Revised simulation model does not predict rebound in gonorrhoea prevalence where core groups are treated in the presence of antimicrobial resistance

Impacts of observation frequency on proximity contact data and modeled transmission dynamics

Transmission of many communicable diseases depends on proximity contacts among humans. Modeling the dynamics of proximity contacts can help determine whether an outbreak is likely to trigger an epidemic. While the advent of commodity mobile devices has eased the collection of proximity contact data, battery capacity and associated costs impose tradeoffs between the observation frequency and scanning duration used for contact detection. The choice of observation frequency should depend on the characteristics of a particular pathogen and accompanying disease. We downsampled data from five contact network studies, each measuring participant-participant contact every 5 minutes for durations of four or more weeks. These studies included a total of 284 participants and exhibited different community structures. We found that for epidemiological models employing high-resolution proximity data, both the observation method and observation frequency configured to collect proximity data impact the simulation results. This impact is subject to the population's characteristics as well as pathogen infectiousness. By comparing the performance of two observation methods, we found that in most cases, half-hourly Bluetooth discovery for one minute can collect proximity data that allows agent-based transmission models to produce a reasonable estimation of the attack rate, but more frequent Bluetooth discovery is preferred to model individual infection risks or for highly transmissible pathogens. Our findings inform the empirical basis for guidelines to inform data collection that is both efficient and effective.

Population-level mathematical modeling of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Mathematical transmission models are increasingly used to guide public health interventions for infectious diseases, particularly in the context of emerging pathogens; however, the contribution of modeling to the growing issue of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) remains unclear. Here, we systematically evaluate publications on population-level transmission models of AMR over a recent period (2006-2016) to gauge the state of research and identify gaps warranting further work.

METHODS

We performed a systematic literature search of relevant databases to identify transmission studies of AMR in viral, bacterial, and parasitic disease systems. We analyzed the temporal, geographic, and subject matter trends, described the predominant medical and behavioral interventions studied, and identified central findings relating to key pathogens.

RESULTS

We identified 273 modeling studies; the majority of which (> 70%) focused on 5 infectious diseases (human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), influenza virus, Plasmodium falciparum (malaria), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB), and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)). AMR studies of influenza and nosocomial pathogens were mainly set in industrialized nations, while HIV, TB, and malaria studies were heavily skewed towards developing countries. The majority of articles focused on AMR exclusively in humans (89%), either in community (58%) or healthcare (27%) settings. Model systems were largely compartmental (76%) and deterministic (66%). Only 43% of models were calibrated against epidemiological data, and few were validated against out-of-sample datasets (14%). The interventions considered were primarily the impact of different drug regimens, hygiene and infection control measures, screening, and diagnostics, while few studies addressed de novo resistance, vaccination strategies, economic, or behavioral changes to reduce antibiotic use in humans and animals.

CONCLUSIONS

The AMR modeling literature concentrates on disease systems where resistance has been long-established, while few studies pro-actively address recent rise in resistance in new pathogens or explore upstream strategies to reduce overall antibiotic consumption. Notable gaps include research on emerging resistance in Enterobacteriaceae and Neisseria gonorrhoeae; AMR transmission at the animal-human interface, particularly in agricultural and veterinary settings; transmission between hospitals and the community; the role of environmental factors in AMR transmission; and the potential of vaccines to combat AMR.

Application of dynamic modelling techniques to the problem of antibacterial use and resistance: a scoping review

Selective pressure exerted by the widespread use of antibacterial drugs is accelerating the development of resistant bacterial populations. The purpose of this scoping review was to summarise the range of studies that use dynamic models to analyse the problem of bacterial resistance in relation to antibacterial use in human and animal populations. A comprehensive search of the peer-reviewed literature was performed and non-duplicate articles (n = 1486) were screened in several stages. Charting questions were used to extract information from the articles included in the final subset (n = 81). Most studies (86%) represent the system of interest with an aggregate model; individual-based models are constructed in only seven articles. There are few examples of inter-host models outside of human healthcare (41%) and community settings (38%). Resistance is modelled for a non-specific bacterial organism and/or antibiotic in 40% and 74% of the included articles, respectively. Interventions with implications for antibacterial use were investigated in 67 articles and included changes to total antibiotic consumption, strategies for drug management and shifts in category/class use. The quality of documentation related to model assumptions and uncertainty varies considerably across this subset of articles. There is substantial room to improve the transparency of reporting in the antibacterial resistance modelling literature as is recommended by best practice guidelines.

Impact of Rapid Susceptibility Testing and Antibiotic Selection Strategy on the Emergence and Spread of Antibiotic Resistance in Gonorrhea

Background

Increasing antibiotic resistance limits treatment options for gonorrhea. We examined the impact of a hypothetical point-of-care (POC) test reporting antibiotic susceptibility profiles on slowing resistance spread.

Methods

A mathematical model describing gonorrhea transmission incorporated resistance emergence probabilities and fitness costs associated with resistance based on characteristics of ciprofloxacin (A), azithromycin (B), and ceftriaxone (C). We evaluated time to 1% and 5% prevalence of resistant strains among all isolates with the following: (1) empiric treatment (B and C), and treatment guided by POC tests determining susceptibility to (2) A only and (3) all 3 antibiotics.

Results

Continued empiric treatment without POC testing was projected to result in >5% of isolates being resistant to both B and C within 15 years. Use of either POC test in 10% of identified cases delayed this by 5 years. The 3 antibiotic POC test delayed the time to reach 1% prevalence of triply-resistant strains by 6 years, whereas the A-only test resulted in no delay. Results were less sensitive to assumptions about fitness costs and test characteristics with increasing test uptake.

Conclusions

Rapid diagnostics reporting antibiotic susceptibility may extend the usefulness of existing antibiotics for gonorrhea treatment, but ongoing monitoring of resistance patterns will be critical.

Cost-Effectiveness of Dual Antimicrobial Therapy for Gonococcal Infections Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

In response to the rising threat of resistance to first-line antibiotics for gonorrhea, international guidelines recommend dual antimicrobial therapy. However, some countries continue to recommend monotherapy. We assess the cost-effectiveness of dual therapy with ceftriaxone and azithromycin compared with monotherapy with ceftriaxone, for control of gonorrhea among men who have sex with men in the Netherlands.

METHODS

We developed a transmission model and calculated the numbers of new gonorrhea infections, consultations at health care specialists, tests, and antibiotic doses. With these numbers, we calculated costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) with each treatment; and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of dual therapy compared to monotherapy. The impact of gonorrhea on human immunodeficiency virus transmission was not included in the model.

RESULTS

In the absence of initial resistance, dual therapy can delay the spread of ceftriaxone resistance by at least 15 years, compared to monotherapy. In the beginning, when there is no resistance, dual therapy results in high additional costs, without any QALY gains. When resistance spreads over time, the additional costs of dual therapy decline, the gained QALYs increase, the ICER drops off and, after 50 years, falls below &OV0556;20,000 per QALY gained. If azithromycin resistance is initially prevalent, resistance to the first-line treatment rises almost equally fast with both treatment strategies and the ICER remains extremely high.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with ceftriaxone monotherapy, dual therapy with ceftriaxone and azithromycin can considerably delay the spread of ceftriaxone resistance, but may only be cost-effective in the long run and in the absence of initial resistance.