Characteristics and outcomes of patients with suspected heart failure referred in line with National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance

Deep learning-based NT-proBNP prediction from the ECG for risk assessment in the community

OBJECTIVES

The biomarker N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) has predictive value for identifying individuals at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, it is not widely used for screening in the general population, potentially due to financial and operational reasons. This study aims to develop a deep-learning model as an efficient means to reliably identify individuals at risk for CVD by predicting serum levels of NT-proBNP from the ECG.

METHODS

A deep convolutional neural network was developed using the population-based cohort study Hamburg City Health Study (HCHS, n=8,253, 50.9 % women). External validation was performed in two independent population-based cohorts (SHIP-START, n=3,002, 52.1 % women, and SHIP-TREND, n=3,819, 51.2 % women). Assessment of model performance was conducted using Pearson correlation (R) and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

NT-proBNP was predictable from the ECG (R, 0.566 [HCHS], 0.642 [SHIP-START-0], 0.655 [SHIP-TREND-0]). Across cohorts, predicted NT-proBNP (pNT-proBNP) showed good discriminatory ability for prevalent and incident heart failure (HF) (baseline: AUROC 0.795 [HCHS], 0.816 [SHIP-START-0], 0.783 [SHIP-TREND-0]; first follow-up: 0.669 [SHIP-START-1, 5 years], 0.689 [SHIP-TREND-1, 7.3 years]), comparable to the discriminatory value of measured NT-proBNP. pNT-proBNP also demonstrated comparable results for other incident CVD, including atrial fibrillation, stroke, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death.

CONCLUSIONS

Deep learning ECG algorithms can predict NT-proBNP concentrations with high diagnostic and predictive value for HF and other major CVD and may be used in the community to identify individuals at risk. Long-standing experience with NT-proBNP can increase acceptance of such deep learning models in clinical practice.

Clinical Influence of Handheld Ultrasound, Supported by Automatic Quantification and Telemedicine, in Suspected Heart Failure

Early and correct heart failure (HF) diagnosis is essential to improvement of patient care. We aimed to evaluate the clinical influence of handheld ultrasound device (HUD) examinations by general practitioners (GPs) in patients with suspected HF with or without the use of automatic measurement of left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (autoEF), mitral annular plane systolic excursion (autoMAPSE) and telemedical support. Five GPs with limited ultrasound experience examined 166 patients with suspected HF (median interquartile range = 70 (63-78) y; mean ± SD EF = 53 ± 10%). They first performed a clinical examination. Second, they added an examination with HUD, automatic quantification tools and, finally, telemedical support by an external cardiologist. At all stages, the GPs considered whether the patients had HF. The final diagnosis was made by one of five cardiologists using medical history and clinical evaluation including a standard echocardiography. Compared with the cardiologists' decision, the GPs correctly classified 54% by clinical evaluation. The proportion increased to 71% after adding HUDs, and to 74 % after telemedical evaluation. Net reclassification improvement was highest for HUD with telemedicine. There was no significant benefit of the automatic tools (p ≥ 0.58). Addition of HUD and telemedicine improved the GPs' diagnostic precision in suspected HF. Automatic LV quantification added no benefit. Refined algorithms and more training may be needed before inexperienced users benefit from automatic quantification of cardiac function by HUDs.

Patient characteristics, short-term and long-term outcomes after incident heart failure admissions in a regional Australian setting

AIMS

This study aims to (1) define the characteristics of patients with a first admission for heart failure (HF), stratified by type (reduced (HFrEF) vs preserved (HFpEF) ejection fraction) in a regional Australian setting; (2) compare the outcomes in terms of mortality and rehospitalisation and (3) assess adherence to the treatment guidelines.

METHODS

We identified all index hospitalisations with HF to John Hunter Hospital and Tamworth Rural Referral Hospital in the Hunter New England Local Health District over a 12 months. We used the recent Australian HF guidelines to classify HFrEF and HFpEF and assess adherence to guideline-directed therapy. The primary outcome of the study was to compare short-term (1 year) and long-term all-cause mortality and the composite of all-cause hospitalisation or all-cause mortality of patients with HFrEF and HFpEF.

RESULTS

There were 664 patients who had an index HF admission to John Hunter and Tamworth hospitals in 2014. The median age was 80 years, 47% were female and 22 (3%) were Aboriginal. In terms of HF type, 29% had HFrEF, 37% had HFpEF, while the remainder (34%) did not have an echocardiogram within 1 year of admission and could not be classified. The median follow-up was 3.3 years. HFrEF patients were predominantly male (64%) and in 48% the aetiology was ischaemic heart disease. The 1-year all-cause mortality was 23% in HFpEF subgroup and 29% in HFrEF subgroup (p=0.15). Five-year mortality was 61% in HFpEF and HFrEF patients. Of the HFrEF patients, only 61% were on renin-angiotensin-aldosterone blockers, 74% were on β-blockers and 39% were on aldosterone antagonist.

CONCLUSION

HF patients are elderly and about evenly split between HFrEF and HFpEF. In this regional cohort, both HF types are associated with similar 1-year and 5-year mortality following incident HF hospitalisation. Echocardiography and guideline-directed therapies were underused.

NICE diagnostic heart failure pathway: screening referrals identifies patients better served by community-based management

AIMS

Evaluate whether UK National Institute for Health & Care Excellence (NICE) chronic heart failure (HF) guidelines can be safely and effectively refined through specialist referral management.

METHODS AND RESULTS

All referrals to a UK centre 1/3/2019-30/5/2019 and 1/6/2020-31/7/2020 were reviewed by HF specialists. Patients were triaged to specialist assessment in HF clinic, according to the NICE HF diagnostic pathway [urgency based on N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP) levels], or the referrer given remote Advice & Guidance (A&G), to aid primary care management. Standardized triage criteria for recommending primary care management were (i) presentation inconsistent with HF, (ii) competing comorbidity/frailty meant specialist assessment in clinic not in patient's best interests, (iii) recent assessment for same condition, or (iv) patient had known HF. Following triage patients managed in the primary care were categorized as low or high risk of adverse outcomes. Outcome measures were 90 day all-cause and HF hospital admission and mortality rates. Four hundred and eighty-six patients had the median age of 80 (74-86) years, and 253 (52%) were male. Two hundred and six (42%) had NTproBNP > 2000 pg/mL. Primary care management was recommended for 128 patients (26%): 105 (22%) A&G alone and 23 input from community HF nurse specialists. Primary care management was recommended due to the following: presentation inconsistent with HF 53 (42%), more important competing comorbidity/frailty 35 (27%), recent assessment 17 (13%), and known HF 23 (18%). Patients managed in primary care had higher rates of all-cause hospitalization (30% vs. 19%; P = 0.018) and death (7% vs. 2%; P = 0.0054) than those seen in HF clinic. Of those managed in primary care, 50 (39%) were determined to be at low risk and 78 (61%) at high risk. High-risk patients were older (87 vs. 80 years; P = 0.0026), had much higher NTproBNP (2666 vs. 697 pg/mL; P < 0.0001), and were managed in the primary care due to severe comorbidity (45%) or known HF (31%). They had extremely high rates of adverse outcomes: 35 all-cause hospitalization (45%), 12 HF hospitalization (15%), and 9 deaths (12%). Low-risk patients were usually felt not to have HF (86%) and confirmed to have low rates of adverse outcomes: three all-cause hospitalizations (6%; P < 0.0001 compared with high risk) and zero HF hospitalization (P = 0.0033) or death (P = <0.012).

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating specialist referral management into NICE HF diagnostic pathway reduces the demand on HF clinics and may improve the patient experience by facilitating community care. However, many of the patients identified for primary care management are at very high risk of adverse outcomes in the short term and are frequently hospitalized. Urgent implementation of alternative pathways and community-based care packages in parallel for these high-risk patients is extremely important.

Long term trends in natriuretic peptide testing for heart failure in UK primary care: a cohort study

AIMS

Heart failure (HF) is a malignant condition with poor outcomes and is often diagnosed on emergency hospital admission. Natriuretic peptide (NP) testing in primary care is recommended in international guidelines to facilitate timely diagnosis. We aimed to report contemporary trends in NP testing and subsequent HF diagnosis rates over time.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Cohort study using linked primary and secondary care data of adult (≥45 years) patients in England 2004-18 (n = 7 212 013, 48% male) to report trends in NP testing (over time, by age, sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status) and HF diagnosis rates. NP test rates increased from 0.25 per 1000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.23-0.26] in 2004 to 16.88 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 16.73-17.03) in 2018, with a significant upward trend in 2010 following publication of national HF guidance. Women and different ethnic groups had similar test rates, and there was more NP testing in older and more socially deprived groups as expected. The HF detection rate was constant over the study period (around 10%) and the proportion of patients without NP testing prior to diagnosis remained high [99.6% (n = 13 484) in 2004 vs. 76.7% (n = 12 978) in 2017].

CONCLUSION

NP testing in primary care has increased over time, with no evidence of significant inequalities, but most patients with HF still do not have an NP test recorded prior to diagnosis. More NP testing in primary care may be needed to prevent hospitalization and facilitate HF diagnosis at an earlier, more treatable stage.

Characteristics of patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in primary care: a cross-sectional analysis

Background

Many patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) are undiagnosed, and UK general practice registers do not typically record heart failure (HF) subtype. Improvements in management of HFpEF is dependent on improved identification and characterisation of patients in primary care.

Aim

To describe a cohort of patients recruited from primary care with suspected HFpEF and compare patients in whom HFpEF was confirmed and refuted.

Design & setting

Baseline data from a longitudinal cohort study of patients with suspected HFpEF recruited from primary care in two areas of England.

Method

A screening algorithm and review were used to find patients on HF registers without a record of reduced ejection fraction (EF). Baseline evaluation included cardiac, mental and physical function, clinical characteristics, and patient reported outcomes. Confirmation of HFpEF was clinically adjudicated by a cardiologist.

Results

In total, 93 (61%) of 152 patients were confirmed HFpEF. The mean age of patients with HFpEF was 79 years, 46% were female, 80% had hypertension, and 37% took ≥10 medications. Patients with HFpEF were more likely to be obese, pre-frail or frail, report more dyspnoea and fatigue, were more functionally impaired, and less active than patients in whom HFpEF was refuted. Few had attended cardiac rehabilitation.

Conclusion

Patients with confirmed HFpEF had frequent multimorbidity, functional impairment, frailty, and polypharmacy. Although comorbid conditions were similar between people with and without HFpEF, the former had more obesity, symptoms, and worse physical function. These findings highlight the potential to optimise wellbeing through comorbidity management, medication rationalisation, rehabilitation, and supported self-management.

Natriuretic peptide level at heart failure diagnosis and risk of hospitalisation and death in England 2004-2018

Objective

Heart failure (HF) is a malignant condition requiring urgent treatment. Guidelines recommend natriuretic peptide (NP) testing in primary care to prioritise referral for specialist diagnostic assessment. We aimed to assess association of baseline NP with hospitalisation and mortality in people with newly diagnosed HF.

Methods

Population-based cohort study of 40 007 patients in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England with a new HF diagnosis (48% men, mean age 78.5 years). We used linked primary and secondary care data between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2018 to report one-year hospitalisation and 1-year, 5-year and 10-year mortality by NP level.

Results

22 085 (55%) participants were hospitalised in the year following diagnosis. Adjusted odds of HF-related hospitalisation in those with a high NP (NT-proBNP >2000 pg/mL) were twofold greater (OR 2.26 95% CI 1.98 to 2.59) than a moderate NP (NT-proBNP 400–2000 pg/mL). All-cause mortality rates in the high NP group were 27%, 62% and 82% at 1, 5 and 10 years, compared with 19%, 50% and 77%, respectively, in the moderate NP group and, in a competing risks model, risk of HF-related death was 50% higher at each timepoint. Median time between NP test and HF diagnosis was 101 days (IQR 19–581).

Conclusions

High baseline NP is associated with increased HF-related hospitalisation and poor survival. While healthcare systems remain under pressure from the impact of COVID-19, research to test novel strategies to prevent hospitalisation and improve outcomes—such as a mandatory two-week HF diagnosis pathway—is urgently needed.

Characterisation of the patients with suspected heart failure: experience from the SHEAF registry

OBJECTIVES

To characterise and risk-stratify patients presenting to a heart failure (HF) clinic according to the National Institute for health and Care Excellence (NICE) algorithm.

METHODS

This is an observational study of prospectively collected data in the Sheffield HEArt Failure registry of consecutive patients with suspected HF between April 2012 and January 2020. Outcome was defined as all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

6144 patients were enrolled: 71% had HF and 29% had no HF. Patients with N-terminal pro-brain-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) >2000 pg/mL were more likely to have HF than those with NT-proBNP of 400-2000 pg/mL (92% vs 64%, respectively). Frequency of HF phenotypes include: HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) (33%), HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) (29%), HF due to valvular heart disease (4%), HF due to pulmonary hypertension (5%) and HF due to right ventricular systolic dysfunction (1%). There were 1485 (24%) deaths over a maximum follow-up of 6 years. The death rate was higher in HF versus no HF (11.49 vs 7.29 per 100 patient-years follow-up, p<0.0001). Patients with HF and an NT-proBNP >2000 pg/mL had lower survival than those with NT-proBNP 400-2000 pg/mL (3.8 years vs 5 years, p<0.0001). Propensity matched survival curves were comparable between HFpEF and HFrEF (p=0.88).

CONCLUSION

Our findings support the use by NICE's HF diagnostic algorithm of tiered triage of patients with suspected HF based on their NT-proBNP levels. The two pathways yielded distinctive groups of patients with varied diagnoses and prognosis. HFpEF is the most frequent diagnosis, with its challenges of poor prognosis and paucity of therapeutic options.