Should NICE reconsider the 2016 UK guidelines on TB contact tracing? A cost-effectiveness analysis of contact investigations in London

Cost-effectiveness of active tuberculosis screening among high-risk populations in low tuberculosis incidence countries: a systematic review, 2008 to 2023

BackgroundIn countries with a low TB incidence (≤ 10 cases/100,000 population), active pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) mostly affects vulnerable populations with limited access to healthcare. Thus, passive case-finding systems may not be successful in detecting and treating cases and preventing further transmission. Active and cost-effective search strategies can overcome this problem.AimWe aimed to review the evidence on the cost-effectiveness (C-E) of active PTB screening programmes among high-risk populations in low TB incidence countries.MethodsWe performed a systematic literature search covering 2008-2023 on PubMed, Embase, Center for Reviews and Dissemination, including Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), National Health Services Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Global Index Medicus and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL).ResultsWe retrieved 6,318 articles and included nine in this review. All included studies had an active case-finding approach and used chest X-ray, tuberculin skin test, interferon-gamma release assay and a symptoms questionnaire for screening. The results indicate that screening immigrants from countries with a TB incidence > 40 cases per 100,000 population and other vulnerable populations as individuals from isolated communities, people experiencing homelessness, those accessing drug treatment services and contacts, is cost-effective in low-incidence countries.ConclusionIn low-incidence countries, targeting high-risk groups is C-E. However, due to the data heterogenicity, we were unable to compare C-E. Harmonisation of the methods for C-E analysis is needed and would facilitate comparisons. To outline comprehensive screening and its subsequent C-E analysis, researchers should consider multiple factors influencing screening methods and outcomes.

Using molecular testing and whole-genome sequencing for tuberculosis diagnosis in a low-burden setting: a cost-effectiveness analysis using transmission-dynamic modelling

BACKGROUND

Despite progress in TB control in low-burden countries like England and Wales, there are still diagnostic delays. Molecular testing and/or whole-genome sequencing (WGS) provide more rapid diagnosis but their cost-effectiveness is relatively unexplored in low-burden settings.

METHODS

An integrated transmission-dynamic health economic model is used to assess the cost-effectiveness of using WGS to replace culture-based drug-sensitivity testing, versus using molecular testing versus combined use of WGS and molecular testing, for routine TB diagnosis. The model accounts for the effects of faster appropriate treatment in reducing transmission, benefiting health and reducing future treatment costs. Cost-effectiveness is assessed using incremental net benefit (INB) over a 10-year horizon with a quality-adjusted life-year valued at £20 000, and discounting at 3.5% per year.

RESULTS

WGS shortens the time to drug sensitivity testing and treatment modification where necessary, reducing treatment and hospitalisation costs, with an INB of £7.1 million. Molecular testing shortens the time to TB diagnosis and treatment. Initially, this causes an increase in annual costs of treatment, but averting transmissions and future active TB disease subsequently, resulting in cost savings and health benefits to achieve an INB of £8.6 million (GeneXpert MTB/RIF) or £11.1 million (Xpert-Ultra). Combined use of Xpert-Ultra and WGS is the optimal strategy we consider, with an INB of £16.5 million.

CONCLUSION

Routine use of WGS or molecular testing is cost-effective in a low-burden setting, and combined use is the most cost-effective option. Adoption of these technologies can help low-burden countries meet the WHO End TB Strategy milestones, particularly the UK, which still has relatively high TB rates.

The impact of HIV infection on tuberculosis transmission in a country with low tuberculosis incidence: a national retrospective study using molecular epidemiology

BACKGROUND

HIV is known to increase the likelihood of reactivation of latent tuberculosis to active TB disease; however, its impact on tuberculosis infectiousness and consequent transmission is unclear, particularly in low-incidence settings.

METHODS

National surveillance data from England, Wales and Northern Ireland on tuberculosis cases in adults from 2010 to 2014, strain typed using 24-locus mycobacterial-interspersed-repetitive-units-variable-number-tandem-repeats was used retrospectively to identify clusters of tuberculosis cases, subdivided into 'first' and 'subsequent' cases. Firstly, we used zero-inflated Poisson regression models to examine the association between HIV status and the number of subsequent clustered cases (a surrogate for tuberculosis infectiousness) in a strain type cluster. Secondly, we used logistic regression to examine the association between HIV status and the likelihood of being a subsequent case in a cluster (a surrogate for recent acquisition of tuberculosis infection) compared to the first case or a non-clustered case (a surrogate for reactivation of latent infection).

RESULTS

We included 18,864 strain-typed cases, 2238 were the first cases of clusters and 8471 were subsequent cases. Seven hundred and fifty-nine (4%) were HIV-positive. Outcome 1: HIV-positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases who were the first in a cluster had fewer subsequent cases associated with them (mean 0.6, multivariable incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.75 [0.65-0.86]) than those HIV-negative (mean 1.1). Extra-pulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) cases with HIV were less likely to be the first case in a cluster compared to HIV-negative EPTB cases. EPTB cases who were the first case had a higher mean number of subsequent cases (mean 2.5, IRR (3.62 [3.12-4.19]) than those HIV-negative (mean 0.6). Outcome 2: tuberculosis cases with HIV co-infection were less likely to be a subsequent case in a cluster (odds ratio 0.82 [0.69-0.98]), compared to being the first or a non-clustered case.

CONCLUSIONS

Outcome 1: pulmonary tuberculosis-HIV patients were less infectious than those without HIV. EPTB patients with HIV who were the first case in a cluster had a higher number of subsequent cases and thus may be markers of other undetected cases, discoverable by contact investigations. Outcome 2: tuberculosis in HIV-positive individuals was more likely due to reactivation than recent infection, compared to those who were HIV-negative.

Contacts of underserved tuberculosis patients have higher odds of TB disease in North West England: a cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between patients' social risk factors and the risk of tuberculous infection and TB disease among their contacts in England.

DESIGN

This was a cohort study of all TB cases from North West England diagnosed between 27 March 2012 and 28 June 2016. The social risk factors of TB cases were evaluated to estimate their need for enhanced case management (ECM), from 0 (standard of care) to 3 (intensive social support).

RESULTS

A total of 2139 cases and their 10 019 contacts met the eligibility criteria. Being a contact of a patient with smear-positive TB with high ECM or being of Black Caribbean ethnicity was independently associated with greater odds of active TB disease (smear-positive vs. smear-negative, OR 5.3, 95%CI 3.2-8.7; ECM-3 vs. ECM-0, OR 2.2, 95%CI 1.01-5.0; Black Caribbean vs. White, OR 7.4, 95%CI 2.1-25). Being a contact of a patient with smear-positive TB or of Black Caribbean ethnicity was also independently associated with greater odds of tuberculous infection (smear-positive vs. smear-negative, OR 5.3, 95%CI 3.8-7.3; and Black Caribbean vs. White, OR 6.7, 95%CI 2.0-25).

CONCLUSIONS

The social complexity and ethnicity of patients were associated with tuberculous infection and TB disease in their contacts.