Decreasing AIDS mortality rates among young adults in the city of Florence, 1987-1999

Major reduction in AIDS-mortality inequalities after HAART: the importance of absolute differences in evaluating interventions

This study estimates the magnitude of inequalities in AIDS mortality in the period when highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) was introduced and after its widespread dissemination in the Region of Madrid, Spain. Two population cohorts were constructed by linking records from 1996 and 2001 population censuses with mortality registry records after initial and full implementation of HAART, respectively. Absolute and relative differences in AIDS mortality in people aged 20-49 years were estimated in each population cohort according to neighbourhood and individual socioeconomic position. The absolute difference in mortality between neighbourhoods with highest and lowest socioeconomic position (unemployment rate, per capita income) declined from about 30/100,000 person-years in the 1996 population cohort to 8/100,000 person-years in the 2001 population cohort. The absolute difference in mortality between individuals with the highest and lowest socioeconomic position fell from about 60/100,000 person-years in the first cohort to about 20/100,000 in the second. Relative differences in mortality by neighbourhood socioeconomic position and by individual education level also decreased in the 2001 cohort with respect to the 1996 cohort. Although relative differences by individual occupation increased, there was no evidence of a significant change. These findings show major reduction in absolute socioeconomic differences in AIDS mortality after HAART and indicate that the use of relative differences alone may be inadequate to fully evaluate the results of health interventions.

Evaluating the impact of methadone maintenance programmes on mortality due to overdose and aids in a cohort of heroin users in Spain

AIMS

To assess the relationship between methadone treatment (MT) and overdose and HIV/AIDS mortality among heroin users resident in Barcelona city.

DESIGN

All patients who started treatment in any treatment centre between 1992 and 1997 were included in a cohort the first time they were admitted for heroin addiction treatment. Follow-up controls were carried out every 9 months, on average, until 31 December 1999. Variables, both constant and varying over time, were fitted into Cox regression models.

FINDINGS

The study recruited 5049 patients, which provided 23,048.2 person-years. Fifty per cent were in MT during the study period; of the total cohort 1005 patients died: 38.4% due to AIDS, 34.7% to overdose and 27% to other causes. Overall mortality decreased from 5.9 deaths per 100 person-years in 1992 to 1.6 in 1999. Globally, life expectancy at birth was 39 years, 38 years lower than that of the general population. The main factor for overdose mortality was not being in MT at the time of death [relative ratio (RR) = 7.1]; other factors were being a current injector at baseline and being HIV positive. For AIDS mortality, the main factor was the calendar year (RR for 1996 versus 1999 = 4.6), the next major factor was more than 10 years of heroin consumption, followed by not being in MT, being unemployed, then having a prison record.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed mortality decline could be linked to the effectiveness of low-threshold MT. The life expectancy of heroin users increased by 21 years during the study period.

Declining AIDS mortality in Amsterdam: contributions of declining HIV incidence and effective therapy

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to evaluate the impact of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on AIDS mortality, taking into account earlier HIV incidence patterns.

METHODS

Using AIDS Surveillance data (1982-2000), we calculated the observed course of the AIDS epidemic among homosexual men in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. We used the HIV incidence patterns (1980-2000) among homosexual men participating in the hepatitis B vaccine trial and the Amsterdam Cohort Study and those attending the Amsterdam sexual transmitted infections clinic, together with the time from seroconversion to AIDS and death in the pre-HAART era, to estimate the natural course of the AIDS epidemic if HAART had not been introduced.

RESULTS

The estimated course of the AIDS epidemic without the benefits of HAART showed a decline in AIDS mortality, but this estimated decline was not as strong as the observed decline. Taking into account the HIV incidence over calendar time, we estimated that 331 deaths among homosexual men were prevented by HAART between 1996 and 2000 in Amsterdam.

CONCLUSION

The decline in AIDS mortality was the result of both HAART and a decline in the HIV incidence in the early 1980s. When evaluating the effect of HAART on mortality, changes in HIV incidence must also be considered.