1
|
Miron A, Lafreniere-Roula M, Steve Fan CP, Armstrong KR, Dragulescu A, Papaz T, Manlhiot C, Kaufman B, Butts RJ, Gardin L, Stephenson EA, Howard TS, Aziz PF, Balaji S, Ladouceur VB, Benson LN, Colan SD, Godown J, Henderson HT, Ingles J, Jeewa A, Jefferies JL, Lal AK, Mathew J, Jean-St-Michel E, Michels M, Nakano SJ, Olivotto I, Parent JJ, Pereira AC, Semsarian C, Whitehill RD, Wittekind SG, Russell MW, Conway J, Richmond ME, Villa C, Weintraub RG, Rossano JW, Kantor PF, Ho CY, Mital S. A Validated Model for Sudden Cardiac Death Risk Prediction in Pediatric Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy. Circulation 2020; 142:217-229. [PMID: 32418493 PMCID: PMC7365676 DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.120.047235] [Citation(s) in RCA: 110] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2020] [Accepted: 04/29/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is the leading cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in children and young adults. Our objective was to develop and validate a SCD risk prediction model in pediatric hypertrophic cardiomyopathy to guide SCD prevention strategies. METHODS In an international multicenter observational cohort study, phenotype-positive patients with isolated hypertrophic cardiomyopathy <18 years of age at diagnosis were eligible. The primary outcome variable was the time from diagnosis to a composite of SCD events at 5-year follow-up: SCD, resuscitated sudden cardiac arrest, and aborted SCD, that is, appropriate shock following primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillators. Competing risk models with cause-specific hazard regression were used to identify and quantify clinical and genetic factors associated with SCD. The cause-specific regression model was implemented using boosting, and tuned with 10 repeated 4-fold cross-validations. The final model was fitted using all data with the tuned hyperparameter value that maximizes the c-statistic, and its performance was characterized by using the c-statistic for competing risk models. The final model was validated in an independent external cohort (SHaRe [Sarcomeric Human Cardiomyopathy Registry], n=285). RESULTS Overall, 572 patients met eligibility criteria with 2855 patient-years of follow-up. The 5-year cumulative proportion of SCD events was 9.1% (14 SCD, 25 resuscitated sudden cardiac arrests, and 14 aborted SCD). Risk predictors included age at diagnosis, documented nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, unexplained syncope, septal diameter z-score, left ventricular posterior wall diameter z score, left atrial diameter z score, peak left ventricular outflow tract gradient, and presence of a pathogenic variant. Unlike in adults, left ventricular outflow tract gradient had an inverse association, and family history of SCD had no association with SCD. Clinical and clinical/genetic models were developed to predict 5-year freedom from SCD. Both models adequately discriminated between patients with and without SCD events with a c-statistic of 0.75 and 0.76, respectively, and demonstrated good agreement between predicted and observed events in the primary and validation cohorts (validation c-statistic 0.71 and 0.72, respectively). CONCLUSION Our study provides a validated SCD risk prediction model with >70% prediction accuracy and incorporates risk factors that are unique to pediatric hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. An individualized risk prediction model has the potential to improve the application of clinical practice guidelines and shared decision making for implantable cardioverter defibrillator insertion. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT0403679.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Anastasia Miron
- Division of Cardiology (A.M., T.P., S.M.), Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Myriam Lafreniere-Roula
- Ted Rogers Computational Program, Ted Rogers Center for Heart Research, The Hospital for Sick Children, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (M.L.-R., C.-P, S.F.)
| | - Chun-Po Steve Fan
- Ted Rogers Computational Program, Ted Rogers Center for Heart Research, The Hospital for Sick Children, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (M.L.-R., C.-P, S.F.)
| | - Katey R. Armstrong
- Division of Pediatric Cardiology, Department of Pediatrics, British Columbia Children’s Hospital, Vancouver, Canada (K.R.A.)
| | - Andreea Dragulescu
- Department of Cardiology (A.D., V.B.L., L.N.B., A.J., E.J.-St-M.), Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Tanya Papaz
- Division of Cardiology (A.M., T.P., S.M.), Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Cedric Manlhiot
- Department of Pediatrics, Johns Hopkins Medical Center, Baltimore, MD (C.M.)
| | - Beth Kaufman
- Department of Pediatrics, Lucile Packard Children’s Hospital Stanford, Palo Alto, CA (B.K.)
| | - Ryan J. Butts
- Division of Pediatric Cardiology, Department of Pediatrics, Children’s Medical Center of Dallas, TX (R.J.B.)
| | - Letizia Gardin
- Department of Cardiology, Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada (L.G.)
| | - Elizabeth A. Stephenson
- Department of Cardiology, Labatt Family Heart Center, Hospital for Sick Children, University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada (E.A.S., S.M.)
| | - Taylor S. Howard
- Department of Pediatrics, Section of Pediatric Cardiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Texas Children’s Hospital (T.S.H.)
| | - Pete F. Aziz
- Center for Pediatric and Congenital Heart Disease, Pediatric Electrophysiology and Pacing, Cleveland Clinic Children’s Hospital, OH (P.F.A.)
| | - Seshadri Balaji
- Department of Pediatrics, Division of Cardiology, Oregon Health & Science University, OHSU Doernbecher Children’s Hospital, Portland (S.B.)
| | - Virginie Beauséjour Ladouceur
- Department of Cardiology (A.D., V.B.L., L.N.B., A.J., E.J.-St-M.), Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Lee N. Benson
- Department of Cardiology (A.D., V.B.L., L.N.B., A.J., E.J.-St-M.), Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Steven D. Colan
- Department of Cardiology, Boston Children’s Hospital, MA (S.D.C.)
| | - Justin Godown
- Department of Pediatrics, Division of Pediatric Cardiology, Monroe Carrell Jr Children’s Hospital at Vanderbilt, Nashville, TN (J.G.)
| | | | - Jodie Ingles
- Agnes Ginges Center for Molecular Cardiology at Centenary Institute, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia (J.I., C.S.)
| | - Aamir Jeewa
- Department of Cardiology (A.D., V.B.L., L.N.B., A.J., E.J.-St-M.), Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - John L. Jefferies
- Division of Adult Cardiovascular Diseases, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis (J.L.J.)
| | - Ashwin K. Lal
- Division of Pediatric Cardiology, University of Utah Primary Children’s Hospital, Salt Lake City (A.K.L.)
| | - Jacob Mathew
- Department of Cardiology, The Royal Children’s Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (J.M., R.G.W.)
| | - Emilie Jean-St-Michel
- Department of Cardiology (A.D., V.B.L., L.N.B., A.J., E.J.-St-M.), Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Michelle Michels
- Department of Cardiology, Thoraxcenter, Erasmus MC Rotterdam, South Holland, Netherlands (M.M.)
| | - Stephanie J. Nakano
- Department of Pediatrics, Division of Cardiology, Children’s Hospital Colorado, Aurora (S.J.N.)
| | - Iacopo Olivotto
- Referral Center for Cardiomyopathies, Careggi University Hospital, Florence, Italy (I.O.)
| | - John J. Parent
- Department of Pediatrics, Riley Children’s Hospital, Indianapolis, IN (J.J.P.)
| | - Alexandre C. Pereira
- Laboratory of Genetics and Molecular Cardiology, Heart Institute (InCor), University of Sao Paulo Medical School, Brazil (A.C.P.)
| | - Christopher Semsarian
- Agnes Ginges Center for Molecular Cardiology at Centenary Institute, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia (J.I., C.S.)
| | | | | | - Mark W. Russell
- Pediatrics, C.S. Mott Children’s Hospital, Ann Arbor, MI (M.W.R.)
| | - Jennifer Conway
- Division of Pediatric Cardiology, Department of Pediatrics, Stollery Children’s Hospital, Edmonton, AB, Canada (J.C.)
| | - Marc E. Richmond
- Division of Pediatric Cardiology, Department of Pediatrics, Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons/Morgan Stanley Children’s Hospital, New York, NY (M.E.R.)
| | - Chet Villa
- The Heart Institute, Cincinnati Children’s Hospital, OH (S.G.W., C.V.)
| | - Robert G. Weintraub
- Department of Cardiology, The Royal Children’s Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (J.M., R.G.W.)
- Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (R.G.W.)
| | - Joseph W. Rossano
- Division of Cardiology, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, PA (J.W.R.)
| | - Paul F. Kantor
- Division of Cardiology, Children’s Hospital of Los Angeles, CA (P.F.K.)
| | - Carolyn Y. Ho
- Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA (C.Y.H.)
| | - Seema Mital
- Division of Cardiology (A.M., T.P., S.M.), Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Cardiology, Labatt Family Heart Center, Hospital for Sick Children, University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada (E.A.S., S.M.)
| |
Collapse
|