Identifying patients with rheumatoid arthritis with moderate disease activity at risk of significant radiographic progression despite methotrexate treatment

Assessing prognosis and prediction of treatment response in early rheumatoid arthritis: systematic reviews

BACKGROUND

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, debilitating disease associated with reduced quality of life and substantial costs. It is unclear which tests and assessment tools allow the best assessment of prognosis in people with early RA and whether or not variables predict the response of patients to different drug treatments.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review evidence on the use of selected tests and assessment tools in patients with early RA (1) in the evaluation of a prognosis (review 1) and (2) as predictive markers of treatment response (review 2).

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases (e.g. MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science Conference Proceedings; searched to September 2016), registers, key websites, hand-searching of reference lists of included studies and key systematic reviews and contact with experts.

STUDY SELECTION

Review 1 - primary studies on the development, external validation and impact of clinical prediction models for selected outcomes in adult early RA patients. Review 2 - primary studies on the interaction between selected baseline covariates and treatment (conventional and biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs) on salient outcomes in adult early RA patients.

RESULTS

Review 1 - 22 model development studies and one combined model development/external validation study reporting 39 clinical prediction models were included. Five external validation studies evaluating eight clinical prediction models for radiographic joint damage were also included. c-statistics from internal validation ranged from 0.63 to 0.87 for radiographic progression (different definitions, six studies) and 0.78 to 0.82 for the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ). Predictive performance in external validations varied considerably. Three models [(1) Active controlled Study of Patients receiving Infliximab for the treatment of Rheumatoid arthritis of Early onset (ASPIRE) C-reactive protein (ASPIRE CRP), (2) ASPIRE erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ASPIRE ESR) and (3) Behandelings Strategie (BeSt)] were externally validated using the same outcome definition in more than one population. Results of the random-effects meta-analysis suggested substantial uncertainty in the expected predictive performance of models in a new sample of patients. Review 2 - 12 studies were identified. Covariates examined included anti-citrullinated protein/peptide anti-body (ACPA) status, smoking status, erosions, rheumatoid factor status, C-reactive protein level, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, swollen joint count (SJC), body mass index and vascularity of synovium on power Doppler ultrasound (PDUS). Outcomes examined included erosions/radiographic progression, disease activity, physical function and Disease Activity Score-28 remission. There was statistical evidence to suggest that ACPA status, SJC and PDUS status at baseline may be treatment effect modifiers, but not necessarily that they are prognostic of response for all treatments. Most of the results were subject to considerable uncertainty and were not statistically significant.

LIMITATIONS

The meta-analysis in review 1 was limited by the availability of only a small number of external validation studies. Studies rarely investigated the interaction between predictors and treatment.

SUGGESTED RESEARCH PRIORITIES

Collaborative research (including the use of individual participant data) is needed to further develop and externally validate the clinical prediction models. The clinical prediction models should be validated with respect to individual treatments. Future assessments of treatment by covariate interactions should follow good statistical practice.

CONCLUSIONS

Review 1 - uncertainty remains over the optimal prediction model(s) for use in clinical practice. Review 2 - in general, there was insufficient evidence that the effect of treatment depended on baseline characteristics.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016042402.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Predicting disease progression and poor outcomes in patients with moderately active rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Access to biologic DMARDs for RA is often restricted to those with severe disease. This systematic review aimed to identify prognostic factors in patients with moderate disease activity who may be at risk of disease progression and poor clinical outcomes.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane databases were searched (final search 22 September 2017), and data from patients with moderate disease [28-joint DAS (DAS28) >3.2-≤5.1] were included. Studies were evaluated according to the measure(s) of progression/poor outcome used: radiographic, disease activity or other indicators.

RESULTS

The searches identified 274 publications, of which 30 were selected for data extraction. Fourteen studies were prioritized, because they specifically analysed patients with moderate RA. Nine studies reported radiographic progression outcomes for 3241 patients, three studies reported disease activity progression for 1516 patients, and two studies reported other relevant outcomes for 2094 patients. Prognostic factors with consistent evidence for progression/poor outcome prediction were as follows: DAS28 ≥ 4.2, the presence of anti-CCP antibodies, and power Doppler ultrasound score ≥1. Some predictors were specific to either disease activity or radiographic progression.

CONCLUSION

Several criteria used in standard clinical practice were identified that have the potential to inform the selection of patients with moderate RA who are at greater risk of a poor outcome. A combination of two or more of these factors might enhance their predictive potential. Further work is required to derive clinical decision rules incorporating these factors.

Triple Oral Therapy Versus Antitumor Necrosis Factor Plus Methotrexate (MTX) in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis and Inadequate Response to MTX: A Systematic Literature Review

OBJECTIVE

For patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) who have an inadequate response to methotrexate (MTX), the relative effectiveness of the combination of conventional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARD) compared with the combination of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors and MTX, as second-line therapy, is uncertain. The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy and tolerance of triple oral DMARD therapy versus anti-TNF agents associated with MTX in patients with RA after MTX failure.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search of the literature up to November 2015 in MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane library, and abstracts from the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) and the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) meetings from 2006 to 2015. Articles were included if they were of randomized controlled trials of patients receiving triple oral combination therapy (TT; MTX + sulfasalazine + hydroxychloroquine) compared with anti-TNF agents plus MTX. Treatment effects were examined by disease activity [Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28)], ACR and EULAR response criteria, structural damage by the modified total Sharp score, and functional disability by the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ).

RESULTS

Our search identified 263 articles; only 5 fulfilled the selection criteria. Analysis of ACR and EULAR response criteria, DAS28, and modified Sharp scores favored anti-TNF agents combined with MTX. Functional disability (HAQ) and rates of adverse events did not differ between treatments.

CONCLUSION

In patients with RA in whom MTX has failed, the addition of a TNF antagonist to MTX may be a valid option, with better clinical outcomes and better radiographic results in the presence of poor prognostic factors. In the absence of poor prognostic factors and/or with contraindications to biologic agents, TT retains its place in the therapeutic strategy for RA in a currently restricted economic context.

Effect of Osteoprotegerin and Dickkopf-Related Protein 1 on Radiological Progression in Tightly Controlled Rheumatoid Arthritis

Objective

To analyze the association between circulating osteoprotegerin (OPG) and Dickkopf-related protein 1 (DKK-1) and radiological progression in patients with tightly controlled rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

Methods

Serum levels of OPG and DKK-1 were measured in 97 RA patients who were treated according to a treat-to-target strategy (T2T) aimed at remission (DAS28<2.6). Radiologic joint damage progression was assessed by changes in the total Sharp-van der Heijde score (SHS) on serial radiographs of the hands and feet. The independent association between these biomarker levels and the structural damage endpoint was examined using regression analysis

Results

The mean age of the 97 RA patients (68 women) at the time of the study was 54 ± 14 years, and the median disease duration was 1.6 ± 1.5 years. Most patients were seropositive for either RF or ACPA, and the large majority (76%) were in remission or had low disease activity.

After a median follow-up time of 3.3 ± 1.5 years (range, 1–7.5 yrs.), the mean total SHS annual progression was 0.88 ± 2.20 units. Fifty-two percent of the patients had no progression (defined as a total SHS of zero). The mean serum OPG level did not change significantly over the study period (from 3.9 ± 1.8 to 4.07 ± 2.23 pmol/L), whereas the mean serum DKK-1 level decreased, although not significantly (from 29.9 ± 10.9 to 23.6 ± 18.8 pmol/L).

In the multivariate analysis, the predictive factors increasing the likelihood of total SHS progression were age (OR per year = 1.10; p = 0.003) and a high mean C-reactive protein level over the study period (OR = 1.29; p = 0.005). Circulating OPG showed a protective effect reducing the likelihood of joint space narrowing by 60% (95% CI: 0.38–0.94) and the total SHS progression by 48% (95% CI: 0.28–0.83). The DKK-1 levels were not associated with radiological progression.

Conclusion

In patients with tightly controlled RA, serum OPG was inversely associated with progression of joint destruction. This biomarker may be useful in combination with other risk factors to improve prediction in patients in clinical remission or low disease activity state.