Informing critical care drug requirements in response to the COVID-19 pandemic

The Medicines Optimisation Innovation Centre: a dedicated centre driving innovation in medicines optimisation-impact and sustainability

BACKGROUND

Sub-optimal medicines use is a challenge globally, contributing to poorer health outcomes, inefficiencies and waste. The Medicines Optimisation Innovation Centre (MOIC) was established in Northern Ireland by the Department of Health (DH) in 2015 to support implementation of the Medicines Optimisation Quality Framework.

AIM

To demonstrate how MOIC informs policy and provides support to commissioners to improve population health and wellbeing.

SETTING

MOIC is a regional centre with multidisciplinary and multi-sector clinical expertise across Health and Social Care and patient representation.

DEVELOPMENT

Core funded by DH, MOIC has a robust governance structure and oversight programme board. An annual business plan is agreed with DH. Rigorous processes have been developed for project adoption and working collaboratively with industry.

IMPLEMENTATION

MOIC has established partnerships with academia, industry, healthcare and representative organisations across Europe, participating in research and development projects and testing integrated technology solutions. A hosting programme has been established and evaluation and dissemination strategies have been developed.

EVALUATION

MOIC has established numerous agreements, partnered in three large EU projects and strengthened networks globally with extensive publications and conference presentations. Informing pathway redesign, sustainability and COVID response, MOIC has also assisted in the development of clinical pharmacy services and antimicrobial stewardship in Europe and Africa. Northern Ireland has been recognised as a 4-star European Active and Healthy Ageing Reference Site and the Integrated Medicines Management model as an example of best practice in Central and Eastern Europe.

CONCLUSION

MOIC has demonstrated considerable success and sustainability and is applicable to health systems globally.

The European COVID-19 drugs calculation tool: an aid for the estimation of the drugs needed during the SARS-CoV 2 pandemic

Objective

To create an informatics supportive tool, which can assist healthcare professionals in estimating potential requirements for essential drug supplies to respond to the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic based on epidemiological forecasting.

Methods

The tool was based on a Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) epidemiological model in which the population is divided into three compartments and transmission parameters are specified to define the rate at which people move between stages. Appropriate data entry was guaranteed by the creation of structured guided paths. The drugs needed for the forecasted patients were estimated according to a list of critical care drugs compiled by consulting previous published scientific works, national and international guidelines. For each drug, an estimation was made of the percentage average ICU uptake for each therapeutic group and active principle.

Results

The tool consists of a Microsoft Excel template that is based on the initial epidemiological situation, the non-pharmaceutical interventions applied, the risk of hospitalisation based on the population age distribution, and the hospital beds available. The tool provides a forecast of which patients with COVID-19 will need to be treated in a hospital setting. The number of patients is used to estimate the drugs needed based on the average daily dose and the treatment length of each drug. The possibility of editing the type of distribution (exponential or linear) of the number of patients at the beginning of the analysis, the percentage adherence with non-pharmaceutical interventions and their delayed effect, and all the key epidemiological parameters make the estimation tailorable to different clinical contexts and needs.

Conclusions

This model might be an effective supporting tool that could be easily implemented within the workflow of health professionals. All the information reported in this paper could be useful in developing new strategies to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic.