Estimating cigarette tax avoidance and evasion: evidence from a national sample of littered packs

A Research Agenda to Inform Cannabis Regulation: How Science Can Shape Policy

In the United States, changes to cannabis policy have outpaced scientific knowledge about cannabis, its effects, and the impacts of different policy approaches. Research barriers stem from key federal policies, including strict drug scheduling of cannabis, which comprehensively hinder the ability to conduct cannabis research, affecting state markets, evidence-based regulation, and scientific gains that could more effectively shape policy moving forward. The Cannabis Regulators Association (CANNRA) is a nonpartisan nonprofit organization that convenes and supports government agencies to facilitate information exchange and learning from existing cannabis regulations across US states and territories and other governmental jurisdictions. This commentary outlines a research agenda that, if implemented, would address critical gaps in the science that cannabis regulators have identified in terms of knowledge regarding: (1) medicinal use of cannabis; (2) cannabis product safety; (3) cannabis consumer behaviors; (4) policies to promote equity and reduce disparities, both in the industry and more broadly in communities affected by the past criminalization of cannabis; (5) policies to prevent youth consumption and promote public health and safety; and (6) policies to reduce the illicit market and associated harms. The research agenda outlined here is the result of both formal discussions through CANNRA-wide meetings and informal discussions cannabis regulators have had as part of CANNRA committees. This research agenda is not all encompassing but rather highlights areas of research that have vital importance for cannabis regulation and policy implementation. Although many organizations weigh in on research needs related to cannabis, cannabis regulators (ie, the individuals implementing policies legalizing cannabis in states and territories) have generally not had a voice at the table advocating for specific research to be conducted. Their perspective representing the government agencies closest to the ground in terms of experiencing the impacts of current cannabis policy is essential to furthering quality, practical research that can advance informed and effective policy.

Illicit tobacco trade: empty pack survey in eight Argentinean cities

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of illicit tobacco trade (ITT) and different ITT modes-tax stamp counterfeiting and smuggling-in Argentina.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study using an empty tobacco pack survey with a simple random cluster sampling design. Classification as licit/illicit using forensic analysis of tax stamps and packs and econometric modelling.

SETTING

Cities of Buenos Aires, La Matanza, Cordoba, Rosario, Mendoza, Neuquen, Posadas, Salta; January-June 2019.

RESULTS

Of a total sample of 15 658 packs, 83.2% were manufactured in Argentina and 16.8% were foreign packs. Overall ITT prevalence-weighted by district population size-was estimated at 13.7%, where 6.1% was attributable to stamp counterfeiting-that is, a forged stamp not issued by the national tax authority-and 7.6% to contraband smuggling of foreign cigarette packs-that is, illicit trade of packs across national borders.

CONCLUSIONS

The ITT problem in Argentina seems to be equally represented by counterfeiting of tobacco tax stamps on packs with domestic features and smuggling of foreign cigarette packs. Foreign cigarettes represent a minor component of the pack sampled in most of the country, except in Salta and Posadas, which are located close to the border with Paraguay. It is essential to implement an effective track-and-trace system including the monitoring of tax stamp authenticity and increase border control to block the entry of smuggled products, particularly from Paraguay. Reducing ITT is necessary to ensure the effectiveness of tobacco taxation measures.

Illicit trade in tobacco products: recent trends and coming challenges

BACKGROUND

Illicit trade in tobacco products is a menace to the goal of eliminating tobacco consumption. Although tax policy is very effective in reducing consumption, illicit trade can reduce (though not eliminate) its effectiveness.

METHODS

This article discusses the recent evolution of illicit trade and the context in which it occurred; the new methods that have been developed to measure it and, finally, the challenges in the next phase in the control of illicit trade.

RESULTS

There has been a remarkable stability in the penetration of cigarette illicit trade in the past decade. Such a stability, however, occurred in a world of shrinking tobacco consumption, implying a decreasing absolute illicit trade. Most countries have progressed in increasing tobacco taxes and changing tax structures. Prices of illicit cigarettes follow legal cigarette prices. Concomitantly, many new studies, independent from the tobacco industry, have been conducted allowing for better understanding of the illicit trade and providing inputs to its solution. The entry into force of the WHO FCTC Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products provides both a global and a national policy framework to further curb illicit trade. Instruments such as track-and-trace systems must be promoted and adopted to maximise reductions in illicit trade.

CONCLUSIONS

Global efforts to curb the illicit trade in tobacco products are gaining momentum and progress has been made in many parts of the world. The next decade can witness a decisive decrease in tobacco consumption, both licit and illicit, if countries further engage in international collaboration.

Local Tobacco 21 Policies are Associated With Lower Odds of Tobacco Use Among Adolescents

INTRODUCTION

Tobacco 21 (T21) policies have shown promise in reducing cigarette use among adolescents. This study examined whether local T21 policies affected adolescent use of a variety of tobacco products and whether results differed by grade level.

METHODS

We used repeated cross-sectional data from eighth, ninth, and eleventh-grade respondents to the 2016 (n = 107 981) and 2019 (n = 102 196) Minnesota Student Surveys. Generalized estimating equations modeled eight adolescent tobacco use outcomes in 2019 (past 30-day use of any tobacco, cigarettes, cigars, e-cigarettes, hookah, chewing tobacco, flavored tobacco, and multiple products) by T21 exposure, defined as respondents' attendance at a school within a jurisdiction with T21 policy implementation between the two surveys. Models controlled for demographic characteristics and product-specific baseline tobacco use at the school level in 2016 and were stratified by grade.

RESULTS

After adjusting for baseline tobacco use and other demographics, T21-exposed eighth and ninth-grade students had significantly lower odds of tobacco use than unexposed peers in five of eight models, i.e. any tobacco (aOR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.74, 0.87), cigarettes (aOR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67, 0.99), e-cigarettes (aOR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.71, 0.85), flavored tobacco (aOR = 0.79, CI: 0.70, 0.89), and dual/poly tobacco (aOR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.65, 0.92). T21-exposed eleventh-grade students did not differ significantly in their odds of any tobacco use outcomes relative to their unexposed peers.

CONCLUSIONS

T21 exposure is associated with lower odds of multiple forms of tobacco use, particularly among younger adolescent populations, supporting the implementation of T21 policies to reduce tobacco use in this population.

Dataset on discarded cigarette packs in Mongolia

This dataset documents the variety of discarded cigarette packs available in Mongolia, specifically in the capital city (Ulaanbaatar) and 2 provinces (Dornod and Bayan Ulgii). Both of these provinces border China and the Russian Federation. Discarded cigarette packs were collected from the ground or from the top of waste bins. Packs were collected over three rounds of data collection (round 1: April 2017, round 2: August/September 2017 and round 3: May/June 2018). 7494 packs were collected in round 1, 5852 packs in round 2 and 6258 packs in round 3. The dataset consists of 25 variables which describe each pack in detail, including information on excise tax stamps, health warnings, tar and nicotine levels, brand name, name of manufacturer, and importer, among others. This data is freely available on the DataFirst data repository (https://www.datafirst.uct.ac.za/dataportal/index.php/catalog/772) after creating a user profile. This data was used for a research article titled "The impact of tax increases on illicit cigarette trade in Mongolia" which was published by Tobacco Control in 2019 (https://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/early/2019/06/18/tobaccocontrol-2018-054904). The paper is co-authored by Ross H, Vellios N, Batmunkh T, Enkhtsogt M and Rossouw L.

A discarded cigar package survey in New York City: indicators of non-compliance with local flavoured tobacco restrictions

INTRODUCTION

In 2009, New York City (NYC) restricted the sale of flavoured tobacco products. We assessed product availability as a proxy for potential non-compliance by analysing discarded cigar, cigarillo and blunt wrap packages in New York City.

METHODS

A discarded cigar package survey was conducted in 2016, in a stratified random sample of 94 block groups in NYC resulting in the collection of 886 discarded cigar packages. Each package was coded for brand name, flavour description (explicit and implicit) and size.

FINDINGS

Overall, 19.2% of the cigar packages were explicitly flavoured. An additional 9.4% of the packages reflected implicit flavours. Explicit flavoured cigar packages were at increased odds of being found in Staten Island (adjusted OR (AOR)=3.96, 95% CI=1.66 to 9.46), in packaging size of two or three (AOR=8.49, 95% CI=4.24 to 17.02) or four or more (AOR=4.26, 95% CI=1.95 to 9.30).

CONCLUSION

Nearly one out of three cigar packages were flavoured products suggesting a problematic level of non-compliance and continued availability. Potential non-compliance is likely fueled by licensed wholesalers and retailers who continue to sell restricted flavoured products. Some retailers may be unaware that implicitly named cigars are typically flavoured and are, therefore, illegal. This lack of awareness of implicit flavoured cigars may be exacerbated by NYC's lack of education or enforcement specific to implicitly flavoured tobacco products.

Tobacco industry data on illicit tobacco trade: a systematic review of existing assessments

OBJECTIVE

To examine the quality of tobacco industry-funded data on the illicit tobacco trade (ITT) through a systematic review of existing assessments of industry-funded data on ITT.

DATA SOURCES

Papers and reports assessing tobacco industry-funded data on ITT were obtained via searches of 8 academic databases, Google searches and correspondence with ITT experts.

STUDY SELECTION

Inclusion criteria identified 35 English-language papers containing an original assessment of tobacco industry-funded data.

DATA EXTRACTION

Using a coding framework, information was extracted from the assessments regarding the quality of tobacco industry data. Documents were second-coded, achieving 94% intercoder reliability with all disagreements resolved.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Of the 35 assessments reviewed, 31 argued that tobacco industry estimates were higher than independent estimates. Criticisms identified problems with data collection (29), analytical methods (22) and presentation of results (21), which resulted in inflated ITT estimates or data on ITT that were presented in a misleading manner. Lack of transparency from data collection right through to presentation of findings was a key issue with insufficient information to allow replication of the findings frequently cited.

CONCLUSIONS

Tobacco industry data on ITT are not reliable. At present, the tobacco industry continues to fund and disseminate ITT research through initiatives such as PMI IMPACT. If industry data on ITT cannot meet the standards of accuracy and transparency set by high-quality research publications, a solution may be to tax tobacco companies and administer the resulting funds to experts, independent of the tobacco industry, who use previously developed reliable models for measuring ITT.

Limited indications of tax stamp discordance and counterfeiting on cigarette packs purchased in tobacco retailers, 97 counties, USA, 2012

Increasing the per-unit cost of tobacco products is one of the strongest interventions for tobacco control. In jurisdictions with higher taxes in the U.S., however, cigarette pack litter studies show a substantial proportion of littered packs lack the appropriate tax stamp. More limited but still present counterfeiting also exists. We sought to examine the role of tobacco retailers as a source for untaxed and counterfeit products. Data collectors purchased Newport Green (menthol) or Marlboro Red cigarette packs in a national probability-based sample of tobacco retailers (in 97 counties) from June–October 2012. They made no effort to buy counterfeit or untaxed cigarettes. In this cross-sectional study, we assessed the presence, tax authority, and type (low-tech thermal vs. encrypted) of cigarette pack tax stamps; concordance of tax stamps with where the pack was purchased; and, for Marlboro cigarettes, publicly available visible indicators of counterfeiting. We purchased 2147 packs of which 2033 had tax stamps. Packs missing stamps were in states that do not require them. We found very limited discordance between store location and tax stamp(s) (< 1%). However, a substantial minority of cigarette packs had damaged tax stamps (13%). This occurred entirely with low-tech tax stamps and was not identified with encrypted tax stamps. We found no clear evidence of counterfeit products. Almost all tax stamps matched the location of purchase. Litter studies may be picking up legal tax avoidance instead of illegal tax evasion or, alternatively, purchase of illicit products requires special request by the purchaser.

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This study purchased 2147 cigarette packs in 97 U.S. counties.

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No clear indicators of cigarette counterfeiting were found.

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Virtually all packs had the correct tax stamp affixed.

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Inspection protocols for illicit cigarettes should consider real-world behaviors.