Adverse pregnancy outcomes in women with systemic lupus erythematosus: can we improve predictions with machine learning?

Molecular insights into programmed cell death in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Background

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is a deadly type of esophageal cancer. Programmed cell death (PCD) is an important pathway of cellular self-extermination and is closely involved in cancer progression. A detailed study of its mechanism may contribute to ESCC treatment.

Methods

We obtained expression profiling data of ESCC patients from public databases and genes related to 12 types of PCD from previous studies. Hub genes in ESCC were screened from PCD-related genes applying differential expression analysis, machine learning analysis, linear support vector machine (SVM), random forest and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression analysis. In addition, based on the HTFtarget and TargetScan databases, transcription factors (TFs) and miRNAs interacting with the hub genes were selected. The relationship between hub genes and immune cells were analyzed using the CIBERSORT algorithm. Finally, to verify the potential impact of the screened hub genes on ESCC occurrence and development, a series of in vitro cell experiments were conducted.

Results

We screened 149 PCD-related DEGs, of which five DEGs (INHBA, LRRK2, HSP90AA1, HSPB8, and EIF2AK2) were identified as the hub genes of ESCC. The area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the integrated model developed using the hub genes reached 0.997, showing a noticeably high diagnostic accuracy. The number of TFs and miRNAs regulating hub genes was 105 and 22, respectively. INHBA, HSP90AA1 and EIF2AK2 were overexpressed in cancer tissues and cells of ESCC. Notably, INHBA knockdown suppressed ECSS cell migration and invasion and altered the expression of important apoptotic and survival proteins.

Conclusion

This study identified significant molecules with promising accuracy for the diagnosis of ESCC, which may provide a new perspective and experimental basis for ESCC research.

Antiphospholipid antibodies and the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This article aims to evaluate the magnitude of adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs) risks associated with different antiphospholipid antibody (aPL) profiles in women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

Multiple databases were investigated to identify articles that explored the relationship between aPLs and APOs in SLE patients. A random effects model was used for calculating pooled odds ratios (OR). Stata version 15.0 was utilized to conduct the meta-analysis.

RESULTS

There were 5234 patients involved in 30 studies. Overall aPL was linked to an increased incidence of any kind of APOs, fetal loss, and preterm birth. Any kind of APOs and preterm delivery were more common in patients with lupus anticoagulant (LA) positive. Anticardiolipin antibody (aCL) was associated with an increased risk of any kind of APOs and fetal loss. The association between aCL-IgM and fetal loss was also significant. Patients with anti-beta2-glycoprotein1 antibody (antiβ2GP1) positivity had an increased risk of fetal loss.

CONCLUSIONS

Both LA and aCL were risk factors of APOs in patients with SLE. Not only ACL, particularly aCL-IgM, but antiβ2GP1 were associated with an increased risk of fetal loss, while LA appeared to indicate the risk of preterm birth.PROSPERO (CRD42023388122).

Machine learning techniques for prediction in pregnancy complicated by autoimmune rheumatic diseases: Applications and challenges

Autoimmune rheumatic diseases are chronic conditions affecting multiple systems and often occurring in young women of childbearing age. The diseases and the physiological characteristics of pregnancy significantly impact maternal-fetal health and pregnancy outcomes. Currently, the integration of big data with healthcare has led to the increasing popularity of using machine learning (ML) to mine clinical data for studying pregnancy complications. In this review, we introduce the basics of ML and the recent advances and trends of ML in different prediction applications for common pregnancy complications by autoimmune rheumatic diseases. Finally, the challenges and future for enhancing the accuracy, reliability, and clinical applicability of ML in prediction have been discussed. This review will provide insights into the utilization of ML in identifying and assisting clinical decision-making for pregnancy complications, while also establishing a foundation for exploring comprehensive management strategies for pregnancy and enhancing maternal and child health.

A Comparison of Obstetric Outcomes in Antiphospholipid Syndrome Among Pregnant Women With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Objective The aim of this study was to evaluate the maternal and perinatal outcomes in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) women with antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). Methods This retrospective case-control study was conducted among pregnant women with SLE with and without APS. Group A included SLE patients with APS, whereas group B included pregnant SLE women without APS. Data were expressed as mean ± standard deviation (SD). Frequency and percentage were computed for categorical data. The chi-square test was used to analyze the difference between categorical data. Results Out of 125 cases of SLE, APS was found in 72 (57.6%) women. Almost 95.8% of patients were on treatment (aspirin and enoxaparin) in group A. Preterm delivery (31.89±7.36 versus 34.46±4.97; p=0.021) and termination of pregnancy (18.1% [13/72] versus 5.7% [3/53]; p=0.04) were statistically significant in group A. Among these terminations, second-trimester intrauterine death is found to be more in group A (SLE with APS) (16.7% [12/72]) as compared to group B (SLE without APS) (5.7% [3/53]) with a p-value of 0.05. Perinatal outcomes including NICU admissions (39% [23/59] versus 24% [12/50]; p=0.071) and neonatal death (12.3% [7/57]; p=0.015) were also found to be statistically significant between the two groups. Conclusion APS with SLE is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes such as preterm birth, termination of pregnancy due to second-trimester fetal loss, more NICU admission, and neonatal deaths when compared to the control group. Hence, pregnancies with APS with SLE require vigilant monitoring and frequent follow-ups to ensure a positive pregnancy outcome.

Understanding the Pathophysiology of Preeclampsia: Exploring the Role of Antiphospholipid Antibodies and Future Directions

Preeclampsia (PE) is a hypertensive disorder in pregnancy associated with significant fetal and maternal complications. Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is an acquired form of thrombophilia characterized by recurrent venous or arterial thrombosis and obstetric complications that significantly increases morbidity and mortality rates. While preeclampsia may not be the most prevalent obstetric complication in APS, it significantly impacts the long-term health of both mother and child. The treatment of preeclampsia in antiphospholipid syndrome is different from the treatment of preeclampsia as an independent disease. Despite current treatments involving anticoagulants, antiplatelet agents, and antihypertensive drugs, obstetric complications may persist, underscoring the need for cohesive management and effective treatments. The objective of our review is to briefly present knowledge about the physiopathology of preeclampsia and the role of antiphospholipid antibodies in this process. Based on the existing literature, our review aims to identify future directions in molecular pathology toward the discovery of biomarkers and targeted treatments. The application of multidisciplinary approaches and prognostic models, including new biomarkers, could be beneficial in the prediction of PE.

Systemic lupus in the era of machine learning medicine

Artificial intelligence and machine learning applications are emerging as transformative technologies in medicine. With greater access to a diverse range of big datasets, researchers are turning to these powerful techniques for data analysis. Machine learning can reveal patterns and interactions between variables in large and complex datasets more accurately and efficiently than traditional statistical methods. Machine learning approaches open new possibilities for studying SLE, a multifactorial, highly heterogeneous and complex disease. Here, we discuss how machine learning methods are rapidly being integrated into the field of SLE research. Recent reports have focused on building prediction models and/or identifying novel biomarkers using both supervised and unsupervised techniques for understanding disease pathogenesis, early diagnosis and prognosis of disease. In this review, we will provide an overview of machine learning techniques to discuss current gaps, challenges and opportunities for SLE studies. External validation of most prediction models is still needed before clinical adoption. Utilisation of deep learning models, access to alternative sources of health data and increased awareness of the ethics, governance and regulations surrounding the use of artificial intelligence in medicine will help propel this exciting field forward.

Predicting risk of preterm birth in singleton pregnancies using machine learning algorithms

We aimed to develop, train, and validate machine learning models for predicting preterm birth (<37 weeks' gestation) in singleton pregnancies at different gestational intervals. Models were developed based on complete data from 22,603 singleton pregnancies from a prospective population-based cohort study that was conducted in 51 midwifery clinics and hospitals in Wenzhou City of China between 2014 and 2016. We applied Catboost, Random Forest, Stacked Model, Deep Neural Networks (DNN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms, as well as logistic regression, to conduct feature selection and predictive modeling. Feature selection was implemented based on permutation-based feature importance lists derived from the machine learning models including all features, using a balanced training data set. To develop prediction models, the top 10%, 25%, and 50% most important predictive features were selected. Prediction models were developed with the training data set with 5-fold cross-validation for internal validation. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) values. The CatBoost-based prediction model after 26 weeks' gestation performed best with an AUC value of 0.70 (0.67, 0.73), accuracy of 0.81, sensitivity of 0.47, and specificity of 0.83. Number of antenatal care visits before 24 weeks' gestation, aspartate aminotransferase level at registration, symphysis fundal height, maternal weight, abdominal circumference, and blood pressure emerged as strong predictors after 26 completed weeks. The application of machine learning on pregnancy surveillance data is a promising approach to predict preterm birth and we identified several modifiable antenatal predictors.

Maternal-fetal outcomes in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, with consideration of comorbidities: a retrospective cohort study in a large U.S. healthcare system

Background

Immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are likely to complicate maternal health. However, literature on patients with IMIDs undergoing pregnancy is scarce and often overlooks the presence of comorbidities. We aimed to evaluate the impact of IMIDs on adverse pregnancy outcomes after assessing and addressing any discrepancies in the distribution of covariates associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes between patients with and without IMIDs.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from an integrated U.S. community healthcare system that provides care across Alaska, California, Montana, Oregon, New Mexico, Texas, and Washington. We used a database containing all structured data from electronic health record (EHRs) and analyzed the cohort of pregnant people who had live births from January 1, 2013, through December 31, 2022. We investigated 12 selected IMIDs: psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease, rheumatoid arthritis, spondyloarthritis, multiple sclerosis, systemic lupus erythematosus, psoriatic arthritis, antiphospholipid syndrome, Sjögren's syndrome, vasculitides, sarcoidosis, and systemic sclerosis. We characterized patients with IMIDs prior to pregnancy (IMIDs group) based on pregnancy/maternal characteristics, comorbidities, and pre-pregnancy/prenatal immunomodulatory medications (IMMs) prescription patterns. We 1:1 propensity score matched the IMIDs cohort with people who had no IMID diagnoses prior to pregnancy (non-IMIDs cohort). Outcome measures were preterm birth (PTB), low birth weight (LBW), small for gestational age (SGA), and caesarean section.

Findings

Our analytic cohort had 365,075 people, of which 5784 were in the IMIDs group and 359,291 were in the non-IMIDs group. The prevalence rate of pregnancy of at least 20 weeks duration in people with a previous IMID diagnosis has doubled in the past ten years. 17% of the IMIDs group had at least one prenatal IMM prescription. Depending on the type of IMM, 48%-70% of the patients taking IMMs before pregnancy continued them throughout pregnancy. Overall, patients with one or more of these 12 IMIDs had increased risk of PTB (Relative risk (RR) = 1.1 [1.0, 1.3]; p = 0.08), LBW (RR = 1.2 [1.0, 1.4]; p = 0.02), SGA (RR = 1.1 [1.0, 1.2]; p = 0.03), and caesarean section (RR = 1.1 [1.1, 1.2], p < 0.0001) compared to a matched cohort of people without IMIDs. When adjusted for comorbidities, patients with rheumatoid arthritis (PTB RR = 1.2, p = 0.5; LBW RR = 1.1, p = 0.6) and/or inflammatory bowel disease (PTB RR = 1.2, p = 0.3; LBW RR = 1.0, p = 0.8) did not have significantly increased risk for PTB and LBW.

Interpretation

For patients who have been pregnant for 20 weeks or greater, the association between IMIDs and adverse pregnancy outcomes depends on both the nature of the IMID and the presence of comorbidities. Because this study was limited to pregnancies resulting in live births, results must be interpreted together with other studies on early pregnancy loss and stillbirth in patient with IMIDs.

Funding

National Institutes of Health.

Advances in Mass Spectrometry-Based Blood Metabolomics Profiling for Non-Cancer Diseases: A Comprehensive Review

Blood metabolomics profiling using mass spectrometry has emerged as a powerful approach for investigating non-cancer diseases and understanding their underlying metabolic alterations. Blood, as a readily accessible physiological fluid, contains a diverse repertoire of metabolites derived from various physiological systems. Mass spectrometry offers a universal and precise analytical platform for the comprehensive analysis of blood metabolites, encompassing proteins, lipids, peptides, glycans, and immunoglobulins. In this comprehensive review, we present an overview of the research landscape in mass spectrometry-based blood metabolomics profiling. While the field of metabolomics research is primarily focused on cancer, this review specifically highlights studies related to non-cancer diseases, aiming to bring attention to valuable research that often remains overshadowed. Employing natural language processing methods, we processed 507 articles to provide insights into the application of metabolomic studies for specific diseases and physiological systems. The review encompasses a wide range of non-cancer diseases, with emphasis on cardiovascular disease, reproductive disease, diabetes, inflammation, and immunodeficiency states. By analyzing blood samples, researchers gain valuable insights into the metabolic perturbations associated with these diseases, potentially leading to the identification of novel biomarkers and the development of personalized therapeutic approaches. Furthermore, we provide a comprehensive overview of various mass spectrometry approaches utilized in blood metabolomics research, including GC-MS, LC-MS, and others discussing their advantages and limitations. To enhance the scope, we propose including recent review articles supporting the applicability of GC×GC-MS for metabolomics-based studies. This addition will contribute to a more exhaustive understanding of the available analytical techniques. The Integration of mass spectrometry-based blood profiling into clinical practice holds promise for improving disease diagnosis, treatment monitoring, and patient outcomes. By unraveling the complex metabolic alterations associated with non-cancer diseases, researchers and healthcare professionals can pave the way for precision medicine and personalized therapeutic interventions. Continuous advancements in mass spectrometry technology and data analysis methods will further enhance the potential of blood metabolomics profiling in non-cancer diseases, facilitating its translation from the laboratory to routine clinical application.

Machine learning approaches to identify systemic lupus erythematosus in anti-nuclear antibody-positive patients using genomic data and electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Although the 2019 EULAR/ACR classification criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) has required at least a positive anti-nuclear antibody (ANA) titer (≥ 1:80), it remains challenging for clinicians to identify patients with SLE. This study aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) approach to assist in the detection of SLE patients using genomic data and electronic health records.

METHODS

Participants with a positive ANA (≥ 1:80) were enrolled from the Taiwan Precision Medicine Initiative cohort. The Taiwan Biobank version 2 array was used to detect single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data. Six ML models, Logistic Regression, Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, Gradient Tree Boosting, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), were used to identify SLE patients. The importance of the clinical and genetic features was determined by Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) values. A logistic regression model was applied to identify genetic variations associated with SLE in the subset of patients with an ANA equal to or exceeding 1:640.

RESULTS

A total of 946 SLE and 1,892 non-SLE controls were included in this analysis. Among the six ML models, RF and XGB demonstrated superior performance in the differentiation of SLE from non-SLE. The leading features in the SHAP diagram were anti-double strand DNA antibodies, ANA titers, AC4 ANA pattern, polygenic risk scores, complement levels, and SNPs. Additionally, in the subgroup with a high ANA titer (≥ 1:640), six SNPs positively associated with SLE and five SNPs negatively correlated with SLE were discovered.

CONCLUSIONS

ML approaches offer the potential to assist in diagnosing SLE and uncovering novel SNPs in a group of patients with autoimmunity.

Machine learning: Predicting hospital length of stay in patients admitted for lupus flares

BACKGROUND

Although rare, severe systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flares requiring hospitalization account for most of the direct costs of SLE care. New machine learning (ML) methods may optimize lupus care by predicting which patients will have a prolonged hospital length of stay (LOS). Our study uses a machine learning approach to predict the LOS in patients admitted for lupus flares and assesses which features prolong LOS.

METHODS

Our study sampled 5831 patients admitted for lupus flares from the National Inpatient Sample Database 2016-2018 and collected 90 demographics and comorbidity features. Four machine learning (ML) models were built (XGBoost, Linear Support Vector Machines, K Nearest Neighbors, and Logistic Regression) to predict LOS, and their performance was evaluated using multiple metrics, including accuracy, receiver operator area under the curve (ROC-AUC), precision-recall area under the curve (PR- AUC), and F1-score. Using the highest-performing model (XGBoost), we assessed the feature importance of our input features using Shapley value explanations (SHAP) to rank their impact on LOS.

RESULTS

Our XGB model performed the best with a ROC-AUC of 0.87, PR-AUC of 0.61, an F1 score of 0.56, and an accuracy of 95%. The features with the most significant impact on the model were "the need for a central line," "acute dialysis," and "acute renal failure." Other top features include those related to renal and infectious comorbidities.

CONCLUSION

Our results were consistent with the established literature and showed promise in ML over traditional methods of predictive analyses, even with rare rheumatic events such as lupus flare hospitalizations.

Maternal-fetal outcomes in patients with immune mediated inflammatory diseases, with consideration of comorbidities: a retrospective cohort study in a large U.S. healthcare system

Background

Immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are likely to complicate maternal health. However, literature data on patients with IMIDs undergoing pregnancy is scarce and often overlooks the impact of comorbidities.

Methods

We investigated 12 selected IMIDs: psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease, rheumatoid arthritis, spondyloarthritis, multiple sclerosis, systemic lupus erythematosus, psoriatic arthritis, antiphospholipid syndrome, Sjögren's syndrome, vasculitis, sarcoidosis, systemic sclerosis. We characterized patients with IMIDs prior to pregnancy (IMIDs group) based on pregnancy/maternal characteristics, comorbidities, and pre-pregnancy/prenatal immunomodulatory medications (IMMs) prescription patterns. We 1:1 propensity score matched the IMIDs cohort with people who had no IMID diagnoses prior to pregnancy (non-IMIDs cohort). Outcome measures were preterm birth (PTB), low birth weight (LBW), small for gestational age (SGA), and cesarean section.

Findings

The prevalence rate of pregnancy occurring with people with a previous IMID diagnosis has doubled in the past ten years. We identified 5,784 patients with IMIDs. 17% of the IMIDs group had at least one prenatal IMM prescription. Depending on the type of IMM, from 48% to 70% of the patients taking IMMs before pregnancy continued them throughout pregnancy. Patients with IMIDs had similar but slightly increased risks of PTB (Relative risk (RR)=1·1[1·0, 1·3]), LBW (RR=1·2 [1·0,1·4]), SGA (RR=1·1 [1·0,1·2]), and cesarean section (RR=1·1 [1·1,1·2]) compared to a matched cohort of people without IMIDs. Out of the 12 selected IMIDs, three for PTB, one for LBW, two for SGA, and six for cesarean section had results supporting increased risk.

Interpretation

The association between IMIDs and the increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes depend on both the nature of the IMID and the presence of comorbidities.

Application of Machine Learning Models in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) is a systemic autoimmune disease and is extremely heterogeneous in terms of immunological features and clinical manifestations. This complexity could result in a delay in the diagnosis and treatment introduction, with impacts on long-term outcomes. In this view, the application of innovative tools, such as machine learning models (MLMs), could be useful. Thus, the purpose of the present review is to provide the reader with information about the possible application of artificial intelligence in SLE patients from a medical perspective. To summarize, several studies have applied MLMs in large cohorts in different disease-related fields. In particular, the majority of studies focused on diagnosis and pathogenesis, disease-related manifestations, in particular Lupus Nephritis, outcomes and treatment. Nonetheless, some studies focused on peculiar features, such as pregnancy and quality of life. The review of published data demonstrated the proposal of several models with good performance, suggesting the possible application of MLMs in the SLE scenario.