated kidney care requires synergistic linkage between preventative care for people at risk for chronic kidney disease and health services providing care for people with kidney disease, ensuring holistic and coordinated care as people transition between acute and chronic kidney disease and the 3 modalities of kidney failure management: conservative kidney management, transplantation, and dialysis. People with kidney failure have many supportive care needs throughout their illness, regardless of treatment modality. Kidney supportive care is therefore a vital part of this integrated framework, but is nonexistent, poorly developed, and/or poorly integrated with kidney care in many settings, especially in low- and middle-income countries. To address this, the International Society of Nephrology has (i) coordinated the development of consensus definitions of conservative kidney management and kidney supportive care to promote international understanding and awareness of these active treatments; and (ii) identified key considerations for the development and expansion of conservative kidney management and kidney supportive care programs, especially in low resource settings, where access to kidney replacement therapy is restricted or not available. This article presents the definitions for conservative kidney management and kidney supportive care; describes their core components with some illustrative examples to highlight key points; and describes some of the additional considerations for delivering conservative kidney management and kidney supportive care in low resource settings.

Screening instruments for early identification of unmet palliative care needs: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The early detection of individuals who require palliative care is essential for the timely initiation of palliative care services. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to (1) Identify the screening instruments used by health professionals to promote early identification of patients who may benefit from palliative care; and (2) Assess the psychometric properties and clinical performance of the instruments.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Scopus, CNKI and Wanfang from inception to May 2023. We used the COnsensus-based Standards for the Selection of Health Measurement INstruments to assess the methodological quality of the development process for the instruments. The clinical performance of the instruments was assessed by narrative summary or meta-analysis. Subgroup analyses were conducted where necessary. The quality of included studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and the Cochrane Collaboration's risk of bias assessment tool.

RESULTS

We included 31 studies that involved seven instruments. Thirteen studies reported the development and validation process of these instruments and 18 studies related to assessment of clinical performance of these instruments. The content validity of the instruments was doubtful or inadequate because of very low to moderate quality evidence. The pooled sensitivity (Se) ranged from 60.0% to 73.8%, with high heterogeneity (I2 of 88.15% to 99.36%). The pooled specificity (Sp) ranges from 70.4% to 90.2%, with high heterogeneity (I2 of 96.81% to 99.94%). The Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool (SPICT) had better performance in hospitals than in general practice settings (Se=79.8% vs 45.3%, p=0.004; Sp=59.1% vs 97.0%, p=0.000).

CONCLUSION

The clinical performance of existing instruments in identifying patients with palliative care needs early ranged from poor to reasonable. The SPICT is used most commonly, has better clinical performance than other instruments but performs better in hospital settings than in general practice settings.

Palliative Care for the Elderly With Heart Diseases in Tertiary Health care: A Concept Analysis

BACKGROUND

The increasing incidence of heart failure (HF) in the elderly leads to increased mortality, hospitalization, length of hospital stay, and health care costs. Older adults often face multiple drug treatments, comorbidities, frailty, and cognitive problems, which require early palliative care. However, these patients do not receive adequate palliative care.

OBJECTIVE

This concept analysis aimed to develop an in-depth understanding of palliative care for elderly patients with cardiac diseases in tertiary care.

DESIGN

The analysis was guided by Walker and Avant's method, and databases were searched using keywords, such as palliative care, tertiary care, elderly, and heart. Covidence was used to review the results using the inclusion and exclusion criteria.

RESULTS

The World Health Organisation's definition of palliative care is widely accepted. Palliative care for older adults with heart disease in tertiary care is preceded by chronic illness, polypharmacy, symptom burden, physical and cognitive decline, comorbidities, and psychosocial/spiritual issues. The main attributes of palliative care for this population include health care professionals and patient education, holistic patient/family-centered care, symptom management, shared decision-making, early integration, advanced care planning, and a multidisciplinary approach. Palliative care improves elderly cardiac patients' and their family satisfaction while reducing readmission, hospital stays, and unnecessary invasive procedures.

CONCLUSION

Collaboration between hospitals, community organizations, transitional palliative care services, and research has the potential to improve early palliative care and the well-being of the elderly cardiac population. Advanced Practice Nurses (APNs) competencies play a crucial role in promoting palliative care in the elderly HF population.

Endocrine treatment near the end of life among older women with metastatic breast cancer: a nationwide cohort study

Background

The appropriate time to discontinue chemotherapy at the end of life has been widely discussed. In contrast, few studies have investigated the patterns of endocrine treatment near death. In this study, we aimed to investigate the end-of-life endocrine treatment patterns of older women with metastatic breast cancer and explore characteristics associated with treatment.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study of all older women (age ≥65 years) with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer who died in Sweden, 2016 - 2020. We used routinely collected administrative and health data with national coverage. Treatment initiation was defined as dispensing during the last three months of life with a nine-month washout period, while continuation and discontinuation were assessed by previous use during the same period. We used log-binomial models to explore factors associated with the continuation and initiation of endocrine treatments.

Results

We included 3098 deceased older women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer (median age 78). Overall, endocrine treatment was continued by 39% and initiated by 5% and of women during their last three months of life, while 31% discontinued and 24% did not use endocrine treatment during their last year of life. Endocrine treatment continuation was more likely among older and less educated women, and among women who had multi-dose drug dispensing, chemotherapy, and CDK4/6 use. Only treatment-related factors were associated with treatment initiation.

Conclusion

More than a third of women with metastatic breast cancer continue endocrine treatments potentially past the point of benefit, whereas late initiation is less frequent. Further research is warranted to determine whether our results reflect overtreatment at the end of life once patients' preferences and survival prognosis are considered.

Specialist Palliative Care for Patients with Cancer: More Than End-of-Life Care

Palliative care has traditionally focused on end-of-life care for patients with advanced cancer. This has since expanded to include symptom management and quality-of-life improvement from the moment of cancer diagnosis. Specialist palliative care teams work across community and inpatient settings and focus on dealing with complex problems whilst supporting healthcare colleagues in providing generalist palliative care. This article will outline the principles of palliative care, models of palliative care delivery, the distinctions between palliative care and supportive care, and the role of specialist palliative care in cancer survivorship.

SPICT as a predictive tool for risk of 1-year health degradation and death in older patients admitted to the emergency department: a bicentric cohort study in Belgium

BACKGROUND

Older patients are increasingly showing multi-comorbidities, including advanced chronic diseases. When admitted to the emergency department (ED), the decision to pursue life-prolonging treatments or to initiate a palliative care approach is a challenge for clinicians. We test for the first time the diagnostic accuracy of the Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool (SPICT) in the ED to identify older patients at risk of deteriorating and dying, and timely address palliative care needs.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective bicentric cohort study on 352 older patients (≥ 75 years) admitted to two EDs in Belgium between December 2019 and March 2020 and between August and November 2020. SPICT (French version, 2019) variables were collected during the patients' admission to the ED, along with socio-demographic, medical and functional data. The palliative profile was defined as a positive SPICT assessment. Survival, symptoms and health degradation (≥ 1 point in ADL Katz score or institutionalisation and death) were followed at 12 months by phone. Main accuracy measures were sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios (LR) as well as cox regression, survival analysis using the Kaplan Meier method, and ordinal regression.

RESULTS

Out of 352 patients included in the study (mean age 83 ± 5.5 years, 43% male), 167 patients (47%) had a positive SPICT profile. At one year follow up, SPICT positive patients presented significantly more health degradation (72%) compared with SPICT negative patients (35%, p < 0.001). SPICT positivity was correlated with 1-year health degradation (OR 4.9; p < 0.001). The sensitivity and specificity of SPICT to predict health degradation were 0.65 (95%CI, 0.57-0.73) and 0.72 (95%CI, 0.64-0.80) respectively, with a negative LR of 0.48 (95%CI, 0.38-0.60) and a positive LR of 2.37 (1.78-3.16). The survival time was shorter in SPICT positive patients than in SPICT negative ones (p < 0.001), the former having a higher 1-year mortality rate (HR = 4.21; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

SPICT successfully identifies older patients at high risk of health degradation and death. It can support emergency clinicians to identify older patients with a palliative profile and subsequently initiate a palliative care approach with a discussion on goals of care.

Palliative profile, one-year mortality and quality of life in older inpatients according to Be-PICT: a multicenter prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

A palliative care approach (PCA), including advanced care planning (ACP), should be considered for patients with limited life expectancy. The Belgian Palliative Care Indicators Tool (Be-PICT) has been released to help identify patients who may benefit from such approach. This study aimed at measuring 1-year mortality and describe the quality of life in older inpatients, according to baseline Be-PICT results.

METHODS

Prospective multicentre cohort study in older patients (≥ 75 years) admitted at geriatrics and cardiology wards of four Belgian hospitals. The palliative profile was defined as a positive Be-PICT.1, defined by the presence of its three criteria, i.e. a negative physician's answer to the surprise question 'would you be surprised if this patient dies in the 6-12 next months?', ≥ 1 poor health indicator and ≥ 1 life-limiting condition.

RESULTS

Of the 379 patients (50% aged ≥85 years; 51% female), 52 (14%) presented a palliative profile and 83 (23%) died within 1 year. Be-PICT.1 showed the following characteristics to predict 1-year mortality: sensitivity 0.54, specificity 0.83, positive and negative predictive values 0.48 and 0.86, positive and negative likelihood ratios 3.22 and 0.55. The patients with a palliative profile were at higher mortality risk (hazard ratio 4.79 p < 0.001) and 1-year mortality rate (45%). Not using the SQ allowed to improve sensitivity to include a larger number of patients who may benefit from ACP and PCA.

CONCLUSIONS

Be-PICT.1 is a simple case-finding tool to identify older inpatients being at high mortality risk and candidates for ACP and PCA.

Cultural adaptation and validation of the SPICT-ES™ instrument to identify palliative care needs in Chilean older adults

INTRODUCTION

Chile presents a context of an aging population and increased life expectancy, leading to many older adults (OA) needing palliative care (PC) during the course of their illness. The SPICT-ES™ is an instrument used to clinically evaluate patients with advanced chronic illness (ACI) to detect PC needs. Validating this instrument in Chile will allow for early detection of OA at risk of clinical deterioration who require this care.

OBJECTIVE

Adapt and validate the SPICT-ES™ instrument to identify PC needs among OA in Chile.

METHODOLOGY

Study following quantitative design - cross-sectional, descriptive, and developed in three stages: cultural adaptation by expert judgment; preliminary test of the SPICT-ES^CH instrument to evaluate reliability and application of the SPICT-ES^CH in 292 patients, to determine internal consistency and stability of the instrument. This study was done between January 2019 and July 2021. Participants in the study were nurses and OA from 5 health centers in Santiago, Chile. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Universidad de los Andes.

RESULTS

In the cultural adaptation with content validity, following expert judgment, all items were kept. Semantic modifications were made on only three of them. A Lawshe coefficient of 84% which determined SPICT-ES^CH as an acceptable instrument for the following stages of validation and reliability. The pilot for the new version in Chile, SPICT-ES^CH, determined stability and consistency over time, with a Pearson correlation coefficient (ρ) of 0.9167 (p < 0.0001). In the final application of the instrument, to fortify the psychometric evaluation (n = 292) we identified 53.4% positive SPICT-ES^CH. The logistical model via OR (< 0.001) showed that the items predicted the positivity of the instrument. The internal consistency obtained was 0.8662, confirming a correlation and intercorrelation between items. 100% of nurses evaluated the SPICT-ES^CH as a useful and feasible instrument.

CONCLUSION

SPICT-ES^CH includes all the relevant indicators for adequate clinical identification of PC needs among the Chilean OA population, who could Benefit from the early introduction of palliative support contributing to their quality of life.

A Systematic Review of the Development and Implementation of Needs-Based Palliative Care Tools in Heart Failure and Chronic Respiratory Disease

Background

The impetus to develop and implement tools for non-malignant patient groups is reflected in the increasing number of instruments being developed for heart failure and chronic respiratory diseases. Evidence syntheses of psychometric quality and clinical utility of these tools is required to inform research and clinical practice.

Aims

This systematic review examined palliative care needs tools for people diagnosed with advanced heart failure or chronic respiratory diseases, to determine their: (1) psychometric quality; and (2) acceptability, feasibility and clinical utility when implemented in clinical practice.

Methods

Systematic searches of MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, Cochrane and PsycINFO from database inception until June 2021 were undertaken. Additionally, the reference lists of included studies were searched for relevant articles. Psychometric properties of identified measures were evaluated against pre-determined and standard criteria.

Results

Eighteen tools met inclusion criteria: 11 were developed to assess unmet patient palliative care needs. Of those, 6 were generic, 4 were developed for heart failure and 1 was developed for interstitial lung disease. Seven tools identified those who may benefit from palliative care and include general and disease-specific indicators. The psychometric qualities of the tools varied. None met all of the accepted criteria for psychometric rigor in heart failure or respiratory disease populations. There is limited implementation of needs assessment tools in practice.

Conclusion

Several tools were identified, however further validation studies in heart failure and respiratory disease populations are required. Rigorous evaluation to determine the impact of adopting a systematic needs-based approach for heart failure and lung disease on the physical and psychosocial outcomes of patients and carers, as well as the economic costs and benefits to the healthcare system, is required.

Supportive and palliative care indicators tool (SPICT™) in a Danish healthcare context: translation, cross-cultural adaptation, and content validation

BACKGROUND

Early identification of patients who require palliative and supportive care at the general palliative care level is challenging. The Supportive & Palliative Care Indicators Tool (SPICT™) might provide a helpful framework for this process.

AIM

To translate, culturally adapt and content validate SPICT™-DK in hospital, primary care, and general practice and within the broader Danish health care context.

METHODS

SPICT™-DK was translated and cross-culturally validated by using the TRAPD-model (Translation, Review, adjudication, pretesting, and documentation) as well as the EORTC- translation guide (European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer). In the pre-(pilot) testing phase, six focus group interviews and five individual interviews were conducted involving n = 29 health care professionals from general practice, primary care, and hospital. The qualitative data were analyzed through thematic analysis and the SPICT™-DK was then revised and published.

RESULTS

The interviews revealed that SPICT™-DK can be used to identify people with palliative care needs. Three themes were derived from the analysis and showed SPICT™-DK provides a linguistic framework but must be used as an interdisciplinary tool as that SPICT™-DK requires competencies and collaboration.

CONCLUSION

SPICT™-DK is now translated and culturally validated in a Danish healthcare setting. The tool is useful to identify people with palliative care needs but must be implemented as an interdisciplinary collaborative intervention. SPICT™ -DK cannot be used by all healthcare professionals as it requires disease-specific competencies. However, it provides a common language for early palliative care interventions which can form the basis for interdisciplinary planning of future treatment and care.

End of life care pathways in the Emergency Department and their effects on patient and health service outcomes: An integrative review

INTRODUCTION

End of life (EOL) care in the Emergency Department (ED) requires focused, person-centred care to meet the needs of this vulnerable cohort of patients.

METHODS

An integrative review of the literature using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guideline was conducted. Studies were included if they were primary research relating to patients in the ED at the EOL, and/or evaluated EOL care pathways in the ED. Databases OVID Emcare, OVID Medline, and Scopus were searched from 1966-September 2021; followed by screening and appraisal. Articles were compared and data grouped into categories.

RESULTS

Eleven research articles were included generating three categories for EOL care in ED. 1) tools/criteria to identify patients who may require EOL care in ED; 2) processes for providing EOL care, and 3) implementation methods/frameworks to support the uptake of EOL care processes.

CONCLUSION

There were some commonalities in the criteria used to identify patients who may be at their EOL and the interventions implemented thereafter. There was no standardised process for screening for or treating EOL care needs in the ED. Further research is required to determine the impact that EOL care pathways have on patient and health service outcomes to inform strategies for future policy development.

Improving Machine Learning 30-Day Mortality Prediction by Discounting Surprising Deaths

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) is an emerging tool for predicting need of end-of-life discussion and palliative care, by using mortality as a proxy. But deaths, unforeseen by emergency physicians at time of the emergency department (ED) visit, might have a weaker association with the ED visit.

OBJECTIVES

To develop an ML algorithm that predicts unsurprising deaths within 30 days after ED discharge.

METHODS

In this retrospective registry study, we included all ED attendances within the Swedish region of Halland in 2015 and 2016. All registered deaths within 30 days after ED discharge were classified as either "surprising" or "unsurprising" by an adjudicating committee with three senior specialists in emergency medicine. ML algorithms were developed for the death subclasses by using Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM).

RESULTS

Of all 30-day deaths (n = 148), 76% (n = 113) were not surprising to the adjudicating committee. The most common diseases were advanced stage cancer, multidisease/frailty, and dementia. By using LR, RF, and SVM, mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) of unsurprising deaths in the test set were 0.950 (SD 0.008), 0.944 (SD 0.007), and 0.949 (SD 0.007), respectively. For all mortality, the ROC-AUCs for LR, RF, and SVM were 0.924 (SD 0.012), 0.922 (SD 0.009), and 0.931 (SD 0.008). The difference in prediction performance between all and unsurprising death was statistically significant (P < .001) for all three models.

CONCLUSION

In patients discharged to home from the ED, three-quarters of all 30-day deaths did not surprise an adjudicating committee with emergency medicine specialists. When only unsurprising deaths were included, ML mortality prediction improved significantly.