P90 Osteoporosis in Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis (NCFBr) Adults: Abstract P90 Table 1

Design of a Clinical Decision Support System for Fracture Prediction Using Imbalanced Dataset

More than 1 billion people suffer from chronic respiratory diseases worldwide, accounting for more than 4 million deaths annually. Inhaled corticosteroid is a popular medication for treating chronic respiratory diseases. Its side effects include decreased bone mineral density and osteoporosis. The aims of this study are to investigate the association of inhaled corticosteroids and fracture and to design a clinical support system for fracture prediction. The data of patients aged 20 years and older, who had visited healthcare centers and been prescribed with inhaled corticosteroids within 2002-2010, were retrieved from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). After excluding patients diagnosed with hip fracture or vertebrate fractures before using inhaled corticosteroid, a total of 11645 patients receiving inhaled corticosteroid therapy were included for this study. Among them, 1134 (9.7%) were diagnosed with hip fracture or vertebrate fracture. The statistical results showed that demographic information, chronic respiratory diseases and comorbidities, and corticosteroid-related variables (cumulative dose, mean exposed daily dose, follow-up duration, and exposed duration) were significantly different between fracture and nonfracture patients. The clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) were designed with integrated genetic algorithm (GA) and support vector machine (SVM) by training and validating the models with balanced training sets obtained by random and cluster-based undersampling methods and testing with the imbalanced NHIRD dataset. Two different objective functions were adopted for obtaining optimal models with best predictive performance. The predictive performance of the CDSSs exhibits a sensitivity of 69.84-77.00% and an AUC of 0.7495-0.7590. It was concluded that long-term use of inhaled corticosteroids may induce osteoporosis and exhibit higher incidence of hip or vertebrate fractures. The accumulated dose of ICS and OCS therapies should be continuously monitored, especially for patients with older age and women after menopause, to prevent from exceeding the maximum dosage.

Increased risk of lung cancer among patients with bronchiectasis: a nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

We conducted a longitudinal nationwide cohort study in Taiwan to determine whether patients with bronchiectasis are at an increased risk of developing lung cancer.

METHODS

This study investigated the incidence and risk for lung cancer in 57 576 patients newly hospitalized with bronchiectasis between 1998 and 2010 from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. The comparison cohort comprised 230 304 individuals from the general population without bronchiectasis. The follow-up period was from the time of the initial hospitalization for bronchiectasis to the date of a lung cancer diagnosis, censoring, or 31 December 2011. We used Cox proportional hazard regression models to analyse the risk of lung cancer by including the variables of sex, age and comorbidities.

RESULTS

The incidence of lung cancer was higher in patients with bronchiectasis than in the comparison cohort (4.58 vs. 2.02 per 1000 person-years). The bronchiectasis patients exhibited a 2.36-fold increased risk of lung cancer compared with the comparison cohort after adjustment for age, sex and comorbidities (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 2.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.19-2.55). The sex-specific bronchiectasis cohort to comparison cohort revealed that the aHR was 2.41 (95% CI = 2.11-2.76) for the women and 2.33 (95% CI = 2.12-2.56) for the men. The incidence rate of lung cancer increased as age increased in both cohorts.

CONCLUSION

This nationwide study determined that the patients with bronchiectasis exhibited an increased risk of lung cancer compared with the general population.