Mortality on match days of the German national soccer team: a time series analysis from 1995 to 2009

Exponentially Increasing Trend of Infected Patients with COVID-19 in Iran: A Comparison of Neural Network and ARIMA Forecasting Models

BACKGROUND

The outbreak of COVID-19 is rapidly spreading around the world and became a pandemic disease. For help to better planning of interventions, this study was conducted to forecast the number of daily new infected cases with COVID-19 for next thirty days in Iran.

METHODS

The information of observed Iranian new cases from 19th Feb to 30th Mar 2020 was used to predict the number of patients until 29th Apr. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were applied for prediction. The data was prepared from daily reports of Iran Ministry of Health and open datasets provided by the JOHN Hopkins. To compare models, dataset was separated into train and test sets. Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) was the comparison criteria.

RESULTS

Both algorithms forecasted an exponential increase in number of newly infected patients. If the spreading pattern continues the same as before, the number of daily new cases would be 7872 and 9558 by 29th Apr, respectively by ANN and ARIMA. While Model comparison confirmed that ARIMA prediction was more accurate than ANN.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 is contagious disease, and has infected many people in Iran. Our results are an alarm for health policy planners and decision-makers, to make timely decisions, control the disease and provide the equipment needed.

Associations of cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality in the populations watching major football tournaments: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

BACKGROUND

Whether or not increased hospitalizations and/or deaths due to cardiovascular disease during major football tournaments (MFTs) remains controversial. We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies to assess the relationships of cardiovascular events and MFTs.

METHODS

Observational studies reporting relationship of cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality with MFTs during the days of games or within 2 weeks after game season were included. Relative risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were pooled and analyzed using a random/fixed-effects model.

RESULTS

Nineteen cross-sectional observational studies that examined the association between MFTs and non-fetal cardiovascular events and mortality were found to be eligible from 3419 references, for inclusion in the systematic review and meta-analysis. Of the 10 studies reported hospitalizations due to non-fetal acute cardiovascular events, the pooled RR was 1.17 (95% CI 1.01-1.36). Of the 10 studies reported cardiovascular mortality the pooled RR was 1.03 (95% CI 1.00-1.05). Of the studies examining the mortality, 6 studies reported the lost or win of the national team. Pooling of four studies where their national teams lost the MFTs produced a RR for the mortality of 1.19 (95% CI: 1.09-1.30), and 4 studies of the 6 whose national teams won produced a pooled RR for cardiovascular mortality of 0.88 (0.79-0.98).

CONCLUSION

This systematic review and meta-analysis showed an increased risk of hospitalization due to non-fetal acute cardiovascular events and cardiovascular mortality with watching MFTs.